After an extended break following their Thursday Night Football loss to the Jets, the Patriots are back on the road in Week 4, traveling across the country to San Francisco to face a battle-tested but banged-up 49ers team.
"What I will say is the challenge for us is just in the front: offensive line and defensive line," said Jerod Mayo this week. "They are a do-what-they-do type of team, and we know what they're going to do, the fans know what they're going to do, but you still have to stop them. They have a lot of good players on that team, offensively and defensively, All-Pro-caliber players almost at every level if you really look at the roster. So, it's definitely a challenge, and I think the guys – I tell them all the time, look at it as an opportunity to go out there and perform."
Here's what to watch as the Patriots try to knock off one of the NFL's best teams and improve their season record to 2-2.
Jacoby Brissett: According to Next Gen Stats, no starting quarterback has seen a greater pressure percentage (47.6%) in the NFL through three weeks. Brissett's ability to avoid turnovers has largely kept the Patriots offensive boat afloat despite the consistent pass rush pressure that has them to 22nd in DVOA, 31st in points and 32nd in total yards. Figuring out how to not only survive but thrive in the face of pressure will be a difficult but necessary next step for the offense to take and it all starts with Brissett and his five main protectors. San Francisco has the pass rushers to dominate with four players, stressing the communication and synchronicity along the Patriots offensive front.
Offensive Line: The Patriots offensive line is facing further health questions, with Michael Jordan and Vederian Lowe missing early practices this week. The good news is Sidy Sow has been back in the mix to provide interior reinforcements. Meanwhile, rookie Caedan Wallace appears to have dodged an injury himself after leaving the Jets game in the fourth quarter and is in line for this second-straight start at left tackle. The Patriots need to reestablish some continuity along the line, and Sow's return will help. But it looks like they'll be forced to do some juggling again this week, with a fourth starting combination in as many weeks a big possibility.
"It's more about reps," said Mayo this week of the o-line. "The protections that we run, a lot of teams run the same protection. What I showed them this morning, any time you have a free runner through the A or the B gap, it gives the quarterback no chance. We have to be inside-out in all of our protections. If the quarterback can see an edge defender being the free player, then he can make everyone else right, but that hasn't been the case here."
Pop Douglas – The Patriots offense showed a concerted effort to get Douglas involved against the Jets, however much of his production came in the second half with the game slipping from the team's grasp. Still, some promising offensive elements have emerged from each of the team's first three games. The run game has been there out of the gate, the tight ends have made their plays and it was Douglas igniting some production in the passing game against the Jets. It must continue and grow more robustly beyond the second-year receiver. Ja'Lynn Polk, Tyquan Thornton and K.J. Osborn will be needed to target the 49ers secondary. Next week, Kendrick Bourne could re-enter the mix.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson has 224 rushing yards on 52 carries this season, a 4.3 yards-per-attempt average and five catches for 15 yards as the Patriots most prolific offender this year. But it's the three fumbles in three games stat that is on many minds after Stevenson finally got a bad bounce and lost his first one of the season against the Jets. Stevenson had two fumbles as a rookie in 2021 and followed that up with four in 2022. But last year he reversed the trend with just one fumble all season. Now, in 2024, it's become a concern and one that defenses will target. The Patriots need to rely on Stevenson, but he needs to be reliable.
"It's no secret that Dre [Rhamondre Stevenson] has fumbled the ball three times in three games," said Mayo. "Now you become a target. Every single team, not just for Rhamondre [Stevenson], but for everyone who handles the ball. We're all going to be targets until we can show that we can protect the ball."
Linebackers – It wasn't that surprising to see the Patriots linebacker group missed Ja'Whaun Bentley on a short week against the physical Jets team. Bentley's leadership and tackling ability are irreplaceable, but the defense must figure out how to move forward without him. Jahlani Tavai and Raekwon McMillan were credited with five combined missed tackles of 11 total by the defense against the Jets. They'll get an even tougher test against standout fill-in Jordan Mason and the potent 49ers rushing attack that includes a little of everything. Tavai and McMillan's speed should be put to use against Kyle Shanahan's varied attack.
Brock Purdy – Purdy is being put to the test this season as his offense has been battered with key injuries to key players. He continues to be incredibly accurate and efficient, completing 72.6% of his passes with four touchdowns to one interception. Despite three touchdown throws against the Rams last week, Purdy couldn't produce another touchdown score to outpace Los Angeles in the team's second-straight loss. Preventing the big plays and holding San Fran to just three fourth-quarter points is a tough task but a nice strategy if the Patriots can recreate the Rams game-ending performance. The bigger question is if the offense can produce the big plays necessary to execute a comeback like that.
"It's a lot of window dressing, but the core concepts are pretty much still the same," said Mayo of Purdy and the offense. "Every single play, you're going to see motion, and you're going to see exotic types of motions. They're trying to get you to adjust a certain way."
Jauan Jennings – Jennings made the most of his opportunity against the Rams with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle sitting out, delivering a breakout 175-yard, three-touchdown performance that illustrated just how deep the weaponry runs for San Fran. Through three weeks, the Patriots defense has allowed 13 explosive plays (15+ yards), good enough for the top half of the league. They can't afford to let Jennings add to that number like he did on his 31-yard touchdown last week.
Brandon Aiyuk – The Patriots made an offer to the disgruntled Aiyuk this summer but were unable to swing a deal for the talented receiver. Last week it seemed like the Rams aim was to take Aiyuk out of the game, but that allowed Jennings to go off. As Aiyuk pulled coverage with him, Jennings pulled in the catches. Will the Patriots approach it similarly? Aiyuk has 11 catches for 119 yards and is still looking for his first touchdown of 2024.
Fred Warner – San Fran's defense isn't setting the world on fire through three games, they rank 21st in DVOA, 30th on third down and 23rd in points. However, overlooking a player like Fred Warner would be foolish. Warner has once again been all over the field, leading the team in tackles while adding in an interception, a sack, three forced fumbles and three passes defensed. It's obvious as soon as you turn on a 49ers game, not letting Warner destroy your offense is a huge key to the game.
"He's one of the best in the league, and when you see him flying around out there – and he's a very good tackler," assessed Mayo of Warner. "Those guys up front do a good job protecting him, allowing him to do those things, but I have nothing but the ultimate respect for a guy like Fred Warner. I actually, when I first got into the league and started getting into scouting a little bit, I went back and watched some of his film in college just to see, like, 'What did everyone miss with this guy?' because he is such a good player. He can play in space as good as a big nickel. He's a very good player, physical, all those things."
Nick Bosa – Complicating matters is problem pass rusher Nick Bosa, who has just two sacks this season and a team-leading 10 QB pressures. For an offense that has gotten inconsistent tackle play, Bosa could be the biggest concern of the weekend. He has game-changing ability. The Patriots must have a blocking plan for Bosa on every down.
"It's talent all around the field," said Jacoby Brissett this week. "A group that has been together – not in this system – but together for a long time. A lot of good players. The system, they play it well. They run fast. They get to the ball. They've got All-Pro, Pro Bowl players at all three levels of the defense. They know it. They play with, I guess, the confidence about themselves that it's not a play on the field that they can't make, which, to their credit, is somewhat true. A lot of team speed, a lot of physical play, so it's going to definitely be a hard-hat game for us for sure."
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