There are two ways to look at the Patriots upset win over the Jets at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
The glass-half-full view is that head coach Jerod Mayo's team showed some fight after a rocky week. With the Patriots losing six straight games, the narratives weren't positive. Some of that was self-inflicted, but it's also the reality of playing in a sports environment like Boston: scrutiny comes with the territory.
After losing their starting quarterback in the first half, the Patriots were resilient, rallying around Jacoby Brissett for a 25-22 win. The moxy his team showed was good for Coach Mayo, who needed a vote of confidence to quiet the chatter about how the locker room took his comments about the team playing "soft" last week in London.
As we spin it forward, the other way to look at Sunday's win is that it's not sustainable. In NFL history, teams had won 750 consecutive games when they scored more than 20 points, didn't turn the ball over, and allowed fewer than 250 yards. Then came the Jets. Like in Week 1, the Pats also won another game throwing for under 140 net yards. Plus, the non-QB run game continued to be in a rut for the third consecutive week.
Pats RBs averaged just 2.2 yards per attempt with -31 yards before contact. Over the last three weeks, here are their yards before contact numbers: -5, -2, -31. In that span, the Pats are 30th in EPA (-0.29), 31st in rushing success rate (24.1%), and last in average yards before contact (-0.6). In all, they have just two (!) rushes over five yards by running backs since Week 6.
New England's rushing success rate was a bit better this week (36% compared to 15.2% in Weeks 6-7). Still, there's a lack of initial push but also very little movement to the second level, with the linebackers clean to run free to the ball, particularly when the Patriots try to block their single-back outside zone schemes. Operating without a ground game is a tough way to live, especially without Drake Maye (concussion protocol).
On a positive note, the offensive staff deserves credit for getting Maye ready to play every week. OC Alex Van Pelt is starting to get a hang of things in the passing game. Van Pelt is giving his quarterbacks answers, scheming open receivers, calling coverage beaters based on opponent tendencies, and utilizing personnel more effectively lately.
Maye was once again trending in a positive direction before the injury (four plus, two minus plays). He's seeing the field well while making big-time plays with his arm and legs. There's still fine-tuning to be done with his footwork, and it's debatable whether or not Maye scrambled prematurely at times. Still, given that he's their most prized asset, it's huge that the rookie is off to a good start even with clear weaknesses around him.
The staff also gets kudos for settling down the pass protection. This week, Brissett and Maye were under pressure on 11 of 36 drop-backs or a manageable 30.6%. Since Week 6, the Pats pressure rate is 35%, 15th in the NFL, compared to dead-last through the first five weeks (46%).
My only nitpick with Van Pelt is his early-down play sequencing. It still doesn't feel like he's doing enough to generate explosives off play-action. For example, the Pats started in a game-planned formation with backup OL Lecitus Smith at fullback. They ran a successful FB trap play for six yards from a pistol formation. On the next play, they went under center to run outside zone from standard 12 personnel (-1). Now, you're in third down. Smith played three snaps, all runs, that gained six, five, and two yards (4.3 avg.). Why not show them the same formation, but this time call play-action? It just felt like a missed opportunity, in my opinion.
Eventually, the hope is that the roster around the quarterback will improve. That's on personnel chief Eliot Wolf. Right now, all Van Pelt and his staff can do is get the best out of what they have. You're seeing this group improve, and Maye is elevating things the way a third-overall pick should. The Patriots offense has a long way to go, but they're making strides. If we are going to rag on this coaching staff when things go poorly, which is fair, we should also give them props when it's warranted.
Here is a review of the defense and quick-hit film notes from the Patriots win over the Jets:
Patriots Defense Review: Did the Run Defense Improve and Man Coverage Rules
Look, writing about run defense is not very exciting. There isn't much to it: As the coaches and players say, it's all about mindset and fundamentals and less about scheme.
On Sunday, the Patriots got back to basics with fronts they've used for years in Foxboro. According to veteran Davon Godchaux, New England went back to some of their base front mechanics to get back on track against the run, but how did they do? It was still a mixed bag.
Jets running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen combined to have 11 successful runs to four run stuffs, with two rushes over 10 yards. New York had a 54% rushing success rate, which ranks in the 94th percentile while adding +0.06 EPA per rush (79th percentile). By the numbers, it still wasn't great for the Pats run defense, especially on runs to the outside.
Hall and Allen had 84 rushing yards on 16 attempts outside the tackles (5.3 avg.). Hall had six successful outside runs, and both of his 10-plus yard runs were to the outside. The Jets hurt the Patriots, in particular, with crack toss schemes and zone-lead plays out of New York's two-back 'pony' sets. But those did dry up as the game wore on, and the Jets struggled rushing between the tackles (12 attempts, 28 yards).
Although the run defense was still inconsistent, the Patriots pass defense succeeded with a formula we've been clamoring for weekly. In 14 man coverage drop-backs, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers went 5-of-13 for 67 yards and a sack. For comparison, Rodgers was 12-of-15 for 166 yards when New England played zone coverage, a difference of 5.2 yards per attempt (man) compared to 11.1 when the Patriots played zone structures.
The Pats had some cool wrinkles in the backend within their man coverages. For example, this looks like a man-match coverage to help leverage Davante Adams (No. 3) and Garrett Wilson (No. 2) to the three-receiver side. First, when Wilson releases across the field, Marcus Jones passes him off to S Marte Mapu. Then, Jones becomes a free defender to help Christian Gonzalez bracket Adams. By the time Rodgers gets to his check-down, Keion White closes the pocket on a T/E stunt.
New England also had a few neat high red zone coverages that forced the Jets into field goal attempts. In this play, the Pats are running a cover-seven variation with brackets on Adams (Wilson-Hawkins) and Garrett Wilson (Joneses) with Gonzo on an island against Mike Williams. The coverage takes out three of Rodgers' primary reads: Wilson (bottom), and then the exchange works to eliminate two options by Hawkins taking Adams on the crosser and Marco Wilson dropping off into a help position on the tight end (Mapu). Again, by the time Rodgers gets to his check-down, the LB Christian Elliss is closing for the sack.
When you compare the marriage between rush in coverage to Week 3, where the pass rush struggled to keep Rodgers in the pocket, allowing him to extend plays, you can see why they were more successful against the Jets quarterback this time around.
The Jets still generated +0.27 expected points added per drop-back, which is still too effective to call it a great defensive performance. However, it was an improvement from the Week 3 matchup in the Meadowlands (+0.41), and the Pats defense stepped up in some key spots.
By limiting the Jets on third down (4-10) and getting two stops in the red zone, the Patriots defense did enough to get a win on Sunday.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Jets After Further Review
Offense
- I graded out Brissett's tape the same way as Maye's. He had seven plus plays to five minus plays. This was one of his better games of the year, behind only Week 1 vs. Cincy. Brissett had three plus-plays on the game-winning drive, including an excellent throw to Boutte while under pressure on the deep post. The veteran deserves major kudos for staying ready and performing in the clutch. Brissett stepped up for his team. Good for him.
- Patriots receivers had four drops in this game: Boutte (2), Bourne (1), and Thornton (1). Two of those drops came on third down, and one came when Boutte should've sat in the zone void rather than continuing across the field, so the ball was slightly behind him. Coach Mayo: "They need to get better." In addition to Mayo's comments, this team needs more from Bourne. I get that he's still finding his footing coming off the ACL injury.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson didn't have much to work with on his 20 carries. Stevenson forced seven missed tackles and racked up 59 yards after contact – impressive. There were two times where he could've been more decisive coming through the line of scrimmage, with a late cutback on an outside zone toss, and he should've just gotten downhill immediately on one draw play. But his five-yard run to move the chains by bouncing a duo scheme outside was a perfect example of him making yards out of nothing (Q1 6:05). They need to block better for him.
- TE Hunter Henry is rock-solid. Henry's best route came on his third-and-5 conversion in the first quarter, but he also ran a great sight-adjust to beat a third-and-11 blitz, got the game-winning drive started with a contested catch on a corner route in a spot concept (12 yards), and saved the day on the game-winning touchdown with a great block. He also had another nice perimeter block on Sauce on outside zone. He's just a really good football player.
- WR DeMario Douglas was quiet in this one with only two catches for 12 yards on three targets. He was open as the backside read on Maye's sack (slant). Brissett also had him a few times on crossers and should've thrown fast to the flat in the red-zone sequence that ended the game when they put Pop in motion. This wasn't a secret 100-yard game or anything if he was targeted more, but Douglas won on a handful of routes, and the ball just didn't find him this week.
- WR Kayshon Boutte made up for his two drops with a great post route vs. the Jets top CB to set up the game-winner. Boutte ate up the cushion with Sauce Gardner bailing in a match quarters technique, forced Sauce to turn his hips, and got into the blind spot to separate at the top of the route. Boutte is good for one great vertical route per game at this point.
- C Ben Brown had his worst game as a starter with a sack and two hurries allowed in pass protection, and a blown block that led to a run TFL. In his defense, the Jets targeted Brown by putting DT Quinnen Williams over the Pats backup center quite a bit. Williams is still a force, so it was a difficult matchup.
- LT Vederian Lowe continues to be this team's best pass-protecting left tackle. He gave up two hurries, and he and LG Michael Jordan failed to pass off a T/E stunt effectively. However, Lowe didn't give up any quick pressures and had one dominant rep where he stunned DE Michael Clemons with a two-hand punch. Lowe also had a nice block on the nine-yard screen to Pop. The Patriots will take this effort from Lowe.
- RT Trey Jacobs also held his own with a hit and hurry allowed in 39 pass-blocking snaps. Jacobs got beat clean by a nasty spin move by Will McDonald (hit), and Haason Reddick got his edge once (hurry). Jacobs could've been better on the game-winning touchdown, though, whiffing on his block at the point of attack. Overall, he was steady.
- LG Michael Jordan surrendered a hit, got called for a hold, and has recently regressed a bit in the run game. Jordan was responsible for two run stuffs and has now been "down" two games in a row as a run blocker. The veteran was the Pats most stable lineman for a while, so we'll give him some leash. But, if this continues, you wonder if Sidy Sow, Layden Robinson, or even Cole Strange, when healthy, will get a crack at left guard in the starting lineup.
- RG Michael Onwenu was clean in pass protection. However, they're paying him $19 million a year to run behind him with the game on the line, and Onwenu whiffed on his block at the point of attack on the game-winner. You'd just like to see him be better there.
- Pass Protection: Brown (sack, two hurries), Jacobs (hit, hurry), Lowe (two hurries), Jordan (hold), Onwenu (clean sheet), Brissett (sack).
Defense
- This was a much better effort from the interior D-Line after getting pushed around by the Jags last week. As mentioned, the Jets RBs only had 28 rushing yards on 12 attempts inside the tackles (2.3 avg.). Jeremiah Pharms set the tone with a nice run stuff on an arm over/swim, Davon Godchaux was back to usual form, and Jacquelin Roy held up on double-teams a bit better this week. The fundamentals from this group were much better.
- CB Christian Gonzalez shadowed Jets WR Davante Adams on 23 total routes with 12 reps in man coverage. Besides the final play of the game where Adams had a meaningless 16-yard catch, Gonzo didn't allow a completion into his coverage vs. the former All-Pro: four targets, one catch, 16 yards, PBU (slant in the red zone), DPI (bad call). The only nitpick for Gonzalez was getting beat on an under/slant, getting picked off in man coverage on a mesh crosser, and getting away with a slight jersey tug on a short crosser in the first half. Overall, he was great.
- CB Marcus Jones, who was elevated to the No. 2 corner spot with Jonathan Jones playing through a shoulder injury (47.4% snap rate), struggled in his matchup vs. Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Wilson caught five passes for 113 yards on eight targets with one PBU for Jones. The Jets wideout won on two fades, a crosser, and a corner route for explosives. The Pats trusted Jones to take Wilson on an island, a tough matchup that the Jets WR won.
- EDGE Keion White started slow with his edge getting run on multiple times early, including on a play where Jets TE Jeremy Ruckert pancaked White. However, the second-year defender settled down with a team-high four pressures and two run stuffs. White set a much sturdier edge as the game wore on, had a nice coverage stop where he dropped off the edge into the flat to smother a Y delay route, and logged his QB hit by closing the pocket nicely on a T/E with Jennings. White settled in nicely to have a solid outing after a rough start.
- EDGE Anfernee Jennings stands out as this defense's best run defender. Jennings logged a team-high three stops, caving lead blockers on counter schemes and setting the edge. The Jets got the Pats by crack-blocking or running away from Jennings, but he's a consistent problem out there for opposing run games.
- Boom-or-bust days for both linebackers, Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss. Elliss had the DPI, which was a tough play covering an RB downfield on a wheel route, and allowed a 27-yard catch on a stick-nod route in a cover three structure. But also had a sack, another QB hit, two run stuffs, and a nice pass-breakup covering a back on a check-down. Tavai was at the point of attack on two successful outside runs, but he had a nice run stuff and allowed just two catches for 15 yards into his coverage. This duo has some limitations, but this was better.
- Credit to the Patriots safeties for stepping up with Kyle Dugger (ankle) being a late scratch. Marte Mapu continues to be very up and down, though. He allowed three catches for 38 yards into his coverage and bit hard on play-action again, abandoning his man coverage assignment on what should've been a long touchdown for the Jets (Rodgers didn't see the bust). Mapu's issues against play-action are becoming a weekly occurrence.
- QB Pressures: White (hit, three hurries), Elliss (sack, hit), Jennings (hit, hurry), Godchaux (hit), Pharms (hurry), Roy (hurry), Tavai (hurry), Wise (hurry). Run stuffs: Jennings (3), Elliss (2), White (2), Pharms/Gonzo/Roy/Pettus/Tavai/Godchaux/Wise/McMillan (1).
- Coverage: M. Jones (9/6/114 yards/TD/PBU), Mapu (4/3/38 yards), Elliss (2/1/27 yards/PBU/DPI), Gonzalez (5/2/25 yards/PBU/DPI), Hawkins (2/2/15 yards), Tavai (2/2/15 yards), White (1/1/-1 yards).
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