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Replay: Patriots Unfiltered Wed Nov 20 - 02:00 PM | Thu Nov 21 - 11:55 AM

After Further Review: Breaking Down Patriots QB Drake Maye's Performance vs. the Titans in Week 9

Although it came in a loss, the Patriots rookie quarterback continues to impress with another strong performance vs. the Titans. 

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

When the Patriots drafted Drake Maye in April, there were several pro comparisons thrown around for the uber-talented quarterback out of North Carolina.

Some saw Chargers QB Justin Herbert, while others compared him to Packers stud Jordan Love. Then, there were the Josh Allen comparisons due to his dual-threat ability and live arm. Although every player is unique, player comparisons are a fun part of draft coverage. Who does he play like? What is his ceiling and floor? With Maye, opinions were all over the map.

Following Sunday's loss, where the third-overall pick accounted for 301 of their 316 yards of offense (95.3%), there was a feeling of both disappointment and hope because Maye carried his team into overtime. After the game, Maye's competitiveness and raw talent that willed the Pats into overtime on the road won his teammates over. One veteran even confirmed this scribe's priors about the right pro comparison for Maye.

"I tell the guys all the time that he plays like Josh Allen 2.0. I played Josh Allen in Miami in his rookie year, and he didn't look that good, and Josh Allen is a phenomenal player now—MVP-type player. Drake looks better than Josh did his rookie year," nose tackle Davon Godchaux said.

"Everybody wants to play with Josh Allen. Everybody wants to play with Pat Mahomes. Soon, everyone will want to play with Drake Maye," Godchaux continued.

Admittedly, four starts with three complete games isn't a large enough sample size to declare Maye a star like Allen. However, it certainly appears that the Patriots have the makings of a franchise guy. After reviewing the film, Maye had a season-high 16 'plus' plays vs. a Titans defense that came into the week ranked 12th in pass DVOA, with an Allen-like mix of in-structure and out-of-structure playmaking that elevated the offense.

Despite only appearing in five games, Maye has added the third-most expected points on quarterback scrambles, +21.5, and is by far the league leader since taking over as the starter in Week 6. The Pats rookie is also the highest-rated quarterback in PFF rushing grade (91.0), so he's already making the case that he's among the NFL's elite running QBs.

As a passer, Maye is tied for 14th among 34 qualified quarterbacks with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in big-time throw percentage with six on 125 pass attempts (4.4%). The Pats QB1 is also above-average in completion percentage over expectation in the last four weeks (+2.2). With a limited supporting cast around him, Maye is off to a fantastic start.

That said, turnovers are the flip side of the Josh Allen comparison. Although he graded out as a net-positive, Maye also registered seven minus plays, including four turnover-worthy plays, three of which ended up in the Titans possession. Although he's making plays, Maye also has the highest turnover-worthy play rate among qualified quarterbacks (5.3%). As a rookie, Allen's TO-worthy play rate was a similar 5.1%, while the Bills superstar threw 12 interceptions to ten touchdowns in 11 starts.

As Godchaux said, Maye is trending toward outplaying rookie-year Josh Allen. Still, the Pats rookie has subtracted -27.1 total EPA on six turnovers. If you remove plays with turnovers, Maye's expected points added per drop-back climbs to +0.21 from +0.03, which doesn't sound like much but is a notable difference on a per-play basis.

Now, it's fair to say there's too much on the rookie's plate. Maye has dropped back to pass 45.3 times per game in his three full starts (136 total). He's his team's entire run game (more on that later), the pass protection, particularly in the first half in Week 9, was rough (44.% pressure rate), the receivers are inconsistent, and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is also learning on the job as a play-caller.

Mainly, the Titans played 86.5% of Maye's 53 drop-backs in zone coverage, with Maye throwing 11.1% of his passes into tight zone windows, which is higher than you'd want ideally. Typically, defeating zone coverage comes down to scheme and spacing, while beating man coverage is about receivers winning on their routes. On film, there wasn't a ton of separation for the Pats receivers this week, primarily vs. zone, which contributed to Maye scrambling eight times.

All that is true while also being objective in our assessment that Maye, who would likely be the first to admit it, must take better care of the football. Although he always lives a little on the edge, like Maye will, Allen became an MVP-caliber QB when he took that 5.1% TO-worthy play rate as a rookie down to his career average of 3.7% (yes, Stefon Diggs and Brian Daboll helped. Upgrading Maye's supporting cast is a must.)

The Patriots drafted a playmaking quarterback, not a game-manager who just runs their offense, and we all need to remember that while evaluating Maye. Plus, let's not lose sight of the fact that he's only 22. We want the third-overall pick to elevate the offense, and with that will come some highs and lows. For now, Maye's peak performance makes you feel super optimistic.

Here is a breakdown of the Patriots run-game issues and quick-hit film notes from the loss to the Titans After Further Review:

What is Going Wrong with the Patriots Run Game?

In the first few weeks, it appeared that the Patriots would be able to rely on a stable rushing attack as the foundation of their offense this season.

New England opened the season with two huge rushing games, with 170 and 185 rushing yards, while splitting their first two contests with the Bengals and Seahawks (OT loss). The Pats were eighth in EPA per rush, tied for fourth in total rushing yards (355), and generated four rushes over 10-plus yards (T-fourth most). Since then, it's been a steady drop-off to the point where the Patriots are now one of the NFL's worst traditional rush offenses. This with an offensive staff that comes from a coaching tree that has always had success running the ball.

After a solid first two weeks, defenses began selling out to stop the run without fear of the Pats passing attack. However, even since the passing game has woken up some with Maye, the run game is crashing hard. To make it even more perplexing, Maye is an elite runner himself, and the Patriots have a good lead-back in Rhamondre Stevenson to tout the rock.

Despite that, the Patriots are 29th in EPA per rush (-0.26) and dead-last in rushing success rate (26%) since Maye took over in Week 6. They have just one rush by running backs over ten yards and are producing a league-worst -46 rushing yards before contact in that span. In fact, the Pats are the only team generating negative yards before contact in the last four weeks.

As always, there are multiple factors at play. The offensive line has started eight different combinations in nine weeks, with a lack of chemistry contributing to poor rhythm in the run game. The Pats are also starting backups at center and right tackle while the plan going into the season wasn't to have a left side of LT Vederian Lowe and LG Michael Jordan – it's been a time along the offensive line.

There also seem to be some schematic questions about how the Patriots want to run the ball and what fits best with their personnel, which includes Stevenson, a patient power runner. Based on Van Pelt's comments since being hired in January, New England wants to run an outside zone system. In outside zone, blockers step horizontally at a 90-degree angle toward the sideline to either bounce runs off the edges or cut back through the middle of the field. On film, the Patriots are struggling to execute these schemes consistently.

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For example, the Patriots call outside zone weak here, meaning they're running away from the tight ends. However, when you run to the weak side of the formation, you need to win single blocks without any "fixers" or lead blockers. The key blocks are on the shaded nose tackle (1-Tech) between the C/RG and the defender in the backside B-Gap between the LT/LG (3-Tech) circled above. C Ben Brown either needs to turn out the shade or dig him out to set up the cutback lane, where LT Vederian Lowe factors into reaching the backside block.

As we roll the play, Brown can't fully overtake Titans NT T'Vondre Sweat, who is a monster. Brown does enough to set up a cutback possibly, but Lowe and LG Michael Jordan can't effectively combo the backside 3-tech to create a cutback lane, so all Stevenson can do is get what he can by "banging" this run into the line of scrimmage for a three-yard gain.

The Patriots struggles are mostly on the blocking, but there are some reps where Stevenson could be more decisive. On outside zone, backs are coached to make their cut on their third step. It's not really Stevenson's game to one-cut-and-go or bounce runs around the edge. Despite that, the Pats called seven zone runs to three gap plays for Stevenson vs. the Titans.

When the Patriots called gap plays, there were some interesting designs. The Pats ran a lead play with OL Sidy Sow as a lead-blocker in this clip. However, Sow goes right while the ball carrier goes left. Typically, when teams run away from lead blockers, they use the extra blocker to free up another blocker at the point of attack. The Pats have the C/RG double-team, RT Mike Onwenu base blocks, Hooper kicks out, and the run goes left? Maye and Stevenson are on the same page, but something seems off with this play. There's a hole between Hooper and Onwenu on the right side, but Stevenson gets stuffed running away from Sow.

There's another rabbit hole to go down about how the Patriots are marrying their runs to their play-action passes. Mostly, their play-action plays are designed to be paired with zone runs, but they've had a tough time getting the coverages they want to run those designs effectively.

Ultimately, the coaching staff must determine what runs they block well and then pair those runs with the right play-action concepts. From this perspective, their personnel is better suited to run gap/power concepts, where they could use lead blockers to help the O-Line move defenders to get Stevenson downhill rather than moving horizontally. To this point, the Patriots have been somewhat reluctant to embrace the power run game.

Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Titans After Further Review

- The Patriots decision to start rookie RG Layden Robinson proved to be a costly one. Robinson was on the field for New England's first four drives when Maye was under pressure on 44.4% of his drop-backs. When they went back to last week's line, Maye only saw a 29% pressure rate. It certainly wasn't perfect, as Maye was sacked three times without Robinson, but the rookie's two hurries and hold on a third-down sack contributed to shaky pass protection early in this one.

- RT Trey Jacobs (one hurry) and G/T Mike Onwenu (two hurries) should start on the right side for the rest of the year, assuming they're available. Jacobs gave up one short corner, while Onwenu got beat inside at right tackle and gave up one hurry at RG. These two settled things down in pass protection. There's no reason to go away from this pairing again.

- LT Vederian Lowe was at least partially responsible for the strip sack, which occurred in 3.86 seconds when he failed to get Arden Key past the quarterback at the apex of the rush. Maye could've gotten to his check-down sooner. Still, Lowe got beat. There were a few T/E exchanges that didn't go well with Jordan, but on the whole, Lowe did his job vs. Key.

- You wonder if left guard will be up for grabs soon between Sidy Sow, Robinson, and Cole Strange when healthy. Current starter Michael Jordan allowed a team-high five pressures with a hit and four hurries. I also had Jordan responsible for two run stuffs, including the 2nd-and-1 gun run before the half. We're a few weeks into Jordan being up and down now, and they have younger options on the bench with some upside.

- C Ben Brown is a nice story of a player who was signed off of Vegas's practice squad and forced into action. That's a tough ask by the Patriots, who lost top C David Andrews for the season, backup Jake Andrews in camp for the season, and felt they couldn't rely on vet Nick Leverett. Still, Brown allowed a sack, hit, and two hurries while being called for two holds. One of his holds wiped out a 22-yard play. The team is asking a lot of Brown, but he's out there, and that's what he's putting on film.

- WR Kendrick Bourne had three solid catches, including back-to-back receptions in the two-minute drills, where his routes looked as crisp as they have since his return. However, he slipped twice on the Nissan Stadium field, once on the first drop-back of the game and then again on the game-ending INT. There's no way of knowing if Titans S Amani Hooker would've recovered to the post anyway had Bourne finished his route, but it was a factor on the play as Hooker was free to fall off Bourne's route to the post in a single-high structure.

- WR DeMario Douglas got some extra attention in this game with the Titans using zone coverage to bracket the middle of the field. He was still targeted nine times, but for only 35 yards, with 21 yards on one play. With teams likely straying away from man-to-man to contain Maye in the pocket, the Pats need to scheme ways for Douglas to get open downfield.

- TE Hunter Henry catches everything thrown his way: 8 targets, 7 catches, and a team-high 56 yards. He is a super reliable player, which showed when Maye went to him on fourth-and-2 with the game on the line late in the fourth quarter – a do-or-die situation.

- WR Ja'Lynn Polk continues to have the rookie blues. Polk played nine snaps and ran four routes. He was called for two penalties, including a hold on a perimeter screen to Douglas that wiped out a 12-yard completion. The hold was borderline, but Polk got his hands outside his frame, which often draws a flag. The illegal formation penalty is just a mental error. I get showing a vote of confidence but watching from the ninth floor to burrow a hockey reference might do him some good.

- Rookie WR Javon Baker ran two good routes on just four snaps. He was open on a deep post where he nodded outside and broke away from the defender, but pressure forced Maye to check it down. Baker also separated on a backside dig, but again, pressure caused Maye to leave the pocket. Assuming he's locked in during the week, I'm ready to see more Baker.

- RB Antonio Gibson's usage continues to be a head-scratcher, with just eight snaps in this one. He's an explosive player in the open field. I'm not sure why he's not given more touches.

- Pass protection: Jordan (hit, four hurries), Brown (sack, hit, two hurries, two holds), Lowe (sack, hurry), Robinson (two hurries, hold), Onwenu (two hurries), Jacobs (hurry).

Defense

- Titans QB Mason Rudolph added +0.18 EPA per drop-back (66th percentile), and although the efficiency metrics were solid (-0.20 EPA/rush), the run defense is the worst area of this team. You could also make a case for the traditional rush offense, but at least Maye gives them some ground production. The run fits and ability to defeat blocks are a tough watch every week. The Pats were two unforced errors away, a tip-drill INT and a botched snap, from allowing 14 more points. This defense is now 30th in total DVOA, 29th in EPA allowed, and 21st in scoring defense (24.1 PPG). Don't let the 20 points allowed this week fool you.

- The Patriots alignment on Pollard's 32-yard run seemed off with DT Jeremiah Pharms lining straight-up over the LT as a four-technique without an edge rusher outside of him. The Titans motioned the TE into the formation at the snap to crack block Pharms on the toss scheme and got the edge easily. LBs Raekwon McMillan and Jahlani Tavai could've been better on the play, too, but it didn't seem right. I even counted to make sure they had 11 defenders on the field because it was odd to see that alignment without an on-ball linebacker outside of Pharms. They ran the same front later on and allowed an 11-yard off-tackle rush.

- Three third-down losses for the defense stood out as back-breakers: 3rd-and-12 scramble by Rudolph on TEN opening TD drive (13 yards), 3rd-and-10 completion to Westbrook-Ikhine for 13 yards on TEN third-quarter FG drive, and third-and-5 in OT to Ridley for 14 yards – three opportunities to get off the field on drives that ended in points for the Titans.

- CB Christian Gonzalez was up and down in this one. Gonzo's ability to cover verticals is excellent. His PBU on a slot fade with Ridley in the No. 3 spot was superb. However, his coverage got a little loose on in-breakers, allowing three catches for 51 yards to Ridley on routes breaking into the MOF: 25-yard post, 12-yard glance, and 14-yard dig in OT. He was not playing outside leverage on the completion in overtime. Instead, he took an inside position and couldn't speed turn quickly enough to stick with Ridley.

- EDGE Keion White admitted to Patriots.com last week that he's still working through some streaky play as a younger player, especially early in games. Well, that was on display again this week. Here were my notes in order: missed tackle on 12-yard reception (stiff-armed by the TE), blown edge on a 13-yard run, flagged for horse-collar tackle, bull rushed the RG for a QB hit, blown gap on a draw play, stuff on end around, hurry, hurry in OT.

- I wanted to be "up" on LB Jahlani Tavai this week after he had an interception, two hurries, a TFL, and three run stuffs. He has taken a lot of heat this season. But he gave up as many plays as he made: partially responsible on 32-yard, 13-yard, and an 8-yard run plus a 24-yard catch allowed off play-action. Overall, it was nice to see some splash plays.

- The Pats most consistent defender was DL Deatrich Wise. Wise had a sack, hit, and a hurry to go along with a blown-up screen in 28 snaps. At this stage, Wise is a rotational player. But he's very reliable in his role. DT Daniel Ekuale was also solid (QB hit, two stuffs).

- The Patriots knew the Titans would run behind first-round LT JC Latham, who is a beast at 6-5, 340 pounds. The Pats played fronts with DT Davon Godchaux over Latham, and those two went back-and-forth, but a tip of the cap to the rookie. He is the real deal in the run game.

- The Patriots safety trio sans Kyle Dugger gave up some plays. Hawkins allowed the 16-yard drive starter in OT by straying from his assignment as the buzz defender in cover three, Pettus struggled in the run game and might've blown an assignment on a coverage bust, and Mapu appeared responsible for the third-and-10 conversion to Westbrook-Ihkine.

- Pressures: Jennings (four hurries), Wise (sack, hit, hurry), White (three hurries), Tavai (two hurries), Pharms (hit), Ekuale (hit). Run stops: Jennings (5), Tavai (3), Roy (2), Ekuale (2), Godchaux (2), six with one (Pettus, White, Mapu, M. Jones, McMillan, J. Jones).

- Coverage: Gonzalez (6/3/51 yards/PBU), J. Jones (4/3/37 yards/TD), Wilson (3/3/30 yards/TD), Tavai (3/2/29 yards/INT), White (2/2/21 yards), Elliss (2/2/20 yards), Hawkins (1/1/16 yards), Pettus (2/2/14 yards), Mapu (1/1/13 yards), Jennings (1/1/9 yards), M. Jones (1/0/0).

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer

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