For coaches and players, the last few games of the Patriots season are a chance to make their case that they should be in the team's long-term plans.
Although wins must come eventually, the first step for head coach Jerod Mayo's program is returning to a culture where winning Monday-Saturday sets up real victories on Sundays. From a coaching perspective, that means presenting the players with successful game plans each week by studying opponents to find vulnerabilities, understanding how that fits into what you do well and don't do well, and ultimately figuring out how to meld those things together every week.
Then, it's about taking things from the classroom to the practice field, where coaches need to demand good practice habits from the players: prepare well, practice well, get your mind right for the game, and prosper. For years, the Patriots beat opponents before kickoff because of how they prepared. Until that culture is re-established, everything else is moot. We can nitpick in-game coaching and execution, which are important, but Coach Mayo's first season is about grading the process.
After struggling in Arizona, the Patriots had a better plan and were ready to play in Buffalo. We're not big on moral victories here. Still, the Patriots had a sound strategy on both sides of the ball, with a more aggressive offensive approach while playing to their strengths defensively, to start fast vs. the Bills. With admittedly lower expectations at 3-12, this was what we were hoping to see down the stretch: good effort from the players, be well-prepared with smart game plans, and give playoff-caliber opponents some trouble. It's far from a finished product, but it's a start.
This week, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt invited rookie QB Drake Maye to be a more aggressive downfield thrower. After averaging -0.8 air yards per pass attempt in the first half vs. the Cardinals, Maye opened this Sunday's game by averaging 7.7 air yards per attempt in the first two quarters. Maye, who didn't attempt a pass over 10 air yards until the second half in Arizona, threw four deep shots in Week 16, completing two for 54 yards, with a 28-yard dime to WR Kayshon Boutte that gave the Patriots an early lead.
Van Pelt, who told Patriots.com last week that he was holding back designed runs for Maye partially due to the team's now 3-12 record, called two zone-read plays on Sunday. Although one was unsuccessful, the other went for 13 yards to convert a 4th-and-1 late in the game. So why call two designed runs and a pair of QB sneaks after opting not to until now? Yours truly posed the question to head coach Jerod Mayo post-game on Sunday.
"We thought that was best for the football team. He can make plays with his legs, and he did that today," Coach Mayo said. "We're always looking for ways to win."
Although it wasn't a very expansive answer, my prevailing thought from game observations remains the same: the Patriots seemed to go into this game with the mindset that this is their final exam for the season, a mock trial, if you will, of what they'd do if the stakes were higher. Maye said something along those lines in his post-game remarks.
"I think it's kind of a sneak peek, hopefully, into some meaningful games here, and hopefully, it's at our place in the future years. But some meaningful games at the end with Buffalo in December," Maye said.
In the end, it wasn't good enough offensively to pull off the upset, with over 40 scoreless minutes and three straight drives ending in turnovers in the second half. Still, Maye graded out well with 11 plus plays to seven minus throws/decisions (see audio breakdown above). Buffalo tried spinning the dial on Maye, changing the pre and post-snap picture on him throughout the game. Still, the Pats QB continues to flash traits worth building around, ranking 15th among the 32 starters in Week 16 in EPA per play (+0.14). Thinking about what Maye could do with a better supporting cast should excite Patriots fans.
Until those roster upgrades occur, process and sustainability are the two words to live by. The Patriots had the right process this week, and now they need to do it again vs. the Chargers on Saturday. Then, we can start being truly encouraged by the direction of this football team.
Here's a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes from Sunday's loss to the Bills.
Patriots Defense Review: Did the Pats Defense Finally Have Some Answers vs. Bills QB Josh Allen?
Although it came in defeat, Sunday's performance was the best pass defense the Patriots have played against Bills star QB Josh Allen in years. Allen's 154 passing yards on Sunday were his lowest output against New England's defense since the infamous 2021 wind game in Buffalo.
Until proven otherwise, Allen, the favorite to be the NFL's most valuable player, is the king of the AFC East. For this regime to get where it wants to go, they'll eventually need to dethrone the current champs in Orchard Park.
To that end, a huge aspect of this week's review was dissecting Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington's first game vs. Allen in their current roles. Was the plan that held Allen to +0.02 expected points added without an explosive pass play a building block? Does the Pats defensive brain trust have the chops to beat Allen? In other words, I wanted them to show something that could solve a five-year problem for this defense.
Heading into Week 16, Allen ranked second in expected points added vs. man coverage but was only completing 54.7% of his passes against man this season (22nd out of 34 QBs). EPA mainly measures how explosive an offense is in certain situations, but completion rate and drop-back success rate more accurately gauge consistency. In terms of play success, Allen was a more human 11th in drop-back success vs. man coverage entering Week 16 (45.8%).
From this perspective, Buffalo's retooling of its wide receiver room factored into the Patriots believing they could man up this time around. In the past, Allen had star receiver Stefon Diggs torture New England in man coverage. Diggs, a Pats killer, was always Buffalo's trump card when the Patriots would have man-coverage heavy plans vs. Allen. With all due respect to Buffalo's current group, the Bills don't have a separator on Diggs's level right now.
As a result, the Patriots trusted their defensive backs to play man coverage. The Pats played a season-high 64.7%, or 21-of-34, drop-backs in man coverage in Buffalo. On those 21 man coveragae plays, Allen was 7-of-18 for 57 yards with a low red-zone touchdown and an interception while subtracting -0.26 expected points per play. New England's corners to cover in man-to-man, and the Patriots DBs won their matchups.
The first part of the game plan was paying extra attention to Bills leading receiver Khalil Shakir, who primarily ran routes from the slot. With veteran CB Jonathan Jones as the primary defender on Shakir, the Pats used "one-cross" and "one-robber" schemes that allowed Jones to play off safety help to limit Shakir, the engine of Buffalo's passing game.
The other game-plan key was for the Pats defensive line to use a "mush" rush and quarterback spies to contain Allen in the pocket. From a discpline standpoint, this was as good as the Pats pass rush has played all year. It might not be everyone's favorite style because it produces a low pressure rate (29.4%). But it's better than allowing Allen to beat man coverages by extending plays to buy time for his receivers to uncover.
Lastly, the Pats did a nice job disguising their coverage shells with their safeties, and Allen sometimes looked unsure about what he was seeing. Frankly, this is what a "bad" Josh Allen game looks like now. He's so good that it's not a complete disaster, but the Bills QB1 missed some reads and sometimes fell back on playing hero ball. We haven't seen him struggle to play from the pocket like this against New England in a while.
For example, the Patriots played this early second down in a one-cross call. This is a man-to-man scheme where the "robber" safety (Dugger) overtakes the first receiver to run across the field while the primary defender on that receiver (JJones) becomes the new robber. Above, Buffalo runs one of their base concepts where the run-action tries to open a passing lane to Shakir over the middle. However, Dugger and Jones exchange the route perfectly, and Allen throws it away under pressure.
The other base call the Patriots used was playing traditional cover one-robber while rotating from a two-high safety shell before the snap to a single-high coverage structure. Allen wants to throw the fade to WR Amari Cooper at the bottom of the screen vs. press-man. However, CB Christian Gonzalez smothers Cooper's release. When the Bills QB moves off Cooper, the robber is sitting right in the passing window to the deep hitch by Mack Hollins at the top of the screen. This is a well-covered down by the Pats defense, forcing Allen into a short scramble.
Another man coverage the Pats used was using their linebackers to bracket the Bills running backs while playing cover-one. Here, the back releases into the flat, so LB Jahlani Tavai takes him while LB Christian Elliss becomes a free defender (low rat). Elliss is then able to derail the tight end's route over the middle, forcing Allen to his second read, where Jones is playing a perfect trail technique on Shakir's deep over route.
Once they established tight man coverage, Allen started hunting big plays rather than taking profits underneath the defense. In this clip, Shakir tries to run a stutter-and-go at the bottom of the screen that Jones covers. Allen is quick to move off that side of the field here, as Hollins is open for a completion on the deep curl. Instead, Allen's eyes go to the middle of the field, where the robber (Dugger) has closed off the backside dig, so the Bills QB goes into playground mode. In this instance, the "Longhorn" package is waiting. Brenden Schooler is spying Allen to force a throw, and Allen tries a deep shot to the back that falls incomplete.
This play was probably Allen's most egregious miss, speaking to the fact that the Patriots defense had him seeing the field poorly. Allen has rookie Keon Coleman on the crosser when Gonzo and Elliss bump into each other, but Allen flat-out misses the open receiver. Rather than hitting Coleman, Allen looks to extend the play, but Schooler is once again in his face to force a low-percentage throw that is incomplete.
Over the years, Allen has gotten much better at taking profits. However, he struggled in that regard on Sunday. Although we want to avoid being overly complimentary, it'll be interesting to see if Buffalo's playoff opponents challenge the Bills receivers in man coverage. We won't go as far as to say the Patriots laid out a blueprint on how to slow down Buffalo's high-powered offense, but New England snapped a streak of eight straight games where the Bills scored over 30 points and held them to their second-lowest offensive output of the season (17 points).
For the Patriots, it was good to see their pass defense play on a string again. The pass rush contained Allen, the man coverage was competitive, and the help defenders were in the right spots. The Patriots played good team pass defense, where New England's talent in the secondary actually had the upper hand over a playoff-caliber opponent.
As we look ahead to the 2025 offseason, the Patriots defense has a clear strength to build on with their ability to play man coverage. To date, New England is the seventh-ranked man coverage defense in yards per pass attempt (6.1) and is 12th in EPA per play in man coverage (-0.09) while playing the second-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (45 percent). They can stick with teams in man coverage, even with a pass rush that ranks 25th in pressure rate when they're in man coverage (35.1%).
Along with fixing the run defense, bolstering the pass rush would make the Pats man coverages even more effective in the future, which should be personnel chief Eliot Wolf's focus this offseason.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Bills After Further Review
Offense
- Without knowing the exact protection adjustments, it's tough to place blame on the final red-zone sequence that was, to put it politely, sloppy. Buffalo ran three zero blitz coverages in the low red zone that the Patriots struggled to block. After the game, Maye put it on himself, saying, "I've got to be better, and I've got to be better with getting to stuff and be ready for blitz zero." Maye is a good one for not throwing his coaches under the bus because the red zone execution is as much on Van Pelt as it is on anyone. They've got to give Maye better answers and their route spacing continues to plague them in tight quarters. They haven't been efficient enough in the red zone all year, and the turnovers can't happen.
- The Patriots had a few well-blocked runs and good screen designs in this game. The 14-yard outside zone run (1st QTR, 9:13) was a perfectly blocked play by multiple players (Onwenu and Brown the main ones), and the crack toss/shovel worked twice for positive plays. There are a few nice screen designs by AVP on the 11-yarder to Hooper and a 13-yarder to Stevenson. Two good examples of the play-caller doing what he can in the screen game to mask a shaky O-Line. Unfortunately, the backed-up screen to Stevenson fell on the opposite side of the spectrum, with RT Trey Jacobs missing the cut block to cause the turnover.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson was in the mix on two turnovers. His seventh fumble of the year was particularly unfortunate as he ran the ball effectively otherwise. Stevenson had five successful runs and two runs over 10 yards. He showed better decisiveness on zone schemes, his 14-yard TD run was excellent, and he also showed good poise to avoid a TFL and pick up positive yardage on an inside trap scheme (four yards). The ball security issues are troublesome. They need to coach that out of him.
- RB Antonio Gibson continues to provide a spark with three successful runs and two great reps in blitz pickup. Gibson got a piece of late second-level blitzers to save two plays, including the 22-yarder Maye highlight to Boutte. Gibson continues to flash the speed to get the edge on toss and outside zone runs, while his awareness in pass protection was big on Sunday, as was his 42-yard opening kickoff return that got the Pats started.
- After having some public critiques of the plan in Arizona, WR Kayshon Boutte had his best all-around game of the year vs. the Bills. Boutte made a great catch through contact on his 28-yard TD, made a sliding grab on the 22-yarder from Maye, and ran two good hitches in HOSS Juke to be a quick answer vs. off-coverage. When he's focused, Boutte is an NFL receiver who can be a WR3/4 in an NFL receiver room.
- The Pats tight ends continue to be the most consistent players on offense. Hunter Henry converted three third-downs, including his touchdown, while Austin Hooper had the screen chunk (11 yards), went into a dangerous area on the 28-yard seam splitter, and caught a stick route to get the Pats some breathing room off their own goal-line. The Pats tight end tandem also blocked mostly well, particularly Hooper, who had a great combo on an eight-yard duo run. Henry's only issues came on the move on split-flow zone schemes.
- WR Kendrick Bourne is a stand-up guy whose energy is great for this team. However, his route details continue to cost them in big spots. Bourne needs to clear out the sideline for Hooper's route while occupying the deep safety on the scissors concept. By getting held up on his route and cutting it off early, he caused the traffic that led to Hooper failing to finish his route. Bourne was very accountable about this after the game.
- RT Trey Jacobs does his best, but the Patriots must upgrade that position in the offseason. They should also strongly consider playing rookie Ceadan Wallace in the last two games, assuming Wallace is 100 percent. Jacobs allowed a team-high five pressures, got called for two false starts, and missed the cut block on the backward pass/fumble-six. Four reps vs. Von Miller were not competitive, with Miller cruising around Jacobs's edge three times and beating him clean with a spin move for a QB hit. The Pats put Jacobs in a tough spot this season, but the film is the film.
- Nice bounce-back game for LT Vederian Lowe. When he's mentally locked in and playing with patient technique, Lowe has the tools to be effective, with light feet and good length. On Sunday, he allowed only one hurry, seeing a combination of Greg Rousseau (16 reps) and A.J. Epenesa (14). Lowe looks like an NFL left tackle when he's on, but you never know what you'll get each week.
- RG Mike Onwenu is mostly settling in at right guard. Onwenu's sack was a scheme pressure where he didn't pick up the blitzing linebacker from the second level, but Maye might've still beaten the blitz if he hadn't fumbled the snap. On a positive note, he had several good pulls and an excellent reach block on a 14-yard outside zone run. On Boutte's TD, Onwenu showed active eyes to help on the interior blitz and again on another rep that saved Ben Brown. There did appear to be another instance where Onwenu was in the wrong play call (2nd QTR, 4:57), which led to a negative play. Overall, this is closer to the level of play you'd expect from Onwenu.
- Rookie LG Layden Robinson is improving. He allowed a quick pressure to Ed Oliver on a one-on-one rep, which will happen to a first-year lineman. Besides that, he was clean in pass protection on 20 one-on-ones. Robinson also had a solid zone combo on a five-yard run. The only mental lapse was on a blitz exchange with Brown. Robinson's eyes went outside when Brown had to peel off his block to pick up the blitzer, leaving the DT unblocked. It's hard to say who was in the wrong there, but it looked like Brown did the right thing.
- C Ben Brown needs to clean up his snapping issues. There were a number of low, off-target shotgun snaps. As a blocker, Brown was solid. He allowed only one hurry and was arguably their best run blocker, with standout second-level blocks on gains of seven and 14 yards. Not sure what's going on with the snaps, though. It wasn't the towel this week.
- QB Pressures: Jacobs (two QB hits, three hurries), Maye (sack, hurry), Lowe (hurry), Brown (hurry), Onwenu (hurry), Robinson (hurry), Gibson (hurry), Stevenson (hurry).
Defense
- Deciding what's more to blame for the Patriots run defense issues, the D-Line or linebackers, when the answer is probably both is a season-long internal debate. It's a mix of everything: they don't play blocks physically enough, while the second level gets moved out of gaps, plays the wrong gaps, or is late to diagnose the play. They also don't rally to the football with urgency as a defense. The Pats missed eight tackles vs. the run, with four of those being on tackle attempts that could've been TFLs. I cannot tell you how often this defense has a play in the backfield, but the runner sneaks out for 4-5 yards. It's uncanny. Will getting their spine (Barmore, Bentley, Peppers) back in full force next season fix it? It'll help. But there's a case to be made that the run defense is the worst area of this team.
- The Pats defenders who missed tackles on potential run TFLs: Davon Gochaux (four-yard gain), Anfernee Jennings (five-yard gain), Alex Austin (four-yard gain), and Daniel Ekuale (no gain). They need the other 10 guys to rally to the ball more urgently.
- CB Jonathan Jones gets a game ball for his excellent coverage on Bills top WR Khalil Shakir. On 12 routes in man coverage vs. Shakir, Jones held Buffalo's leading receiver to one catch for 12 yards, and he even forced a fumble with a perfect "Peanut" punch after the completion. Jones took the Bills offense's engine out of the game, with only a few reps where you could say Shakir won away from the ball. An outstanding job by Jones, who should be showing the Pats this tape as he approaches free agency.
- S Marte Mapu had an eventful game. Mapu had an interception, a great pass breakup driving a crosser, recorded two hurries, and forced a fumble. However, he was also in the mix on the following plays: a 46-yard TD by Cook, a 13-yard completion to Knox, and he was blocked off the edge on a 12-yard run that effectively ended the game for Buffalo. Plus, his decision to leave the end zone on the INT was not good. Mapu flashed on some great plays, which should get him playing time in the final two weeks, but the INT decision and over-running the ball on Cook's TD were killers. On the Cook TD, Mapu should play a gap behind the ball to maintain his angle on the cutback as the last line of defense.
- CB Christian Gonzalez was only targeted twice in man coverage in this game, both incompletions. Gonzo mostly covered Bills rookie Keon Coleman (11 routes), with some reps on Amari Cooper (six) and Mack Hollins (six). The Pats didn't seem overly concerned with the matchups on the perimeter, opting for Austin and Gonzalez to play sides. Gonzalez had a great press-man rep on Cooper to take away Allen's first read, but he did get beat a few times away from the ball (Coleman fade, Hollins crosser, picked on another crosser). In the end, Allen didn't test Gonzalez, potentially leaving some plays on the field for Buffalo.
- CB Alex Austin battled in single coverage, allowing two catches for 25 yards with a pass breakup. The two catches Austin allowed were both deep hitches while he was in off-man or cover-three, where the goal is for him to keep the play in front of him. Those were the completions the Pats were willing to live with on Sunday.
- DT Jeremiah Pharms was a one-man pass rush with a team-high five pressures. He mostly rushed on Bills LG David Edwards, with 15 reps vs. Edwards, producing all five disruptions against Buffalo's left guard. His QB hit came on a nice punch-rip move. Pharms can rush from the interior, but his run defense tape is inconsistent, like most of the current D-Line.
- S Kyle Dugger was much better with his eye discipline and zone/help defense awareness on Sunday. He also had a TFL on an RPO screen and recorded a run stop. There were some short completions in zone coverage that fell on Dugger, but this was better from him this week.
- Buffalo's two big ones versus man coverage were both in short-yardage situations: a low red zone TD by Cook and a third-and-1 rollout play to Davis. On the Cook touchdown, it appeared that S Jaylinn Hawkins had the RB in man, but the Bills ran mesh traffic, the "it" low red zone man-beater in the NFL. Hawkins was lined up over Cook on the right side, and with the crossers serving as traffic in the middle of the field, Cook ran out into the left flat for six. That's a difficult coverage assignment for Hawkins to track Cook across the field while running through the trash. I wonder if someone on the other side (Austin or Schooler) was supposed to pick up Cook.
- Pass rush: Pharms (sack, hit, three hurries), Mapu (two hurries), Elliss, White, Tavai, Schooler, Jennings, Wise, Ngakoue (one hurry). Run stops: Elliss (2), Godchaux (2), Pharms, Dugger, Tavai, Ekuale, Johnson, Wise (1).
- Coverage: Dugger (6/5/32 yards), Austin (3/2/25 yards/PBU), Gonzalez (4/2/22 yards), Mapu (4/2/22 yards/INT/PBU), Jones (5/2/22 yards/PBU), Elliss (2/1/17 yards/PBU), Tavai (1/1/10 yards), Hawkins (1/1/4 yards/TD), Pettus (1/0/0).
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