The biggest question for the Patriots coming off an inspiring 19-3 victory on the road over the Bears is whether this was a one-off performance or a sustainable way to win games moving forward.
During his weekly morning-after-game video conference with reporters, head coach Jerod Mayo compared Sunday's win in Chicago to his team's victory over the Bengals in the season-opener.
"This game as a whole, to me, reminded me of the Cincinnati game as far as really controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and controlling the time of possession. It was very, very similar to that game," Coach Mayo said on Monday morning.
On the surface, there's nothing wrong with winning the way the Patriots did in Weeks 1 and 10. However, Coach Mayo later admitted that the win over the Bengals wasn't sustainable because New England only scored 16 points. This week, the offense scored 19 points, with rookie QB Drake Maye throwing for 184 yards. So what changed in Mayo's thinking between now and when he called the Bengals win "unsustainable" in early October? Let's let the head coach answer that.
"It's a totally different part of the season," Coach Mayo said. "This is who we are. We have to go out there, we have to control the line of scrimmage, we have to be able to run the ball, we have to stay ahead of the sticks, we have to play good defense…This is the formula."
Coach Mayo declared that this is the Patriots winning formula. Even with Maye emerging, their current personnel won't light up the scoreboard this season. It's also unrealistic to expect much more out of a patchwork offensive line than what they got on Sunday, which was a 37.9% pressure rate on Maye and their best rushing success rate in over a month at 41.9%, their third-highest success rate of the season on the ground.
After the run game was essentially non-existent in Maye's first three complete starts, New England was able to rush 31 times for 120 yards on non-scrambles. They had two explosive runs over ten yards and only a 12.9% stuff rate. This came against a leaky Bears run defense that came into the week ranked 30th in rush DVOA, but there was still some progress.
When it comes to sustainability, though, it's fair to wonder whether or not they'll have the same rushing success against stiffer competition. Plus, the film wasn't overly friendly to the passing game. New England orchestrated one touchdown drive, and the two biggest plays on that drive were blown coverages. In other words, errors by Chicago's defense directly led to big Pats plays. They deserve credit for taking advantage of those mistakes, but the 17-yarder to Douglas and a 24-yard completion to Hooper weren't exactly good offense beating good defense.
Furthermore, this was Maye's worst start based on my review of the film. Ironically, it's the only complete game he has won in four tries. Maye finished with ten minus plays to 7.5 plus plays. He started with five minuses in his first seven drop-backs, including an interception. The rookie's decision-making wasn't up to his usual standard, especially early on. The interception was what it was, but he also left two clean pockets and didn't see the field well on third down.
Eventually, Maye settled down a bit, registering two big-time throws and he nearly had a highlight-reel touchdown if WR K.J. Osborn didn't step out of bounds. However, it was mostly uneven for Maye, and the numbers bear that out (-0.09 EPA/play, three turnover-worthy plays).
Overall, my big-picture takeaway from the offense's performance was that Maye will play better, while it was nice for his teammates to pick him up rather than expecting him to be Superman to get a win. This matchup was difficult for a rookie against the fourth-ranked pass DVOA defense. Like the Patriots defense did to Caleb Williams, the Bears didn't let Maye's out of structure playmaking take over, forcing him to beat them by playing conventional quarterback.
If the Patriots can get this level of performance from Maye's supporting cast, a big if, then the third-overall pick will have better games than the one he had on Sunday. When that happens, we can start talking about New England's winning formula being sustainable in the long term.
Here is a thorough review of the defense and quick-hit film notes from the Patriots win over the Bears in Week 10.
Defense Review: Man Coverage is Sustainable for the Patriots Defense
Since the buzzword of the day is sustainability, let's discuss whether or not the Patriots defensive game plan that shut down Chicago's offense is a viable strategy moving forward.
In its best performance of the season, the numbers for New England's defense look outstanding. The Patriots put first-overall pick Caleb Williams in a rookie blender. Chicago averaged just 2.4 yards per play, the Bears were 1-14 on third down, and Williams was sacked nine times in a game where he generated -0.43 expected points added per drop-back – all season bests for a Patriots defense that hasn't found its mojo this season.
From a Chicago perspective, it's worth noting that the Bears passing game is a mess. Caleb struggled to make decisions, the play design and plan vs. pressure were lacking, and a talented group on paper is woefully underperforming to the point where changes must be coming in the windy city. At several points on this film, you're left asking yourself, "what is going on here?"
That said, the Patriots defensive staff still deserves credit for their best game plan this season and maybe of the last few years. Granted, you have to keep it one hundred about this Bears offense. It won't look like this every week against better competition. Still, you have to go back a ways to find the last time New England had a plan this good – it was Belichickian from Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington.
Simply put, the defense forced Williams to be a pocket passer, knowing that the scheme might be broken and the Bears rookie quarterback is not consistently playing on time. They did this by wisely playing to their personnel strengths in a man-coverage heavy game plan.
To that end, this is where the "sustainability" factor comes in for the defense. Although you can't expect to hold offenses to three points and 142 total yards every week, the Patriots using a high man coverage rate is, in fact, very sustainable. How do we know? They've been succeeding in man coverage the entire season, and the film and stats back that up.
With the second-highest man coverage rate in the NFL, the Patriots are sixth in average yards per pass attempt (5.6) and ninth in expected points added per play (-0.2) in man coverage. They rank that highly even while playing man-to-man 43.7% of the time, and they've only allowed three completions over 20 yards on 16 deep attempts in man coverage (18.8%).
On Sunday, they forced Williams to beat them from the pocket with a well-coordinated pass rush and tight man coverage. We'll get to the "Longhorn" package in a second, but they also did this in more conventional defensive structures in less obvious passing situations.
From a traditional structure standpoint, the Patriots base third-down package was to simulate pressure by using LB Jahlani Tavai in a low-hole spy role. Tavai would start on the line of scrimmage inside the tackles and then drop out into a short zone with eyes on Williams. The Pats would then fill all Williams's escape routes by bringing five rushers to cover every gap, while Tavai would help to short in-breaking routes and provide a second layer of pass rush if Caleb got out of the pocket. The strategy forced Williams to beat them with his arm. In the play above, the right side is well covered, Tavai helps over the ball, and Wise closes for a sack.
When the Patriots defense got the Bears into obvious passing situations, they deployed the "Longhorn" package named after special teams ace Brenden Schooler's alma mater. The grouping was a seven defensive back personnel grouping with Schooler as a QB spy. Above, the Pats run it as a drop-eight coverage with Schooler rotating down to spy Williams. New England is in cover two man or two-man, with two deep safeties helping the man coverage defenders over the top. By dropping eight into coverage, they can assign a defender to Williams, and the Bears QB is taken by surprise when Schooler closes so quickly.
Once they established that Williams couldn't run away from Schooler, Caleb became a pocket passer. This next clip is a great example of rush and coverage working together.
This time, the Patriots put Schooler on the line to simulate pressure. When he drops into a spy role, it allows the four-man pass rush to tee off without fear that Williams could scramble. Williams knows now that he can't leave the pocket with Schooler waiting, so he has to make a throw. The scheme gets top interior rusher Keion White a one-on-one with the right guard, who had slid to his left to account for a potential blitz, and White beats him off his outside edge to register a QB hit. In the backend, the Pats are playing cover one with a robber, and White applies pressure on Williams, allowing Marcus Jones time to recover after initially getting beat at the top of the route for a fourth down stop that iced the game.
After going back through the last few seasons, using Schooler as a spy in the "Longhorn" package is the best game-plan wrinkle the Patriots have had since 2020. In 2020, they held reigning MVP Lamar Jackson in check by inverting the defense with their hybrid safeties on the edges and edge rushers in the box to prevent Lamar from turning the corner on read-option designs. It was a genius plan from Belichick to beat a better Ravens team.
Although the Bears offense is flawed, Covington and Mayo deserve credit for devising a plan that got the most out of their personnel. Schooler was a fantastic wrinkle, Tavai played a key role but was kept out of high-stress man coverage assignments, and even veteran DB Jonathan Jones's deployment was different, playing a season-high 22 snaps at free safety.
Only time will tell if this was a defensive turnaround for New England. But they have a formula to play better defense than they did through nine weeks: man coverage is the answer.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Bears After Further Review
Offense
- The Patriots mostly handled the end-of-half situation perfectly, but we have to be consistent: the third-and-1 after taking their second timeout was a head-scratcher again. This time, they converted on a four-yard Hasty run, so it looks better than last week. However, it forced them to burn their last timeout with 16 seconds left. The 23-yard completion to Boutte, a beauty, took five seconds. If the Pats saved their final timeout by throwing on third down, they could've had one play to take a shot at the end zone. Instead, they barely got the spike off with one second left to get the kicker on the field (heads-up play by Boutte to give the ball to the ref). Maybe the sequence goes similarly if they're tackled in bounds on a third-down pass, but it still doesn't feel like they maximized the clock.
- My least favorite part of the job is being critical of players who do things the right way. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a hard worker, great in the locker room, and does the dirty work for this team by churning out tough yards and in blitz pickup. However, he left some yards on the field in this one. Stevenson couldn't break tackles when he was 1-on-1 with a defensive back twice, missed an open cutback lane on a third-and-2 stuff in the third quarter (3:40), and was stuffed again on an iffy decision to bounce a duo run on a third-and-3 when the line had decent push (4th, 3:08). His 11-yard run on a well-blocked pin-pull scheme could've been a huge play if he made the deep safety miss, but he couldn't get away from Byard. That play is where you want your franchise RB to burst to daylight.
- Echoing the same sentiment as Stevenson, RG Mike Onwenu is another example. Onwenu has been moved around too much by the staff, which is a fair excuse. But he allowed three more pressures with a QB hit and two hurries, getting beat by Bears DT Gervon Dexter twice in one-on-one reps. The hit was on an interior stunt, where Onwenu and C Ben Brown didn't pass it off successfully. Hopefully, Onwenu will settle in at RG.
- Rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk ran ten routes as a base receiver the team seems to trust in the run game. Polk's touchdown was timed perfectly, and he did stack his man on a go route on third down that Maye had to check down. He allowed a QB hit on the deep shot to Boutte, but that's a tough assignment against an edge rusher. Polk seems to win on verticals when he gets chances, so I'm expecting a shot to him when he's 1-on-1 soon.
- LT Vederian Lowe was inconsistent in pass protection this week. He allowed a team-high four pressures with a sack, QB hit, and two hurries. Lowe got beat by twitchy Bears rookie Austin Booker twice to the inside and allowed his QB hit on a chop-rip move by Jacob Martin. Lowe, who was hard on himself for his run-blocking last week, was better in that regard on Sunday. But he'll need to quickly straighten out his pass sets with Rams edge rusher Jared Verse up next.
- RT Trey Jacobs struggled with his pad level in the run game and with a tardy anchor at times against Bears DE Montez Sweat's bull rush, allowing three hurries. But given the situation the team has put him in, it's tough to be too critical of Jacobs. He also had a nice block in space on the 17-yard screen to Douglas to get up on the safety.
- Although he wasn't tested much in pass pro, C Ben Brown was serviceable outside of a bad shotgun snap on the second play of the game, which is all you can ask from him. LG Michael Jordan rebounded well, allowing just two hurries. You'll take this level of play.
- Solid game for TE Austin Hooper, who led the team with 64 yards on three catches. He made a great play on the ball to climb the ladder on a sail route (28 yards), had a nice run after the catch to take advantage of a Bears coverage bust on a crosser (24 yards), and wrapped his route around Henry on the high-low concept (12 yards). He is a reliable TE2.
- TE Hunter Henry only had one catch for 14 yards, but his run-blocking in this game was outstanding. Henry had at least two standout blocks on positive runs, one where he sealed the edge by getting two on the end of the line on outside zone and then walled off the play-side linebacker on a pin-pull scheme that gained six yards for a first down. Excellent work for Henry, who has improved as a run blocker as a Patriot.
- RB Antonio Gibson should be playing more, IMO. Gibson averaged 5.2 yards per carry on his five runs for 26 yards, besting Hasty (3.3) and Stevenson (3.7). His decisiveness with his reads and one-cut ability might be better suited for this scheme, which wants to create cutback lanes for the back to burst through, and Gibson has that acceleration and vision.
- My read on the decision to roll with K.J. Osborn (29 snaps) over Kendrick Bourne (zero) was that Osborn's grasp of the playbook supersedes Bourne's superior separation skills. Bourne, who missed the entire offseason recovering from a torn ACL, likely doesn't have the reps in AVP's system yet to master the playbook. Still, they might need him out there purely for his ability to get open, which was a problem on this film for the Pats wideouts.
- QB Pressures: Lowe (sack, hit, two hurries), Onwenu (hit, two hurries), Jacobs (three hurries), Jordan (two hurries), Brown (zero), Polk (QB hit).
Defense
- A mea culpa to DT Jeremiah Pharms for not including him in game observations this week: what a performance. Pharms had a sack, two hurries, and a team-high three run stuffs, including stuffs on back-to-back plays to stall Chicago's lone scoring drive. Coach Mayo rightfully singled Pharms out for his play. He was outstanding in this game.
- LB Jahlani Tavai played his best game of the season on Sunday with a newborn at home. Tavai had a sack, a hurry, a run stuff, broke up a pass in a zone drop, and was outstanding in a low rat/spy role. He also set the tone early by taking on a block to compress D'Andre Swift's space on his first carry, something they've missed without Ja'Whaun Bentley. In the passing game, Tavai was often tasked with a dual role, where he helped shallow crossers or slants and then served as a second layer if Williams scrambled. The new dad strength was on full display. Tavai was excellent.
- Another defender who gets high marks is DE Keion White. White had five pressures with a sack despite being double-teamed seven times. The Bears keyed on White in the pass rush, but he took advantage of his one-on-ones and finally got home late with his euro move for his sack. He also batted a pass at the line of scrimmage and had great backside pursuit to chase down Swift on a split-flow cutback. The second-year pro is starting to learn how to rush effectively within the framework of the defense.
- CB Christian Gonzalez had the boundary, as he said, locking up whoever lined up at the 'X' receiver on the backside of the formation. Gonzo allowed one catch for 18 yards on three targets (one drop). The lone decisive loss for Gonzalez was on a vertical by D.J. Moore that Williams should've pulled the trigger on, but Jon Jones was lurking at FS. Gonzalez's best rep was taking away Moore on a slant that was supposed to be Williams's "hot" on Pettus's sack. Overall, Gonzalez did his job so that the rest of the defense could do its thing.
- CB Marcus Jones was this close to jumping a screen for a pick-six, but a slight false step to the inside cost him. Overall, Jones lost two man coverage routes to Keenan Allen on quick hitters, but he was sticky in coverage and had two good sticks on the ball for stops. Solid film for Jones, who has been up and down in coverage this season.
- DB Jonathan Jones's role is evolving. With the Pats playing 25 drop-backs in man coverage, Jones was only a primary man coverage defender 11 times. Jones played a season-high 22 snaps at free safety, even playing some post-safety up top, and was also used as a robber/cut defender on crossers. I love this role for Jones at this stage of his career. He might not be as sticky as he once was as a man-coverage corner, but his straight-line speed, instincts, and open-field tackling ability could make him a great free safety for a second chapter.
- DB Dell Pettus is earning more playing time each week. He was sometimes suffocating in coverage on Bears TE Cole Kmet, and was much better this week with his eyes/reactions to runs from depth, closing down the alley on a run stuff by Jaquelin Roy. Plus, he finished the job when the scheme got him a free run at Williams on his sack. Pettus plays fast and bigger than his frame would suggest (6-0, 205) – a nice UDFA find by Eliot Wolf's crew.
- First extended reps for LB Sione Takitaki as a Patriot (28 snaps). His film was as advertised: nothing flashy, but he mostly did his job. Takitaki had a good man coverage rep on Kmet and passed off crossers in short zones. He'll throw his weight around in the run game, too. At 6-1, 240, Takitaki has a little more size to play in the box on early downs than Christian Elliss and is more assignment-sound than Raekwon McMillan. Hopefully, Takitaki can stay healthy. He left this game with a hamstring injury and did not return.
- EDGE Anfernee Jennings (seven pressures) and DL Deatrich Wise (sack, hurry) remain solid vets for this team. Jennings mostly got pressure collapsing the pocket on Williams, while Wise showed a good motor in year eight to keep working on his sack – hard hat guys.
- Although everyone was mostly "up" for the defense, DT Daniel Ekuale was the target for the Bears in the run game. Chicago pointed out most of its interior runs at Ekuale and found some success there. Ekuale is a good situational pass-rusher being asked to play as a base end because the Patriots are thin on the D-Line sans Christian Barmore.
- A few younger defenders who got some run on Sunday: Isaiah Bolden (12 snaps), Curtis Jacobs (six snaps), and Joe Giles-Harris (eight snaps), who was up from the practice squad. Bolden struggled in man coverage, allowing two catches on two targets for 10 yards. Giles-Harris can fly sideline-to-sideline. He has an intriguing developmental skill set.
- QB pressures: Jennings (7), White (5), Pharms (3), Tavai (2), Schooler (2), Wise (two), Pettus (one), Giles-Harris (1). Run stuffs: Pharms (3), M. Jones (2), Roy, Pettus, White, Tavai, Jennings (1).
- Coverage: M. Jones (4/2/21 yards/PBU), J. Jones (3/3/21 yards), M. Wilson (3/2/20 yards), Gonzalez (3/1/18 yards), Tavai (3/2/11 yards/PBU), Bolden (2/2/10 yards), Jacobs (1/1/9 yards), Mapu (1/1/6 yards), Giles-Harris (1/1/6 yards), Pettus (1/0/0/PBU). Hawkins (2/1/-2 yards).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
