The Patriots won their season finale over the Bills, and what transpired after Sunday's game changed the course of the football program in Foxborough.
On Sunday evening, Patriots chairman and CEO Robert Kraft announced that Jerod Mayo won't return as head coach in 2025. Watching the game film from the finale now that Mayo won't be in charge next season changes things. The next head coach will have a different view on the roster and likely different coordinators and assistant coaches. All those things are yet to be determined as New England begins its head coaching search.
Discussing anything related to scheme or game-planning doesn't make much sense with the coaching change. Plus, the backup Bills played this game like a preseason contest, running their base schemes with second and third-stringers on the field for most of Sunday's tilt. Frankly, a part of me wanted to toss this tape in the trash because jumping to conclusions from it would be irresponsible, so take this review with a grain of salt.
That said, EVP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf will remain with the organization and help aid in the head coaching search along with senior personnel executive Alonzo Highsmith. Since some personnel decision-makers could be involved in building the 2025 Pats, we'll break down the tape through the prism of evaluating the roster, starting with the quarterbacks.
During his press conference on Monday, one of Mr. Kraft's final remarks was, "It looks like we lucked out; we maybe have two quarterbacks." The Patriots chairman and CEO was referring to third-overall pick Drake Maye and sixth-round rookie Joe Milton. To be clear, there isn't a quarterback controversy. In fact, Maye, along with the Pats offseason war chest (No. 4 overall pick and ~$132M in cap space), is a draw for top head coaching candidates.
Still, after playing the future of the franchise only three snaps, the 193rd overall pick in the 2024 draft was impressive in a 23-16 victory. Milton ranked seventh in total QBR (73.9) and eighth in EPA per drop-back (+0.23) among 31 qualified quarterbacks in Week 18. Based on my charting, the rookie quarterback registered 10 plus plays to 4.5 minus throws/decisions, with some real signs of growth in his footwork, release quickness, and downfield accuracy.
Milton's raw talent is undeniable. He has elite arm talent, registering the second-fastest throw speed in the NextGen era on Sunday. The rookie also has excellent mobility, but the questions coming out of college were about Milton's accuracy, timing, and pocket presence. Milton would often lose control of his arm cannon, be late in his progressions, and get robotic at times in the pocket, which would impact his accuracy and pocket movement.
Although it's only one game vs. backups, Milton showed real progress with his drop-back footwork and accuracy, registering a +22.5% completion percentage over expectation, the second-highest mark by a QB in any game this season. He was a functional in-structure quarterback who was hitting the layups, flashing solid progression reads while keeping the throwing hallway aligned to his targets with a balanced base to throw the ball accurately.
There were times when Milton was still a tick late to pull the trigger, but the power in his arm often made up for it. Some quarterbacks have to anticipate to make up for a lack of arm strength. The rookie doesn't have that problem, so Milton can confirm what he's seeing post-snap for an extra half-beat. The other nitpick was seeing the voids in the coverage to anticipate receivers uncovering, which is the next step for Milton.
Overall, Milton is a viable project and potential backup heading into 2025, which is great for the Patriots. The short-term gain could be a high-ceiling QB2 for Maye, while the long-term value is having a legitimate trade asset. Given the context of this game, I'm not ready to say Milton has starter potential, but his development is an interesting storyline moving forward.
For one last time this season, here are my quick-hit film notes from the Patriots win over the Bills in Week 18.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Bills
Offense
- Besides some issues with shotgun snaps, Cole Strange put out some intriguing tape at center this week. Buffalo didn't test the Pats protections much with pressure schemes, so there wasn't much to glean from that perspective. Still, Strange had two standout combo blocks where he got to the second level on a seven-yard run and opened the cutback through the middle on outside zone (9 yards). He also had a really nice pass protection rep to the slide side to stay inside-out on the shade to keep Milton clean. I'm intrigued by Strange at center. He might have a future there if he can sharpen the details, like snapping and making line calls.
- RT Caedan Wallace needs grace after coming back from a severe lower leg injury. It's impressive that he was even out there, but without sufficient practice/game reps to work on his craft, Wallace couldn't make the progress you'd like to see. His pad level is expectedly inconsistent without much practice time. Plus, his footwork in pass protection was choppy, and he was opening his hips early, which led to a tardy anchor. I'm not holding it against Wallace after his injury, but he's starting from scratch in year two.
- LG Layden Robinson has the requisite play strength and finish to play at this level, but he's still raw in some areas. Robinson's hand placement tends to get too wide, causing him to give up his chest and get pressed back into the pocket. One instance where that occurred is when RB Antonio Gibson won on a double move, but Milton couldn't get an accurate pass off due to pressure (Q4, 5:16). He can throw his weight around in the run game, but Robinson doesn't sustain blocks because of his hand placement. There are also instances where he's late to seeing/reacting to post-snap movement. I'm not trying to pile on Robinson, but he needs to refine his game to be a starting guard.
- Although it took 18 weeks, it was cool to see WR Kayshon Boutte catch an RPO glance for an explosive (21 yards), and he ran some nice comebacks against Buffalo's backup CBs. The Pats need to upgrade the top of their WR depth chart, but Boutte will likely be in the room.
- RB Antonio Gibson seemed to fumble a fine handoff from Milton, but he ran hard with 56 yards after contact and made a great one-handed catch on a throw behind him for 11 yards. Doing that in a game with zero stakes was commendable for the veteran RB under contract.
- TE Austin Hooper also deserves credit for grinding it out through one more game as a pending free agent. Hooper put enough good tape out there to get a contract for 2025, so he risked injury by being out there. Hooper made a few tough catches in traffic and got the edge for Milton on his rush TD. Good on Hooper, who has been a pro's pro.
- TE Jaheim Bell has juice to run the seam, winning on a 19-yard catch and another seam win away from the ball. However, he's an inconsistent in-line/wing blocker in the run game, so he needs to be in a specific role where he's blocking on the move or from the backfield. Bell has a skill set that could work in the league. We'll see if he can carve out a role in the right scheme.
- QB Pressures: Jacobs (sack), Robinson (hit, two hurries), Lowe (hit, hurry), Wallace (hurry), Strange (hurry).
Defense
- The Patriots gave us one more low red-zone coverage bust trying to pass off the running back out of the backfield on Buffalo's lone touchdown of the game. As always, assigning blame for the bust is tough without knowing the call. However, it appeared that the Pats were in a "box" call with four defenders over three receivers in a tight bunch. Typically, first to the flat is on the outside corner, making rookie CB Marcellas Dial Jr. responsible for the back.
- Dial had some competitive coverage reps playing to his leverage in man coverage, and he got some help from LB Jahlani Tavai to hold up a crosser to make a touchdown-saving tackle. However, Dial got a little loose at the top of the route on a 20-yard crosser, 11-yard crosser, and gave up another 11-yarder while playing a bail technique on a comeback route. I wonder if there's a future at free safety for Dial. He plays faster than his 4.47s timed speed and is a good open-field tackler, which makes him an asset on special teams. It could translate to safety.
- CB Alex Austin continued to show well playing outside corner, allowing just one catch for negative yardage on four targets. He smothered Keon Coleman's stutter-and-go and was all over Mack Hollins's deep hitch route on his pass breakup. Austin has finished strong two years in a row. If he can put that together for an extended period, he could be in a starting CB rotation.
- EDGE Anfernee Jennings deserves credit for how hard he played in this game as one of a few regulars who logged significant snaps (64). Jennings had two hurries and made four run stuffs, easily winning his matchup over Bills backup RT Ryan Van Demark. Jennings played hard till the last snap, causing pressure on Buffalo's final fourth-down attempt to force an errant throw for a turnover on downs. The 23-yard run to his side wasn't on Jennings. He slanted inside to get penetration, and as became the norm with this defense, the Pats didn't appear to make him right. Kudos to Jennings for finishing out the string.
- It'll be interesting to see what the new coaching staff does with DE Keion White. In this game, the Pats played him as a hand-in-the-dirt defensive end, trying to get a look at him there. White continued to be inconsistent in the run game, struggling to get off a combo block (six yards) and press a puller on a tackle-trap play (five yards). There's ability there as an interior pass-rusher, but White hasn't blossomed into a three-down player. Is he a rotational interior rusher in obvious passing situations or can a new staff fix his run defense? We'll find out.
- S Marte Mapu regressed to some poor eye discipline moments against Buffalo's eye candy on this tape. He was late to diagnose a screen and got himself blocked into the sideline. Then, he didn't find the receiving threat as a cut/robber defender on Buffalo's toss-action scheme. Mapu has an intriguing skill set, but they have to get his eyes right.
- CB Isaiah Bolden covered a vertical route well and had a solid rep on a mesh crosser to make a tackle short of the sticks on 4th-and-5. He also could've potentially had a pick-six if DE Titus Leo didn't knock down a pass headed into Bolden's zone cover—another developmental DB with some upside as an outside corner or slot safety.
- DT Eric Johnson II's quickness on the interior showed up a few times. He had a nice swim move to occupy his gap, forcing the ball to bounce, and flashed good backside pursuit. Johnson struggled to carve out a role this year but had some nice reps vs. Buffalo's backup O-Line.
- If the Pats want to run more of a one-gap, attacking front, DTs Daniel Ekuale (hurry, two stuffs) and Jeremiah Pharms (two hurries) could be fits. They aren't pure two-gappers due to their lack of length, but they looked much better than the competition at times on Sunday.
- QB Pressures: Wise (hit, hurry), Tavai (hit), Pharms (two hurries), Jennings (two hurries), Ekuale (hurry). Run stop: Jennings (4), Godchaux (3), Elliss (2), Ekuale (2), Dial, T. Jones, Leo, Takitaki (1).
- Coverage: Dial (5/5/45 yards/TD), Bolden (3/2/17 yards), Elliss (2/1/13 yards/PBU), Pettus (4/3/11 yards/PBU), Battle (5/1/11 yards/2 PBUs), Dugger (1/1/9 yards), Hawkins (1/1/8 yards), Takitaki (1/1/6 yards), Mapu (1/1/5 yards), Tavai (1/1/5 yards), Schooler (1/0/0), Austin (4/1/-1 yards/PBU).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
