As we near the end of the season, our weekly reviews turn into year-long studies of how the Patriots ended up 3-11 in head coach Jerod Mayo's first season.

On the one hand, expectations were low for Coach Mayo in year one. The Patriots were coming off a four-win season where they picked a quarterback third-overall, hired an entirely new coaching staff, and reshaped their personnel department. Between the turnover in leadership and a rebuilding roster, most pundits predicted the Patriots would win between 3-5 games, and they're at three wins with three games left.

Still, as we move past the in-season frustrations of a losing campaign, chalking up year one of the Mayo-Wolf regime to a mulligan won't do anyone any favors. The holes in the roster that must be addressed in the offseason are pretty obvious, but we still have to identify the core issues that led to a second consecutive lost season. Before moving forward, you objectively review what went wrong for this year's team because the findings will dictate how this football program moves forward.

From this perspective, there are two major questions that need to be answered when the Patriots conduct a season-ending audit of their team. Although we all love talking offense, the first question is why did the Patriots defense regress to one of the worst units in the NFL in 2024?

There are a few obvious answers. One, they parted ways with the greatest defensive mind in professional football history. Although many of his coaches from that side of the ball remain, there was a strong chance that the defense would regress without Bill Belichick. However, going from ninth to 30th in DVOA was a much steeper drop-off than expected.

Second, several core contributors defensively had their seasons derailed by unforeseen circumstances: DT Christian Barmore (blood clots), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (shoulder), and S Jabrill Peppers (off-field) all missed significant time, with Bentley lost for the season following a shoulder injury in Week 2 and Barmore returning late in the year from a severe medical condition. Those three players were expected to be pillars for this defense, with Barmore and Peppers signing multi-year contract extensions with the club last offseason.

It's possible that the Patriots leadership will chalk up the defensive regression to those two things. With more experience for the post-Belichick coaching staff and improved personnel, the defense may find itself again. But you also have to ask why Belichick's holdovers on the roster have regressed, and there are some key areas where the stats aren't pretty.

After reviewing the film from Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, veteran defenders retained to keep this unit afloat while they broke in a new coaching staff were on the scene for several key plays that went against the Patriots (PFF grade): S Kyle Dugger (50.9), NT Davon Godchaux (52.2), LB Jahlani Tavai (62.3), and Peppers (67.9). Along with LB Anfernee Jennings, retaining those holdovers was meant to help seamlessly transition the defense into the post-Belichick era.

Instead, you could make a case that they've all regressed relative to their level of play last year, and the same could be said for core contributors on offense as well, such as G/T Mike Onwenu and lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson. The individual player regression cannot go unnoticed.

Statistically, New England has also regressed in key areas like third-down defense. After allowing the Cardinals to convert 10-of-15 third downs on Sunday, the Pats are now 24th in the league in third-down defense (42.4%). Last season, they finished seventh (36.3%). Early down defense ties into that as well. The Pats are 29th in expected points added allowed (+0.08) and 31st in drop-back EPA allowed (+0.23) on early downs.

On Sunday, their early-down struggles led to Arizona having an average of just 4.5 yards to go on third down, while the Cardinals only faced one third down over six yards in the game. When the defense is constantly in third-and-short, getting the offense off the field is much tougher.

Along with failing to get them into third-and-long for advantage defense, the Patriots made it too easy on Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and OC Drew Petzing to convert on the money down. The disguising to keep Arizona's offense guessing what the Patriots were in defensively wasn't there on this film, making them entirely too predictable.

The Cardinals undressed the Patriots coverages using motion to give Murray pre-snap indicators. Above, Murray sends RB James Conner on a fact-finding mission by motioning him out before returning to the backfield. All Conner is doing here is giving Murray information about the coverage. Conner is followed by Tavai when he motions, signaling to Murray that the Pats are in man coverage. Arizona then runs mesh traffic, a popular man beater, where the crossing routes over the middle cause traffic for man coverage defenders. Conner leaks out into the flat with Tavai coming from the box to cover him, breaks a tackle in space, and moves the chains.

This time, Arizona sniffed out a simulated pressure by using a pre-snap motion indicator. When the receiver goes in motion, the defense bumps over rather than following Greg Dortch in man. That tells Kyler that the Pats are likely in zone, meaning defenders on the line of scrimmage are going to drop out to form a zone structure, which is precisely what happens. With the back on a dual read to pick up the blitzer, Murray has plenty of time to allow the high-low concept to put Dugger in a bind, and TE Trey McBride has an easy conversion.

There are several other examples where the Cardinals used pre-snap motion to identify the coverage and then went to work for routine conversions. The Patriots defense made it way too easy for Arizona to move the chains on third down. Frankly, it would be tough to get off the field against any capable NFL offense being that easy to read.

The scary part is that it's about to get even harder for this defense with two matchups vs. the Bills in their final three games, with Buffalo's offense ranked second in DVOA. We can give this new regime grace in year one, but assuming things don't improve in the final three games, tough questions about the direction of this defense must be asked after the season.

Offense Review: Why Won't the Patriots Put the Game in Drake Maye's Hands?

One thing that always stands out during a quarterback's post-game press conference is the cliche that the quarterback has to "get the ball into the hands of the playmakers."

On the surface, that's obviously true. The quarterback's job is to distribute the ball as efficiently as possible so his weapons can make yards. Every quarterback I've covered, Brady, Cam, Mac, Zappe, and Maye, has echoed that sentiment at one point or another. However, in the current Patriots case, the quarterback is this offense's best playmaker, yet this coaching staff doesn't always put the game in Maye's hands, even against a middling Cardinals defense on Sunday.

Until further notice, New England's best hope of having an explosive offense is to leverage Maye's physical tools as much as possible to put stress on the defense. Instead, the game plan vs. Arizona called for nearly three-fourths of Maye's pass attempts to travel under 10 air yards, with seven screen passes on 29 drop-backs. Maye averaged -0.8 air yards per pass attempt in the first quarter. At the half, it was -0.6 air yards/attempt until they finally opened it up in the second half, where Maye went 9-of-13 for 131 yards on 12.1 air yards per pass attempt.

Most of those second-half passing yards came in garbage time, where the Pats QB1 himself admitted that Arizona began playing basic coverages to keep the top on the defense. Still, the opening script for this game wasn't one for a toolsy dual-threat quarterback, and we haven't even touched on the fact that the Pats once again passed up opportunities to incorporate Maye's mobility into a short-yardage red zone scenario that ended in a turnover on downs at the ARI 4.

"We have quarterback-designed runs, just haven't pulled them out yet, so there's no disagreement. We're all on the same page. Alex and the offensive staff do a good job putting together the game plan. I go in there, I offer my two cents, and we come out of the room as a unit, all on the same page," Coach Mayo told reporters during his Monday morning video conference.

The obvious follow-up is, why haven't the Patriots pulled out the designed quarterback runs for Maye yet? Furthermore, why is the passing script so conservative when you have a young quarterback with elite arm talent who has shown he's capable of slinging the rock? New England didn't ask their rookie quarterback to do much for most of this game. Fair or not to Maye, the offense is going to struggle if they don't put more on his plate, and in their first three drives in particular, the Patriots didn't play NFL-caliber offense with a slew of errors: two bad snaps, hold to wipe out third down, missed field goal, three plays that lost yardage (-run, sack, -screen).

They also played for long field goals not once but twice. First, Maye checked into a screen on third-and-10 from the ARI 38 (a missed 53-yard field goal ensued). Then, following an 18-yard screen to Marcus Jones, New England went run (-1), run/draw (-5), quick-game (8) to set up a 50-yard field goal down 10-zip in the second quarter. Why not see if your promising rookie quarterback can make a play for six points?

As for Maye himself, this was a weird film to grade because he did so little in the first 2.5 quarters. The rookie didn't register a plus play until there was 1:47 remaining in the third quarter with his team down 16-3, mainly because there weren't many chances before that for him to make plays. I split the interception between Maye and Boutte. Boutte needed to catch that ball, and it wasn't even that far behind him, but Maye was a beat late on the high-low concept (explained above). Eventually, the Pats QB1 saw some shots go in with five plus-plays in the fourth quarter, finishing with six pluses to four minuses in this game overall.

The coaching staff is getting a lot of heat, some of which is warranted. They probably have good reasons for wanting to manage Maye, mainly because of their inability to protect him if they have him hunt big plays more often and run him by design. It's certainly fair to consider the risk at 3-11. With low stakes from outside the playoff picture, the last thing this team needs is an injury to their most prized asset. Still, there are two other perspectives to consider as well.

First, losing stinks. That has to weigh on a young player's mind as Maye tries to build confidence in himself as a viable starting quarterback in this league. The other fair question is whether or not this coaching staff has the ability to amplify Maye's physical gifts to their fullest potential. With finer ingredients, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt might be able to cook a better meal, but eventually, we'll need to see it to believe it.

If they're holding things back schematically, two divisional games against the Bills might be the time to show their hand to build toward 2025.

Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Cardinals After Further Review

Offense

- The Patriots incorporated some option designs where Maye had post-snap reads or held the backside with the threat of his arm/legs. Those plays produced gains of 29, 15, and 10 yards, with Gibson's explosive run being a gap-read design where Maye is holding the unblocked backside edge. It's unclear if Maye truly has the option to keep the ball around the corner, but again, he's incorporated into the play as a rushing threat. The other two were RPOs with screens attached to pin-pull and a long trap scheme. Although you'd like to see them pick some high-leverage spots to use them, it at least speaks to the fact that they're in the playbook.

- The one screen design we can all get behind was the 18-yarder to Marcus Jones, where the Pats used orbit motion and the back release to create a four-strong side with three lead blockers for Jones, who then did the rest. If they're going to throw so many perimeter screens, Jones should get multiple opportunities to be the primary ball carrier.

- RB Antonio Gibson was the best player on the Patriots offense forcing a team-high 11 missed tackles with 44 rushing yards after contact and 33 yards after the catch. Gibson's contact balance, decisiveness, and explosive gear make him a great zone-scheme back. As we said before, he's a better fit for this system than Rhamondre, and he should keep getting touches.

- RB Rhamondre Stevenson looked fresher coming off the bye week with 54 yards after contact. Seeing him run through an arm tackle on a 12-yard run was good. He was doing that with less regularity before the bye. He also saw the cutback lane on a 10-yard run and made a doomed 4th-and-2 play work in the first half. But, even with iffy blocking, you'd like to see him plow through the line of scrimmage to get the yard on 4th-and-1.

- Rookie LG Layden Robinson was up-and-down, but he stood out more in the run game than he did in his last start vs. Indy. Robinson had a really nice reach-and-turn on a five-yard gain and helped combo the 1-tech on a Ben Brown pancake (3 yards). You could see some of that physicality show up on film, but he was called for a legit hold on third-and-5 and whiffed badly on his block on third-and-1 (turnover on downs drive).

- C Ben Brown didn't do himself any favors with Cole Strange nearing a return. Brown had two bad snaps and allowed three hurries, including a hurry allowed on Maye's interception. Brown had some nice moments in the run game, where he was competitive, but the pass pro and snap issues will have reporters asking about Strange's availability this week.

- LT Vederian Lowe struggled with a sack and three hurries allowed, along with being on the scene for four run stuffs, including whiffing on his block on the 4th-and-1 stuff. Lowe couldn't handle Baron Browning's speed on his sack allowed and struggled to square up base blocks in the run game. The Patriots need to address left tackle with a premium asset in the offseason.

- Quiet day on the right side for both RG Mike Onwenu (clean sheet) and RT Trey Jacobs (one hurry). They weren't tested much by a Cardinals front that doesn't have many dudes. But seeing Onwenu with a clean sheet in 16 one-on-one reps was good.

- WR Kayshon Boutte needed to come up with that catch on the interception and didn't finish his route on a deep post where Maye had the right idea with the deep safety's hips pointed in the other direction. Boutte ran a good route on his 16-yard slant, but his other targets were shaky.

- WR Kendrick Bourne ran a great go route on his 37-yard catch. They should be having Maye take at least one shot to Bourne per game. It's there often enough on film to keep going to it.

- Teams are starting to sit all over TE Hunter Henry on stick-style routes in the Pats quick-game package. They did have Henry run a stick-nod, but the Cardinals had the right coverage for it. It's begging for a double move, like an out-and-up of some sort.

- Pass Protection: Lowe (sack, three hurries), Brown (three hurries), Jacobs (hurry), Robinson (hurry), Onwenu (clean sheet).

Defense

- As Coach Mayo said, the Patriots best player on defense is second-year CB Christian Gonzalez. The Pats top first-round pick in the 2023 draft put the straps on the fourth overall pick in last year's draft, Cardinals rookie WR Marvis Harrison Jr. Gonzo lined up across from MHJ on 21 routes with 12 reps in man coverage where he allowed one catch for 23 yards on five targets with two pass breakups. Gonzalez did allow another 14-yard catch that was wiped out by penalty, but the 23-yarder on the first play from scrimmage was a well-executed pick play by the Cardinals.

On the four incompletions into Gonzalez's coverage on Harrison, the Pats CB1 was absolutely stellar. Gonzalez played perfect technique on all four plays, either suffocating the route to the point where Murray didn't have any place to put the ball or making a terrific pass breakup by playing the hands from out of phase to prevent a touchdown. When we make the All-Pro pitch for Gonzalez, the reps above will go in the presentation, that's for sure – elite cornerback play.

- Nice game for LB Christian Elliss, the Pats highest-graded defender by PFF, narrowly edging out Gonzo (84.6 overall grade). I'd give the game ball to Gonzalez, but Elliss was an honorable mention. His third-down rep where he disrupted the crossing route over the middle and then chased down a scrambling Kyler was as good as it gets for a linebacker in zone coverage. Overall, Elliss made three stops in coverage. The Pats need more guys rallying to the football like Elliss did on Sunday.

- LB Anfernee Jennings was solid in his role. Jennings tied for the team lead with three run stuffs and two pressures. He had an effective long-arm bull rush to walk the left tackle back into Kyler, but the Cardinals QB made a fantastic throw with his left tackle in his lap to TE Trey McBride—Kyler's best throw of the day.

- It's hard to decipher whether it's the defensive line, linebacker play, or both leading to struggles vs. the run. Still, the Patriots front seven doesn't press blocks or condense space with enough regularity for this two-gapping system. They really miss Bentley, who was excellent at bottling up runners. Even if he didn't make the tackle, Bentley's ability to force the ball carrier to play in tight quarters allowed others to rally to the ball. With this group, there's way too much space for runners to make defenders miss at the point of attack. You really saw that come into play with Arizona's gap-heavy run scheme on Sunday.

- LB Jahlani Tavai was among those who had an up-and-down performance. Tavai had a good rep early on against a power-shovel pass for a stuff but was on the scene for a 7-yard run, 5-yard run, two third down conversions, Conner's last touchdown run, and he missed an open-field tackle on a screen that went for 13 yards. Sione Takitaki was in a similar boat, with poor eyes leading to a vacated edge on a 17-yard run. The reads from the second level of the defense are inconsistent.

- S Kyle Dugger continues to be shaky in zone coverage in the middle of the field and missed three tackles, including two as the last line of defense on Conner's 53-yard run and Dortch's 39-yard screen explosive. Dugger allowed a team-high six catches for 59 yards, struggling to sort through high-low concepts in short zones. Dugger tends to let his eyes wander in zone, getting caught peeking into the backfield rather than locating the receiver in his area. The Pats will need better from their defensive captain moving forward.

- S Jabrill Peppers took responsibility for taking a bad angle and being caught flat-footed on Conner's 53-yard run. Peppers was unblocked in the hole with a chance to make the stop, but Conner turned on the jets to get by him. Peppers also over-ran a run where Conner bounced outside and gained six yards, which should've been a stuff. He had a nearly two-month layoff due to his off-field situation, so some rust was expected, but Peppers doesn't look like the same player he was before he landed on the commissioner's exempt list.

- DE Keion White logged two hurries plus drew a holding call with his signature arm-over move rushing over the center. However, he also let Murray out of the pocket with two blown edges and couldn't get off his block in a two-gapping technique on a six-yard run. White is tough to block in the interior pass rush, but his game still has some boom-or-bust.

- It's a shame that DT Christian Barmore isn't able to play to his usual level as he works his way back from blood clots. Nobody was expecting Barmore to play this season. But he failed to register a pressure despite getting 11 one-on-one reps. You wouldn't have seen that last year and other teams aren't fearing him as a result. His health condition is absolutely the reason why Barmore has not been as effective. Nobody is knocking him here. It's just what's on the film.

- Down game for NT Davon Godchaux. He got caught by surprise on a wham scheme where a tight end pancaked him, which you don't see very often for No. 92, and was late playing the cutback lane as the shaded nose tackle a few times. Nobody was particularly effective against the run, but Godchaux didn't play up to his usual standard in this one. In my opinion, the three run stuffs he logged were a bit deceiving.

- QB Pressures: White (two hurries), Jennings (two hurries), Dugger (hurry), Ekuale (hurry), Wise (hurry). Run stops: Jennings (3), Godchaux (3), Dugger (2), Tavai, Johnson, Peppers (1).

- Coverage: Dugger (7/6/59 yards), M. Jones (3/3/46 yards), Pettus (1/1/29 yards), Gonzalez (6/2/28 yards/2 PBUs), Tavai (4/4/23 yards), Peppers (2/2/20 yards), J. Jones (4/4/15 yards), Austin (1/1/9 yards), Takitaki (1/1/3 yards), Elliss (1/1/0 yards).

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer