Week 9 of the NFL season is officially in the books! We now turn our attention to Week 10, which features an 11-game, main slate on Sunday on DraftKings.
The Patriots return to action after their Week 9 bye to face off with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night. Since it's the Sunday Night Football game, it won't be included on the main DraftKings slate, but there is still plenty of fantasy appeal in the matchup for those playing the primetime/full schedule slates.
The Broncos are coming off one of their worst losses in recent history at the hands of the Eagles, and the Patriots will look to follow that blueprint. Tom Brady ($6,700) will try to exceed his season average of 22.7 DKFP, but it will be tough against a formidable Denver secondary.
However, the Broncos have been susceptible to the TE position this season. This could mean good things for Rob Gronkowski ($7,000) who comes into Week 10 with a 16.8 DKFP average on the season. Brady and Gronk have had success together in the past against Denver, and one can expect the Pats to attack the Broncos through the massive TE.
That said, we have a ton to break down for Sunday's main slate! So, let's jump right into all the info, and as always, you can reach me on the ol' Twitter machine **@SBuchanan24**.
GAME NOTES
Highest Scoring Game
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons – 53 projected points
Dallas at Atlanta is our highest projected game of this 11-game slate with the Falcons opening as slight favorites. Matt Ryan ($6,500) is coming off his best performance of the season, posting 22.42 DKFP by completing 24 of 38 passes for 313 yards and two scores. Surprisingly, this was only the second time this year that Ryan has exceeded 300 passing yards in a game. He'll take on a Cowboys team that's allowed an average of 18.44 DKFP to opposing QBs in eight games this season. Opposing teams have also targeted their wide receivers the most in the red zone against this Dallas defense with 29 targets, which leads the NFL by three. With receivers Julio Jones ($8,000) and Mohamed Sanu ($5,100) drawing a combined 23 targets in the red zone, they should have plenty of opportunities.
One last factor to keep in mind is the availability of Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800), as he's set to have hearing on his suspension on Thursday, Nov. 9. His status could change the projected scoring of this game dramatically.
Lowest Scoring Game
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears – 38 projected points
Green Bay at Chicago is currently tabbed as the lowest projected score of the week, with the Bears favored by nearly a touchdown. The Bears have been fantastic defensively, holding opposing QBs to an average of 13.8 DKFP and even more impressively, just 10.3 over the past four games, which include games against Cam Newton and Drew Brees. Packers QB Brett Hundley has now failed to throw a touchdown in two straight games, and it won't get much easier in Week 10. Overall, this will be a fairly tough game to get excited about regarding DFS production with the exception of Bears running back Jordan Howard. Heading into Week 10, the Packers are averaging 104 rushing yards allowed to opposing backs with six touchdowns scored.
DVP MATCHUPS
Format: Team vs. Opponent, Defense vs. Position Rank
Worst QB Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1st |
| Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3rd |
| Washington Redskins | Minnesota Vikings | 3rd |
Best QB Matchups
| Team | opp | dvp rank |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | New York Giants | 31st |
| New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | 30th |
| Los Angeles Rams | Houston Texans | 29th |
Worst RB Matchups
| team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | Houston Texans | 1st |
| Washington Redskins | Minnesota Vikings | 2nd |
| Detroit Lions | Cleveland Browns | 6th |
Best RB Matchups
| team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | 32nd |
| Houston Texans | Los Angeles Rams | 31st |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | 30th |
Worst WR Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1st |
| Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2nd |
| Houston Texans | Los Angeles Rams | 5th |
Best WR Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30th |
| Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 28th |
| Los Angeles Rams | Houston Texans | 27th |
Worst TE Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | 1st |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Chargers | 2nd |
| Dallas Cowboys | Atlanta Falcons | 3rd |
Best TE Matchups
| Team | OPP | DVP RANK |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | New York Giants | 32nd |
| Detroit Lions | Cleveland Browns | 30th |
| Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | 29th |
TARGET REPORT
Last Week's Leaders
| player | team | last week's opp | targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | IND | 16 |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | WAS | 12 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | CAR | 12 |
| Marquise Lee | JAX | CIN | 12 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | KC | 11 |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | ARZ | 11 |
| Marvin Jones | DET | GB | 11 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | TB | 11 |
| Davante Adams | GB | DET | 10 |
| Evan Engram | NYG | LAR | 10 |
Last Three Week's Leaders
| NAME | TEAM | LAST 3 WEEKS TARGETS | AVG TARGETS YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | 34 | 9.1 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 31 | 8.5 |
| Jack Doyle | IND | 30 | 8 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 30 | 9.1 |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | 28 | 6.3 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 28 | 9.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 27 | 11.5 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 26 | 9.3 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 24 | 7.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 23 | 5.9 |
LINEUP QUICK HITS
QB To Build Lineups Around...
Matthew Stafford ($6,800) –Stafford is fresh off his third straight 20+ DKFP performance, posting 25.44 against the Green Bay Packers. The Lions are huge favorites against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and this game could easily become a blowout. With that being said, Stafford could still reach value on his $6,800 salary, even if he doesn't have to throw as much in the second half. The Browns are allowing an average of just under 20 DKFP to opposing quarterbacks, a number that Stafford should be able to obtain with ease.
WR To Pair Him With...
Marvin Jones ($6,200) –Jones is coming off another monster game in Week 9 that saw him score 32.7 DKFP against the Packers. While Golden Tate ($6,800) has been the reliable target for Stafford, Jones has seen double-digit targets in three straight weeks, with 36 in his last three games. Jones has scored three times in that span as well, while Tate has scored only twice this season. The $500 discount from Tate is always a plus as well, as Jones is easily seeing the same, if not more, production as of late.
The Top Running Back Will Be...
Leonard Fournette ($8,400) –After sending a harsh message to Fournette and benching him in Week 9, he should be back with a vengeance in Week 10 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Fournette is averaging a whopping 23.2 DKFP in six games this season, scoring at least one touchdown in every game. He faces a lackluster Chargers defense that's averaging 119 rushing yards to opposing backs but with only three touchdowns scored. Nonetheless, Fournette is carrying the ball at least 20 times per game and should have plenty of chances to put up a big score this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
