Foxboro, MA – The Patriots lost in heartbreaking fashion in the final seconds to the Colts by a final score of 25-24 at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
The story we wanted to write was about rookie QB Drake Maye's breakout performance. Maye finished 24-of-30 for 238 yards and a touchdown while adding a 41-yard scramble. The Pats rookie had his second-highest expected points added output of the season (+9.4). With a Colts defense ripe for the taking, it was all coming together for Maye on Sunday.
Unfortunately, we have to write a story about a Pats team struggling not to beat themselves. In another winnable game, unforced errors and shaky situational football cost New England a win, particularly at the end of both halves, where they let the game slip through their fingers.
For example, after a 29-yard completion to Kayshon Boutte, the Patriots ended the half with this sequence: a timeout to stop the clock at 41 seconds, a one-yard run by Stevenson, a timeout to stop the clock at 30 seconds, a six-yard run by Stevenson, third and final timeout to stop the clock at 27 seconds, Maye sacked and offensive holding on third down, missed 25-yard field goal. Clearly, an opportunity for points lost.
In the second half, New England had another chance to pull away when CB Christian Gonzalez intercepted Colts QB Anthony Richardson with 8:06 left in the fourth quarter. However, the Pats offense punted for the first time in the game with a quick three-and-out, where they went run (two yards), run (-3 yards), and a third-down sack. Then, Indy went on a 19-play, 80-yard touchdown drive to win the game. In this instance, the Pats sat on three timeouts rather than using them to preserve the clock. With only 12 seconds left following the Colts game-winning two-point conversion, Slye's 68-yard field goal attempt was just short to end the game.
"Absolutely, there was a thought (to use timeouts on the Colts game-winning drive). We have also won a Super Bowl here doing it the other way. Keeping our time-outs is what I thought was best for the team," Coach Mayo said.
The Patriots missed opportunities were the reason they lost this game. They were 2-for-6 in the red zone (Indy was 3-for-4), got called for eight penalties, and the clock management at the end of both halves was questionable. For a team currently slated to pick fourth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, Sunday's game was a reminder that most NFL games come down to a handful of plays and situations. For head coach Jerod Mayo's team, they're just not quite good enough yet in those moments.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots drop to 3-10 with a loss to the Colts in Week 13.
1. SERVPRO Spotlight: Patriots QB Drake Maye Impresses Again in Losing Effort
Although the moral victories need to turn into wins, we'll have to settle for another silver lining performance for the Patriots rookie quarterback.
As mentioned, Sunday's loss to the Colts was one of Maye's better statistical performances since he took over as the Patriots starter. Along with a high EPA output (+9.4), Maye's +8.9 completion percentage over expectation ranks fourth in Week 13. The Pats rookie efficiently moved the ball using the short and intermediate passing game once again, as he did two weeks ago in a similarly impressive showing vs. the Rams.
One of the reasons why this felt like a potential breakout opportunity for Maye was that Colts DC Gus Bradley runs a predictable scheme. Bradley calls more zone coverage than any defensive play-caller in the NFL. In other words, you know what you're getting with Bradley, who also isn't a big blitzer, blitzing Maye on only 25.6% of his drop-backs on Sunday.
Without a deep pass attempt due to Indy's zone structures, Maye diced up zone coverage with a modest 6.3 air yards per pass attempt. When the Colts played zone, which they did on 34 of Maye's 39 drop-backs, Maye was 21-for-26 for 202 yards and an unlucky interception. In four man coverage drop-backs, Maye tossed a 16-yard touchdown and had a 41-yard scramble. It came at an inopportune time, but the Colts defense didn't force a punt until the fourth quarter.
When the Colts played zone coverage, OC Alex Van Pelt's go-to play call was a high-low concept often called "bow" or "hammer" in a West Coast offense. Above, Indy drops into a cover six (quarter-quarter-half) structure, and the Pats call "flag bow" on second down. The progression read for the quarterback typically goes like this: 1. Drag China (Pop) 2. Flag (Boutte) 3. Dig (Bourne) 4. Arrow (Henry). In this case, Maye peaks the front side of the read in his drop to move the zone and then works the backside dig to Kendrick Bourne for 18 yards.
In the rare instances that the Colts played man coverage, Maye had answers, too. This time, the Pats are trying to flood the short side of the field anticipating cover three. Instead, they get Cover-1 (man), but the single-high beater works just the same. With the Colts in base defense, New England gets TE Austin Hooper matched up with a linebacker (Zaire Franklin). Hooper wins on the corner route with Franklin on his back, so Maye throws it up for his 6-foot-4 tight end for six.
Opposing defenses are also finding out the hard way that they can't play man-to-man vs. Maye without accounting for the quarterback. With the coverage defenders' backs to the QB, Maye got out of the pocket for a 41-yard scramble in the first half. According to NextGen Stats, Maye reached a top speed of 19.39 MPH, his second-fastest career rush.
The QB winz crowd will say that Maye's highlights still aren't leading to wins, and that's objectively true as the Pats rookie is now 1-6 in games he started and finished. Maye also partially put his goal-line interception on himself for throwing to TE Hunter Henry's inside shoulder rather than leading Henry away from the coverage by placing the ball on his outside hip. Ultimately, it's an unlucky bounce that doesn't officially go down as a turnover-worthy play, but there were minor details on a critical interception where you can nitpick the quarterback.
Eventually, the Patriots need to start winning with Maye as their starting quarterback. But if he plays like he did on Sunday, the rookie will give his team a chance to win every week.
2. Patriots Run Defense Struggles With QB Run-Game vs. Colts' Anthony Richardson
The Patriots knew coming into Sunday's tilt that Colts QB Anthony Richardson would try to take the game over with his mobility. Unfortunately, the former fourth-overall pick did just that.
With 48 yards on nine rush attempts, Richardson had six successful runs and three runs of 10-plus yards, including a second-quarter touchdown and a game-winning two-point conversion. Richardson accumulated 37 of his 48 yards on designed runs, with only 11 yards on one scramble. The two play calls that burned the Pats run defense were a QB sweep design and a power-read on the two-point play that won the game.
On their game-winning touchdown drive, the Colts converted three fourth downs to keep their hopes alive. One of those came on a sweep play where they ran a crack block with LT Bernhard Raimann pulling out in front of the run as TE Andrew Ogletree pinned down edge-setter Anfernee Jennings. The run scheme put the Pats DBs at the point of attack, and they couldn't get off the field on fourth-and-2 with 1:53 remaining in the game.
Then, after Richardson threw a touchdown on another fourth-down conversion, the Colts two-point play was an inverted power-read with Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Richardson is reading the unblocked defender to the right (No. 48 Jahlani Tavai). When the Pats linebacker sets the edge, he follows the pulling guard into the end zone.
In the post-game locker room, one lament from Patriots defenders was that the refs appeared to miss an illegal chop block on DT Christian Barmore during the two-point play. With the right tackle (Goncalves) wrapped around Barmore's legs, LG Quenton Nelson engages with Barmore above the waist. By rule, that's a penalty on the Colts.
Richardson, who only threw for 109 yards, combined with Taylor on 19 successful runs to only seven stuffs. Taylor's numbers weren't eye-popping (25 rushes, 96 yards, zero 10-yard runs). But it was enough to keep the Colts offense on schedule, so Richardson only had to drop back 26 times. New England's defense didn't do enough to slow down Richardson and Taylor on the ground in Sunday's loss.
3. Red Zone Issues Continue to Haunt the Patriots On Both Sides of the Ball
The Patriots offense has now come away with touchdowns on just five of its last 15 trips inside the red zone (33.3%). After entering the week 29th in red zone efficiency, a 2-6 performance vs. the Colts will only make matters worse for their league ranking.
"I'm going to go back and watch the film. It's ultimately execution at that point in the game. That safety that usually plays in the deep part of the field out in the field now is now part of the count, and we just have to do a better job executing," Coach Mayo said of the red zone struggles.
From this perspective, play calling is a big reason the Patriots red-zone offense is struggling. As Coach Mayo said, they need to even up the numbers somehow in the run game with the safety now in the count. After watching Indy go 3-for-4 in the red zone with their mobile QB, why don't the Pats wake up their red zone offense by incorporating Maye as a running threat? On Sunday, some of the third-down calls were also iffy.
For example, Van Pelt dialed up a mesh-sit concept on third down on the Pats opening drive. Mesh is a man coverage beater with intersecting shallow crossers causing traffic, which could create natural picks, while the rail/wheel route by the RB is another man-coverage option. The "sit" route by TE Hunter Henry could be a zone beater if the crossers cause the short zones to widen and create a passing lane. But you don't see that as often with the space condensed in the red zone.
In this instance, the Colts, as they usually do, played zone coverage to cut off the shallow crossers. With the Pats running the play in tight quarters, the route spacing was off, so Maye took an 11-yard sack as the Patriots opening drive stalled with a field goal attempt.
Defensively, the Pats only made one red-zone stop in four trips. In the first quarter, another coverage bust led to a walk-in TD. With five defenders for four receivers, nobody took Taylor in the wing position out of the four-strong formation, with S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones both going with one receiver and LB Jahlani Tavai seemingly setting the edge to contain Richardson in the pocket. After similar coverage busts in Miami, it's frustrating not to see that cleaned up.
The Patriots must figure out their red zone issues on both sides of the ball ASAP.
4. CB Christian Gonzalez Provides Another Bright Spot for the Patriots
Returning to the silver linings department, the Patriots second-year cornerback is making a strong case for his first post-season honors with another stellar performance on Sunday.
This season, Gonzalez deserves consideration for Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors. Among 71 qualified corners, Gonzo ranks 11th in passer rating (71.4) and 13th in completion rate (56.3%) into his coverage while often taking the opponent's number-one receiver. On Sunday, Gonzalez split his time between Colts receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, allowing just two catches on four targets for 14 yards with an interception.
On the interception, the Pats CB noted that he recognized Pierce's route because the Colts dialed up the same play earlier in the game. With the Patriots in man coverage, Gonzalez trusted his instincts that Pierce would break across the field and drove underneath the route for his second pick of the season.
Although others might have slightly better coverage stats than Gonzalez, the numbers don't tell the whole story. The Pats play more man coverage than any defense in the NFL while often leaving Gonzo one-on-one against high-end receivers. From an assignment standpoint, nobody has it harder than Gonzalez, making his metrics even more impressive.
Between Maye, Gonzalez, and hybrid DE Keion White (three hurries), the Patriots have some building blocks from their last two draft classes. Although it's tough watching three promising young players on a struggling team, the trio is a glimmer of hope for the future in New England.
5. Evaluating the O-Line: Rookie Layden Robinson Starts at Left Guard vs. the Colts
The performance by the Patriots offensive line with Robinson starting at left guard was difficult to assess. From a blocking standpoint, the Pats only allowed a 25.6% pressure rate on 39 drop-backs, while they rushed for 141 yards on runs excluding QB scrambles. On the surface, that sounds like a good day at the office for the Pats O-Line.
However, the other side of the coin was seven penalties, one of which wiped out a touchdown (Onwenu) and another critical mental error on a third-and-1 stuff. According to RG Mike Onwenu, Maye changed the play right before snapping the ball, so Onwenu was still on the initial play call rather than the check, which is why he went in the wrong direction.
As for Robinson, he was called for two holds and allowed three pressures based on the initial charting. Coach Mayo gave the rookie credit for generating movement in the run game, but it was still an up-and-down performance for the fourth-round draft choice.
We'll have to watch the film for a proper evaluation. But, based on our live viewing, there were equal parts good and bad from the offensive line.
6. Patriots Rush for Season-High 200 Rushing Yards in the Loss to Indy
Staying on a similar subject, the Patriots running backs landed on the "ups" list for this scribe on Sunday. Although the quarterback contributed 59 scramble yards, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson still combined for 135 rushing yards on 25 attempts (5.4 YPC).
The Pats RB duo produced nine successful runs to only three stuffs, adding 107 rushing yards after contact and forcing a combined eight missed tackles. On Gibson's touchdown run, the Pats running back gained 10.7 of the 11 rushing yards after contact on a trap scheme.
Stevenson is still a great downhill runner. However, Gibson has been the better scheme fit in the Pats wide zone system. Gibson had all four 10-plus yard rushes for the Pats RBs, showing good feel for when to bounce runs outside or cut back. The free-agent addition should probably get a few more runs if they're going to continue featuring wide zone.
7. S Jabrill Peppers Returns, Leads Team With Nine Tackles, TFL
After sitting out the last eight games on the commissioner's exempt list, Peppers played every single defensive snap in his return on Sunday (58). The veteran safety was the team's leading tackler with nine combined tackles and logged a hurry on a blitz. Peppers was right in the middle of a second-and-goal stuff in the final minute of the game and helped force the lone red-zone stop of the game for the Pats defense by leveraging a mesh crosser. Peppers will likely have a major role in the defense now that he is eligible to play in games again.
8. Special Teams Takeaway: Communication Issues Lead to Key Missed Field Goal
Patriots kicker Joey Slye missed a 25-yard field goal before halftime. Speaking after the game, Slye said there were communication issues with the operation, which makes sense, seeing that NFL kickers don't miss chip shots often. To his credit, Slye's 68-yard attempt at the end of the game was very, very close. That was a heck of an effort. Still, the field goal operation cannot miss gimmies like it did to close out the first half.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
