Orchard Park, N.Y. – The Patriots best first-half performance of the season sputtered out in a 24-21 loss to the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo on Sunday.
In the opening two quarters, head coach Jerod Mayo's team emptied the clip. New England came out firing on a six-play, 44-yard opening touchdown drive. Defensively, they had answers for MVP favorite Josh Allen early on, forcing a punt on Buffalo's first possession that led to a surgical 16-play touchdown drive by the Patriots. With the Bills mafia stunned, New England had a 14-0 lead in the second quarter. As a massive underdog, the Pats were taking it to the Bills, out-gaining the heavy home favorites 127 to 11 yards in the first quarter.
Following a week where the outside noise coming after the local football program grew to a roar, the Patriots responded with their best first half of the season. The offensive play-calling was on point, the defense punched back against a high-powered Bills offense, and we even got designed quarterback runs, QB sneaks, and a successful fake punt. The prevailing thought for those opening two quarters was, "Who are these guys?"
However, reality set in when Buffalo marched down the field in nine plays to open the second half with a game-tying score. The Bills scored 24 straight points in a sloppy second half, particularly by the Patriot's offense, which turned the ball over twice, once in the high red zone and a backward pass recovered by Buffalo for a touchdown to give the Bills a 10-point cushion early in the fourth quarter – back-to-back Maye drop-backs ending in a turnover. Not ideal, to say the least.
On the one hand, the urgency that the Patriots showed in what's always a hostile environment was refreshing. You can reasonably ask why they didn't coach with this much urgency sooner. Maybe they would have a few more wins. But my read is that this was Coach Mayo's way of saying, "Hey, everyone, if we were to play a one-game playoff, this is what we would do." To that end, this was more like it from Mayo's staff.
The other side of the coin is that the Patriots roster talent didn't allow them to sustain their hot start, which isn't surprising. The Pats offense went over 40 minutes without scoring to go along with two catastrophic turnovers. Plus, the run defense continued to give up chunks to the tune of 6.3 yards per rush for Buffalo, and Allen sprinkled just enough magic dust to lift his team to a win. These are all things we've seen before from this Patriots team this season, leading to their 12th loss of the year.
New England deserves credit for playing the Bills much closer than most predicted. Many predicted a Buffalo blowout and the Pats held tough with the current kings of the AFC East. They deserve credit for that. However, they're still clearly undermanned to put it together for four quarters vs. a playoff-caliber opponent.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots drop to 3-12 on the season with a loss to the Bills in Week 16.
1. SERVPRO Spotlight: QB Drake Maye Connects with WR Kayshon Boutte on 28-Yard TD
The Patriots aggressive first-half approach began with their second opening drive touchdown of the season, where New England corrected a mistake it made the week prior in Arizona.
Last week, WR Kayshon Boutte made headlines when he was critical of the offensive play-calling following a 30-17 loss to the Cardinals. The critique by the Pats second-year wideout was that New England didn't attack Arizona's man coverage to make the Cardinals pay, with the Cards playing man 50 percent of the time in the first quarter.
"We knew they was gonna play man the whole game. But I feel like it's disrespectful when they go man first quarter, you know? So I feel like we need to be better at attacking that instead of being shy about it," Boutte told reporters in the post-game locker room in Arizona.
On Sunday, the Bills did the exact same thing, challenging the Patriots receivers to beat man coverage on New England's opening drive. This time, Boutte and Maye didn't shy away from seeing man-to-man. Buffalo was often in a man-free coverage structure, meaning they have a single-high safety in the deep middle with corners in single coverage.
On Boutte's touchdown, the Patriots played a third-and-4 in a three-by-one formation with the receivers condensed to Maye's left. As the Pats lone receiver to the right, Boutte is one-on-one with Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam, their No. 3 corner with starter Rasul Douglas inactive. Maye saw the matchup with his best go-ball receiver and gave Boutte a chance with a perfectly placed dime. Kudos also go to RB Antonio Gibson for an excellent blitz pickup to keep Maye clean to make the throw.
"Man coverage all around. Just got to win your route, and I won my route," Boutte said.
Although everyone wants more than moral victories, the Patriots took a step forward by going toe-to-toe with Buffalo. A big part of that was taking an attack-minded approach and seeing it be successful will be good for the group. Hopefully, they use that as a confidence builder moving forward.
2. Patriots QB Drake Maye Lights Up in First Half, Second-Half Turnovers Prove Costly
At halftime, the Patriots rookie quarterback was outplaying Bills superstar Josh Allen in his own house. It was pretty cool, honestly.
In the first two quarters, Maye was adding +0.35 expected points compared to Allen's -0.06 EPA output. The third-overall pick was dealing, with a big-time throw to Boutte and two other "plus" plays, including converting a third down via scramble. Later on, Maye had a successful designed QB run for 13 yards in the fourth quarter. At times, this was Maye unleashed, which is what we've wanted to see.
Along with the big-time throw to Boutte, Maye also had an off-platform completion for a 22-yard gain that was Allen-like with the Bills QB watching. The play design is a two-man route combination with a vertical to occupy the post-safety and a deep dig by Boutte. With immediate pressure in his face, Maye threw back to the middle of the field while his body was moving right, getting enough on the pass to hit Boutte (nice blitz pickup by Gibson again).
After being scorching hot in the first half, the second-half turnovers caused Maye's efficiency to fall to +0.14 expected points added for the game. It was still a net-positive performance and better than Allen (+0.07). But the two turnovers sunk New England in this game.
On the interception, the Pats are running a scissors concept (corner-post) where the routes intersect to stress the coverage. Typically, you run those routes at different depths to avoid a collision, but TE Austin Hooper and WR Kendrick Bourne bring a party to the route break, which causes Hooper to get hung up on his route. Maye threw it early with anticipation to the corner, but it was picked when Hooper couldn't finish his route.
As for the backward pass/fumble, this is a staple screen design for the Patriots this season. With two backs, Gibson releases as a lead blocker, and Stevenson swings into the flat. Unfortunately, RT Trey Jacobs misses the cut block on Greg Rousseau, allowing Rousseau to force the ball to go backward, leading to a catastrophic play. In hindsight, this play call backed up on their own goal line was a little too risky.
Overall, the Patriots rookie quarterback had some great moments. Still, Maye will need to kick the turnover bug at some point, with interceptions in seven consecutive games. Those aren't all on Maye, but it's the responsibility of the quarterback to protect the ball.
If this was a sign of things to come for the Allen vs. Maye matchup, you'll take this for the next decade or more.
3. Patriots Defense Man's Up on Bills Receivers to Limit Allen and Company to 17 Points
Moving over to the defense, the Patriots did a nice job holding the high-powered Bills passing attack to 154 passing yards on 29 attempts.
In the advanced metrics, Allen ranked in the 50th percentile for this game by adding +0.07 expected points on 34 drop-backs. Buffalo didn't have a single explosive play through the air, while Pats defenders registered five pass breakups to go along with an interception. New England's plan was to play a 64.7% man coverage rate against Allen, challenging his receivers to win their routes vs. the Pats cover corners. Without star WR Stefon Diggs, the Bills receivers aren't quite as scary. Buffalo still has good wideouts, but Diggs was always the Bills trump card when New England would play man coverage vs. Buffalo in the past.
The other key to the Pats defensive game plan was using a mush rush to keep Allen in the pocket. New England's defensive line didn't have many chances to rush the passer in this one, with the coaching staff harping on compressing the pocket around Allen to prevent him from extending plays and scrambling, which often leads to big plays for the Bills offense.
New England had some nifty blitz designs when the Patriots had their chances to come after Allen. On their lone sack of the game, the Pats showed pressure with S Kyle Dugger lined up in-line over the interior offensive line. At the snap, Dugger dropped out all the way to post-safety, with safety Marte Mapu blitzing off the edge instead. The pressure scheme got a free runner to the quarterback (Mapu), and Jeremiah Pharms closed the pocket to record the sack.
Along with excellent man coverage in the backend, the Patriots game plan takes great discipline from the defensive line to keep Allen contained in the pocket. New England's plan held the Bills to nearly 15 points under their season average, with Allen producing his fourth-lowest EPA per play output of what has been an MVP-caliber season for the Bills QB.
My hope was that we'd see something positive from defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington and Coach Mayo against the current king of the division. It was a nice bounce-back from the defensive brain trust.
4. Patriots Run Defense Struggles Continue in Loss to the Bills
Although the results were positive for the pass defense, the Patriots run defense continues to be the defense's Achilles heel, with Buffalo rushing for 172 yards on 28 attempts on Sunday.
On top of the traditional box-score stats, Buffalo added +0.11 expected points per rush and had a 52 percent rushing success rate, both above the 90th percentile. The Pats biggest issues stem from the second level struggling to get off blocks and compress space, opening cutback lanes for explosive ball carriers like Bills RB James Cooks.
After the Pats took a 14-point lead, the Bills answered right back with a 46-yard touchdown by Cook. It was a simple wide zone lead scheme by Buffalo out of a two-back formation. The Bills blockers eclipsed Pats linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Sione Takitaki, a common occurrence this season, and safety Marte Mapu over-ran the play as the deep safety. Cook saw the huge cutback lane, and with Mapu out of position, there's nobody there to make a play.
The Patriots two-gapping system is all about building a wall with great gap discipline and physicality at the point of attack. This season, the Pats linebackers are getting blocked too easily on the second level, and their entire defense hasn't been taking great angles to the ball. As a result, the open-field tackling at the second and third levels has been inconsistent.
New England must address the run defense with personnel upgrades in the front seven this offseason. Although they have needs on offense, they're too soft in the middle of the defense. It's among the biggest weaknesses on the team.
5. With Man Coverage Plan, a Look at the Patriots Matchups in the Seoncdary
With the Patriots playing over 64 percent of the game in man coverage, this was a matchup game for some on New England's defense. Mainly, veteran Jonathan Jones had the tough task of shadowing Bills leading receiver Khalil Shakir. In 16 routes covering Shakir, Jones was excellent, allowing two catches for 22 yards on five targets with a pass breakup.
Other than Jones on Shakir, the other matchups were determined mainly by sides, with CB Christian Gonzalez mostly lining up across from rookie Keon Coleman (11 routes). Gonzo covered Bills wideout Amari Cooper on six routes, allowing one catch for 10 yards. Based on my live viewing, this was an outstanding game for the Patriots corners vs. the Bills receivers.
6. Patriots Stick With Same Five Along the Offensive Line in Week 16
Despite having former first-rounder Cole Strange active for the first time, the Patriots opted for continuity along the offensive line. The group that played the whole game was LT Vederian Lowe, LG Layden Robinson, C Ben Brown, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Trey Jacobs.
On initial viewing, this was a down game for RT Trey Jacobs, who had 16 reps vs. future Hall of Fame pass-rusher Von Miller. Jacobs allowed a team-high five pressures, had two false starts, and missed the cut block on Rousseau, which led to the fumble-six. The other pressure point was at left guard, where rookie Layden Robinson allowed three pressures. In all, Maye was under pressure on 37.2% of his drop-backs. But some of that was the Bills sending the house on several low red zone plays late in the fourth quarter that Maye took responsibility for post-game.
As always, we'll watch the film to properly grade the offensive line, but the pressure rate was a tad high this week, especially when the Patriots needed to throw the ball in the fourth quarter.
7. RB Rhamondre Stevenson in the Middle of Two Turnovers as Pats Lose TO Battle
Speaking after the game, head coach Jerod Mayo pointed to his team's three turnovers to Buffalo's one giveaway as a key to the game that went in the Bills favor. The Pats lead-back was in the mix on two of those three turnovers. It's tough to put the backward pass on Stevenson, as it was mainly on Maye for throwing it and Jacobs for missing his block. However, Rhamondre fumbled for an NFL-high seventh time on Sunday, setting up a Bills field goal. Stevenson now has as many fumbles this season as his first years combined. He has been grinding out difficult yards with bodies flying around him all year, but Stevenson has to clean up his fumbling issues as we look ahead. Stevenson signed a four-year extension with the Patriots this past offseason, so his ball security must improve.
8. Patriots Execute a Fake Punt and Kickoff the Game with 42-Yard Return
Despite being down stud punt returner Marcus Jones, the Patriots had a strong showing on special teams. Pats running back Antonio Gibson opened the game with a 42-yard kickoff return that set up the offense with great field position. Then, New England extended a drive by converting a fake punt on a 4th-and-1, an example of their aggressiveness.
On the fake punt, the Patriots snapped the ball directly to personal protector Dell Pettus. Buffalo actually played the fake punt well, but the Pats got a good push on the interior to make the line to gain. Unfortunately, the offense couldn't take advantage of the successful fake punt, but it was a good moment for special teams coordinator Jermey Springer's unit. Lastly, recently signed WR Alex Erickson replaced Jones (punts) and Hasty (kickoffs) as a primary returner.
On the fake punt, the Patriots snapped the ball directly to personal protector Dell Pettus. Buffalo actually played the fake punt well, but the Pats got a good push on the interior to make the line to gain. Unfortunately, the offense couldn't take advantage of the successful fake punt, but it was a good moment for special teams coordinator Jeremey Springer's unit. Lastly, recently signed WR Alex Erickson replaced Jones (punts) and Hasty (kickoffs) as a primary returner.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
