Foxborough, MA – The Patriots hoped to build off last week's competitive effort in Buffalo with a similar performance on Saturday vs. the Chargers. Instead, things went in the other direction.
New England allowed seven-straight scoring drives in a 40-7 loss to the playoff-bound Chargers in a post-Christmas contest at Gillette Stadium. Statistically, LA dominated this game. The Chargers had 428 total yards to 181 yards for the home team and went 10-for-17 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down. Comparatively speaking, the Pats were 2-for-13 on late downs, leading to Los Angeles doubling up New England in time of possession (40:34 to 19:26).
At 3-13, the reality for the Patriots is that competitive losses while facing playoff-caliber opponents are a satisfactory result. We gave head coach Jerod Mayo's team flowers for giving the Bills a game last week. However, the product the Patriots put on the field vs. the Chargers was not competitive, erasing the progress they made six days ago.
"This is what I told the players, there's really nothing good to take out of that game today," Coach Mayo told reporters after the game. "Just the lack of execution. Look, that's a good football team, and they're a well-coached football team. We just didn't play well enough in any phase of the game. No complementary football and that's what you get."
Later in his press conference, Coach Mayo was asked the chicken or the egg question: is it a talent issue or a coaching issue? Mayo's answer was commendable in that it avoided public finger-pointing, but from the outside looking in, the answer is a bit of both (talent and coaching).
"I have full confidence in the staff. I have full confidence in the players in there. I think, again, it just comes down to being consistent across the board," Coach Mayo said.
When you look at this roster, personnel chief Eliot Wolf has holes to fill at nearly every key position besides QB1 (Drake Maye) and CB1 (Christian Gonzalez). But before we put Wolf at center stage this offseason, the expectation is to compete as the entire program goes through the growing pains in year one of a rebuild. That doesn't necessarily mean pulling off an upset over a 10-win Chargers team, even if that would be nice. Still, a standard needs to be set for this regime to get where it wants to go in the future. That standard was met in Buffalo, but the Patriots failed to keep the same energy on Saturday.
Simply put, the Pats were overmatched. With two letdowns in their last three games, it feels like the "empty the tank" game in Buffalo was an outlier. Assuming the Bills rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 18, Saturday's matchup vs. the Chargers was New England's last chance to show signs of late-season progress. As Coach Mayo said, it wasn't good enough. The one thing this football team couldn't afford to do was lay an egg, and with a blowout loss to the Chargers, it feels like everything is on the table to get this ship pointed in the right direction.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots fell to 3-13 with a loss to the Chargers on Saturday.
1. SERVPRO Spotlight: Chargers Offense Takes Down Pats Man Coverages in Route to Season-High 40 Points
Speaking to members of the Patriots defense following the game, the Chargers had the better game plan for New England's man coverages.
Heading into Week 17, the Patriots were playing the second-highest rate of man coverage (45.7%) and the highest man coverage rate on third down (50%). On Saturday, the Pats continued leaning into that tendency with a 45 percent man coverage rate vs. the Chargers. In the coaching staff's defense, the Pats were very successful in man-to-man vs. the Bills last week. With similar execution, it was fair to expect similar results against a Charger offense whose receivers are comparable to Buffalo's group of wideouts and tight ends. In theory, the Pats should've been able to hang with Los Angeles in man coverage like they did a week ago.
However, New England's execution in their man coverage calls wasn't nearly as sharp, with some players pointing to "two different teams" showing up this week compared to last week. With the visitors expecting man coverage, the Chargers were armed with man-beaters, running crossers and rub routes to create havoc for the Pats secondary.
"Coming into the week, we knew that was going to be their game plan. We've been beat on that multiple times this year. We knew coming in they were going to try to run a lot of man-beaters like tight formations to try to get us against picks and things," CB Alex Austin told Patriots.com. "Man coverage, it's hard. It's hard when you got a lot of crossers and a lot of traffic. But you got to find a way to make it happen. Got to execute."
One example that came early in this game was Herbert's touchdown strike to speedy wideout Derius Davis. With the Chargers in condensed formation, Davis ran a crosser against Austin, who was playing a trial technique with post-safety help from S Kyle Dugger. Austin appeared to pass off Davis to Dugger when the Chargers wideout ran across the field, but the exchange didn't go smoothly, putting Dugger in a tough spot to pick up the streaking Davis from his deep safety perch.
Austin took responsibility for the touchdown, saying he needed to stay on the crosser longer to force Herbert to throw with more air under the ball. When the Pats CB fell off the route, it allowed Herbert to drive the ball on a line, making it challenging for Dugger to make a play.
Later, Chargers rookie WR Ladd McConkey caught a 40-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter. Los Angeles selected McConkey with the Patriots original draft choice in the second round (34th overall), with the Pats trading down with LA to select WR Ja'Lynn Polk (37th overall).
On McConkey's long touchdown catch, it appears the Patriots were bracketing the Chargers rookie in the slot with an inside-out "cone" bracket, meaning vet CB Jonathan Jones is tasked with covering out-breaking routes while Dugger takes anything breaking into the middle of the field. The best way for a receiver to combat this bracket call is to split the double-team right down the middle, which is what McConkey does by running up the seam for a touchdown.
The Pats issues in man coverage were exacerbated by losing top CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) in the second quarter. But the Chargers were well on their way to a productive day offensively. In all, Herbert was 13-for-19 for 163 yards and two touchdowns when the Pats played man. Last week, Bills QB Josh Allen was just 7-for-18 for 57 yards vs. man coverage.
Along with providing the secondary with a more productive pass rush, New England must become less predictable defensively. They're mostly a good man coverage defense, but it can't be the only thing they do well. Well-coached teams like the Chargers will game plan for man coverage, so the Patriots need to develop a counter in the future.
2. Patriots QB Drake Maye Exits Game and Returns in Weird Day at the Office
On the Patriots first third down, rookie QB Drake Maye left the pocket to roll right when he saw Chargers pass-rusher Joey Bosa vacate the edge.
As Maye turned upfield to scramble, he "got his bell rung" by Chargers corner Cam Hart. Maye left the game briefly to be evaluated for a concussion, missing one drive before getting the all-clear. Although it was brief, Maye having to leave the game to be evaluated for a head injury seemed to throw his entire rhythm off in what was a down game by his standards.
Maye had a season-worst -0.51 expected points added per drop-back on Saturday. The Pats rookie had five minus plays and two turnover-worthy plays by my live charting. Although he was cleared to return to the game, one has to think the blow Maye took knocked him off his game. In particular, it felt like Maye's play under pressure wasn't what we've grown accustomed to seeing, with the rookie vacating pockets early.
In Maye's defense, the Patriots first-year quarterback was under pressure on an alarming 54.8% of his drop-backs. Regardless of experience or talent level, no quarterback can operate under those circumstances. Still, there were times when Maye got sped up in the pocket.
For example, the Chargers often sent pressure at Maye on late downs, including two failed fourth-down attempts by the Patriots. Above, LA overloads the left side with stud S Derwin James blitzing to make the quarterback throw hot. James times up his blitz perfectly, but Maye has an open Antonio Gibson in the left flat as a blitz-beater if he stays in the pocket. Instead, Maye tries to run away from the pressure and takes a 15-yard sack.
To his credit, Maye had four "plus" plays, including three on New England's lone scoring drive. There were still flashes of brilliance from the third-overall pick, but it was inconsistent like the rest of the team.
One of those plus plays was a terrific "free play" touchdown to DeMario Douglas. In the play, the Chargers jump offside over the left tackle, meaning Maye has a free play with a penalty coming on the defense. The Pats ran four verticals when they noticed LA was offside, and Maye threw a heave to Douglas, who made a terrific adjustment to come back to the ball.
Like every young quarterback, there are times when Maye creates some of his own issues by looking to vacate the pocket rather than standing in against the blitz. For instance, Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams took seven sacks doing similar things on Christmas Day. It's a learning curve for all rookie quarterbacks that you can't make plays off-script as consistently as you did in college. Instead, you have to know your answers or "hot" reads to deliver quickly from the pocket.
The bigger question with Maye remains about what's going on around him. He has a ton of potential and is already trending toward being a franchise QB. Still, in a vacuum, the head injury threw off his day, and Maye never really got it going after that.
3. Second-Quarter Fumble Sums Up the Patriots Offense's Struggles
After clearing concussion protocol, Maye's first series back in the game ended with a self-inflicted wound on a failed toss play that resulted in a fumble recovered by the Chargers.
New England was trying to run an old-school football play that was a staple of the Wing-T offense back in the day. With the Pats trying to sell a toss scheme to the back, slot receiver Pop Douglas bends his path inside for Maye to toss the ball to Douglas instead. In the clip above, Buffalo ran the play New England was going for successfully for a touchdown.
Unfortunately, the Patriots version doesn't hit with the same timing, as James alters the play again. The Chargers safety sniffs out the play design, altering Douglas's rush path, and Maye's toss never cleanly gets to Pop, with James falling on the fumble to set LA up at the NE 44.
"We've practiced the play for a long time. I felt like we were executing it well. They happened to bring the nickel off the edge, and I think he just kind of – right by Pop, and that's unfortunate. Just a good call on their part. I've got to give him a better ball to catch," Maye told reporters.
Although the quarterback needs to make a better toss, the bigger-picture issue speaks to a nitpick of offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Like the backward pass/fumble-six in Buffalo, AVP needs to know his personnel limitations. Currently, the Patriots don't have the offensive personnel to execute a high-level scheme like the Bills did on their touchdown.
Ideally, the Pats could execute a play like this as a nice counter to their staple toss schemes. But, as an offense, they're not there yet. As the play-caller, Van Pelt needs to know that and call plays that the players on the field can execute, even if that means being more vanilla.
4. Patriots Forced Into Switch at Center, But Rookie OT Caedan Wallace Doesn't Start
As mentioned, the Patriots allowed a 54.8% pressure rate against the Chargers, the highest pressure rate Maye has seen in a game since taking over as the starter. Talk all you want about shiny new toys at wide receiver. Maye and the offense will keep failing until the Patriots fix their offensive line. Every draft and free agency conversation should be about Cam Robinson, Will Campbell, or Kelvin Banks.
That said, the Patriots did get a late-season look at former first-rounder Cole Strange at center. Strange had a few mental miscues playing a new position, including missing an off-ball blitzer and snapping the early when the rest of the offense wasn't ready. He also struggled to move bodies in the run game, but the entire O-Line didn't generate any movements vs. LA's front. We'll see how the film looks tomorrow.
Another coaching decision was to stick with waiver-claim Trey Jacobs over third-round cookie Ceadan Wallace at right tackle. Wallace was active for the game, but besides 14 snaps in mop-up duty, didn't see the field on offense. They should prioritize reps for Wallace in Week 18.
Again, the Patriots offensive line is the biggest weakness on this team. Maye invited some of the pressure, but on the whole, it's a weekly issue up front. I'm sorry, Tet McMillan truthers, but New England has to build a proper football team, and that starts in the trenches.
5. Speaking of the Trenches, the Pats Pass Rush Continues to be Ineffective
Another troubling season-long trend for the Patriots is the lack of pressure on quarterbacks. New England managed just seven total pressured drop-backs on Herbert, or 17.5%, which is a familiar theme. On the season, the Pats are 30th in team pressure rate (28.6%). Along with offensive line and wide receiver, pass-rusher is at top offseason need.
After making some headlines earlier this week, second-year DE Keion White reiterated his frustrations with the defense in his post-game comments. White's role was slightly reduced to passing downs, with the 2023 second-rounder playing 38 snaps while logging two of the team's seven pressures.
"If changes aren't made, then what are we doing? Again, the NFL is a production-based business, so if we're not doing anything to change our production, which is loss, what are we doing?" White told reporters in the Patriots locker room following the game. White then acknowledged that it starts with him improving himself as well.
The question that needs answering is, is the defensive regression all talent-based? After ranking ninth in DVOA last season, New England entered the week ranked 30th in DVOA, then allowed a season-high 40 points to the Chargers. From this perspective, it's fair to wonder if the Pats are getting the proper coaching on the defensive side of the ball.
6. Stevenson Starts Despite Hints at Being Demoted Following Fumbling Issues
During his pre-game interview with 98.5's Scott Zolak, Coach Mayo said Antonio Gibson would start in place of lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson on Saturday. Last week, Stevenson fumbled for a league-high seventh time, and now has as many fumbles this season as his first three seasons combined. However, when the Pats starting offense took the field, Stevenson was among those who took the first snap. In fact, the play call was a rush attempt by Stevenson.
"That was just a coach's decision," Coach Mayo said. "I understand your question. Look, it's a coach's decision. So I'll leave it at that.
Despite our best efforts, we didn't get a great explanation as to why Coach Mayo changed course by starting Stevenson on Saturday.
7. Highlighting the Wide Receiver Rotation for the Patriots Offense
With the Chargers talented rookie making plays, the Patriots rookie wideouts didn't play much on Saturday. Douglas led the way in both snaps (45) and receiving yards (46). Here were the snap counts for the Pats wideouts: Douglas (45), Boutte (36), Bourne (34), Polk (12), Baker (11).
8. Special Teams Ace Brenden Schooler Makes One Last Pitch for Pro Bowl
Although there weren't many silvering linings, one was the play of special teams ace Brenden Schooler. Schooler kept adding to his Pro Bowl-caliber resume with a tackle on the opening kickoff, another forced fair catch, and a drawn penalty that wiped out a big return.
On his forced fair catch, the Chargers tried to single-block Schooler from his gunner spot, and Schooler ran right by the lone blocker to force the returner to fair catch the ball at the LAC 9. Along with Gonzalez at corner, Schooler is the Pats best chance at having a Pro Bowler this season.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
