Foxborough, MA – There are two ways to look at the Patriots 28-22 loss to the Rams at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, a competitive game that ultimately ended in defeat.
From a glass-half-full perspective, two games in Patriots history are, comparatively speaking, a source of optimism after another loss. Going back to the 2001 season, the GOAT's first as a starter, Tom Brady had some close calls like this that served as building blocks for a dynasty. In 2001, Brady fell to these same Rams in a 24-17 loss at the old Foxboro Stadium. Brady's stat line wasn't as impressive as Drake Maye's, but the game was a competitive loss where the Patriots showed they were moving in the right direction.
Earlier that season, Brady's coming out party was a 29-26 victory over the Chargers. That day, Brady was 33-54 for 364 yards and two touchdowns. On Sunday, Maye split the difference in his best performance yet. Maye threw for a career-high 282 yards and two touchdowns, adding a season-best +0.25 expected points per drop-back in the loss. Maye's stat line was more on par with the Charger game for Brady, but the result, opponent, and time of year resembled the Rams game in Week 10, 2001.
Nobody is saying that the Patriots are about to rattle off nine straight victories to win the Super Bowl like those Patriots. However, we might look at this game as the moment when we knew they could compete like we did when the Pats suffered a close loss to the greatest show on turf.
On the other hand, we constantly harp on the coaches putting the players in the best positions to succeed. It's critical for head coach Jerod Mayo's staff to have good game plans and make the proper in-game coaching decisions, especially in this rebuilding phase. Last week, the coaching staff did that to a tee, but this wasn't as clean an operation on Sunday.
First, New England opted to put top CB Christian Gonzalez on the boundary rather than having him shadow Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. In the end, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for 229 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Defensive play-calller DeMarcus Covington also blitzed Rams QB Matthew Stafford, a savvy 16-year vet, 17 times, including on a 69-yard touchdown to Kupp where the Patriots sent the house.
The other angle was a slew of in-game coaching decisions. Coach Mayo elected to punt rather than attempt a 54-yard field goal, kicked a field goal on 4th-and-goal from the LA 2, kicked an extra point down nine points in the fourth quarter, and lined up to go for it on fourth down trailing by nine points with 4:54 left. The extra point decision was interesting because the Pats HC went for two in the same spot in London.
Ultimately, it's easy to second guess Coach Mayo's decisions from the press box, stands, or the couch. Still, early returns in the Mayo era are that the Patriots head coach is going by his own system. According to analytics models, Mayo is not following the math, with the Pats ranking 27th in how often they should go for it compared to how often they do.
With the Patriots trying to win on the margins, these are key moments in a game. The math isn't perfect either, so if you don't care about what the nerds are telling Coach Mayo to do, that's fair. But when you lose a one-score game, these coaching decisions will be scrutinized.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots drop to 3-8 with a loss to the Rams in Week 11.
1. SERPRO Spotlight: Patriots Offense, QB Drake Maye Show Progress in Loss to the Rams
Look, it's understandable if you're growing tired of moral victories. The Patriots offense topping out at 22 points wasn't enough, and they had the ball with a chance to win but failed to score.
However, by and large, this was the best offensive performance of the season for OC Alex Van Pelt's group. Van Pelt helped by having a few tricks up his sleeve that we'll get to, but the most important thing was that rookie QB Drake Maye is showing franchise quarterback potential.
While facing a defense that ranked second in expected points added over the last month, Maye had his best game in a promising rookie season. The third-overall pick set season-highs in passing yards (282), completions (30), EPA per play (+0.27), drop-back success rate (63%), and completion percentage over expectation (+11.2%). Based on my live charting, Maye had nine 'plus' plays to four minuses – he was terrific for 58 minutes.
Maye's best throw came when he diagnosed an exotic pressure by the Rams defense. LA ran a creeper scheme where two defenders drop off the line of scrimmage while an off-the-line defender blitzes (No. 39). Maye knew the blitzer was a free runner, stared down the barrel while subtly drifting to his right to buy time, and replaced the blitz with the ball by finding WR DeMario Douglas on a shallow crosser for 28 yards.
Maye's quick decision-making and ability to read coverages are advanced for a first-year quarterback. That was on display again to cap off the same drive when Maye connected with WR Kendrick Bourne on a nine-yard touchdown. With the two short zone defenders on that side of the field widening with the back in the flat, Maye immediately sees the passing window opening to Bourne on the slant, putting it on the veteran wideout for his first touchdown.
Along with getting Maye in a rhythm, Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who has taken his fair share of the heat for directing an offense that entered the week ranked 31st in scoring, was also good in this one. For the first time this season, New England had a special package built into the offense for explosive return man Marcus Jones, who has played 19 offensive snaps in his first two seasons. With Jones on the field, the Pats ran two plays that gained 14 yards, which is worth building on.
Speaking to Patriots.com, Jones explained that the coaching staff approached him this past week about using him on offense on Sunday, so this was a recent development.
"I'm definitely open to it [playing more on offense], but you said the line, mainly defense. But, ya, I'm definitely open to it," Jones told me. "I want to say it probably started at the beginning of the week, and it kind of just went on from there. It was great to hear that they wanted to do that. Being able to do it was a blessing."
The other new wrinkle Van Pelt threw in there was a thicc six. After declaring as an eligible receiver, OT Vederian Lowe caught a four-yard touchdown pass from Maye in the fourth quarter. Lowe lined up as the jumbo tight end, engaged in a block with edge rusher Jared Verse, and then released into the end zone, where he was wide open for the score.
"It was just something we worked on in practice, and anytime you see special plays like that, look, we've got to see it multiple times. It's not like he's run it one time in practice and you feel good about it. So he caught three balls in practice, so I felt pretty good," Coach Mayo said.
The Patriots offense set season highs in total yards (382), play success rate (51%), and averaged a solid 5.2 yards per play. Obviously, the two turnovers were killers, and they're missing that clutch gene to pull off a fourth-quarter comeback with Maye under center. Still, Maye was dealing for most of the game, and AVP had some creative play-calling.
All of New England has to feel great about where Maye is trending in his rookie season.
2. Patriots Defense Gets McVay'ed by Rams Head Coach, Veteran Stars
Although the offense took a step forward, the Patriots defense took a major step back, failing to build on their best performance of the season last week in Chicago.
There was always a possibility that last week's win was more about the Bears, who fired their offensive coordinator after the loss to New England, than the Patriots. However, the Pats defense deserved their flowers for how they played in the windy city, while it was promising that star DT Christian Barmore and captain Kyle Dugger were returning this week.
That said, the momentum didn't carry over into Sunday's game. After a slow start, Los Angeles scored touchdowns on four of its next five drives and should've gotten a field goal before the half. Los Angeles's 7.88 yards per play were the seventh-most in an NFL game this season, while the Rams ranked in the 99th percentile in expected points added per play (+0.40). Once he recovered from some early missed throws, Rams QB Matthew Stafford was en fuego.
Speaking to Patriots players after the game, the Rams ran some "unscouted" plays. However, early on, Los Angeles was getting receivers open by using motion at the snap, a staple of the McVay offense, against New England's man coverage, which tested the Pats communication.
"Just communication. Communication versus the bunches and the levels they were giving us. They knew we were in a lot of man coverage, so they were switching it up. A lot of ugly bunches and things to make it difficult and they were [difficult]," safety Kyle Dugger said.
The other area where the Rams burned the Patriots when the defense blitzed Stafford. Stafford finished the game 12-17 for 217 yards and three scores when the Pats blitzed. From this perspective, it was an interesting choice to blitz the 36-year-old quarterback at a rate of 63%. Typically, you see that kind of strategy against a younger QB who doesn't make quick decisions, not a savvy veteran who has seen it all in 16 seasons.
The blitz-happy plan really burned the Patriots when Covington called a cover zero blitz on 2nd-and-9 from the LA 31, an aggressive call in that spot. Stafford beat the all-out pressure, which didn't get home, on an in-breaker over the middle to Kupp, who ran past a diving Jonathan Jones attempting to break the pass up for a 69-yard touchdown.
As a first-year play-caller, Covington went up against one of the NFL's best offensive minds this week. McVay is an elite schemer and an excellent play-caller. The hope is that Covington will learn from these experiences, but McVay and Stafford had the upper hand on Sunday.
3. QB Drake Maye and WR DeMario Douglas Explain Game-Ending Interception
Maye and the Patriots offense mostly gets high marks this week, but the rookie quarterback threw another late-game interception that ended New England's comeback bid on Sunday.
Speaking after the game, the Patriots were on the same page about what happened on the play, with Coach Mayo, Maye, and Douglas chalking it up to a miscommunication. The Pats QB1 had a more complete answer when asked about the game-ending turnover at the podium.
"It was a two-high look and Pop [DeMario Douglas]'s up the middle, and they're pretty good up front rushing five. I tried to kind of put it on them and kind of hit them over the linebacker, and Pop was thinking probably deep," Maye said. "At the end of the day, just got to be on the same page, and I think Pop did the right thing, I guess, got to just talk through more conversations. Just goes back to me during the week doing more, talking through different situations, hey, I may put this one on you versus let it rip. That's about it."
Maye identified the coverage correctly, as it was either cover six or a cover-two structure. Either way, that's considered a two-high look, as Maye said. With the linebacker dropping into the hole between the two safeties, it makes sense that Douglas split the safeties rather than sitting over the middle, and he was open if Maye had led him onto the other side of the linebacker. From this perspective, this one falls mainly on the QB.
There are so many overwhelmingly positive things about Maye's first six starts. He has that "it" factor, loads of talent, and is making some big-time plays. However, the Patriots rookie is now up to 14 turnover-worthy plays after two more on Sunday. It's the one thing holding him back.
4. DT Christian Barmore Plays 20 Snaps (39.2%) in Season Debut vs. Rams
First of all, it's an incredible feat by Barmore and the Patriots medical staff that the star defender was able to return this season after battling blood clots that popped up early in training camp.
Before we get to football, on a human level, that is awesome. On Sunday, Barmore opened up for the first time about his battle with blood clots after playing 20 snaps in his season debut.
"Blood clots is not a joke. I had real bad shortness of breath and it messed with me a lot. Mentally, I had my teammates, my medical team, and my guy Wally, who was with me every day, grinding with him. The days that I wanted to stop, he kept me going. Kept me strong," Barmore said. "My teammates really supported the hell out of me. I love them all, coaches and all. I told myself I wasn't going to lose that battle. I told myself that I was going to keep fighting."
As for the football, Barmore logged one quarterback pressure, drew five double-teams, and made three run tackles in his return. Although he didn't touch the quarterback, you could see his immediate impact when he was rushing on the interior and drawing blockers to free up his teammates. For example, Barmore created a free run at the quarterback for LB Christian Elliss on a stunt where Elliss logged a QB hit, leading to a third-down stop.
In all, Barmore played 13 passing downs compared to seven run plays, with six of his 20 snaps coming on third down. The Pats got him a little taste of all situations. Hopefully, Barmore's effectiveness and participation will only increase moving forward.
5. WR Kendrick Bourne Responds to Benching with Team-High 70 Yards and a TD
After being benched last week in Chicago, the veteran wideout was back in the mix as the third receiver in 11-personnel (35 snaps, 47.9%).
Although it wasn't totally consistent, the Patriots, for the most part, rotated their receivers based on their two primary personnel groupings. When they were in two-tight end sets, rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk and starting 'X' receiver Kayshon Boutte were on the field. When it was three-receiver sets, it was Boutte with Douglas (42 snaps) and Bourne. Bourne, who was benched for K.J. Osborn last week, got the nod over Osborn (inactive) and responded well.
The veteran wideout was sharper with his route-running this week. After having some issues with running the right routes, Bourne ran several routes settling into zone voids and converting vertical stems on the perimeter. Most notably, Bourne caught an 18-yard back shoulder fade that showed real growth between the QB and WR. In Week 9, Bourne ran a similar route where he wasn't on the same page as Maye, and the pass was nearly intercepted. This time, they hit it.
When he's on the field and mentally locked in, Bourne is one of the Patriots best receivers.
6. Patriots O-Line Allows a 47.8% Pressure Rate and 32% Rushing Success Rate vs. the Rams
Another major storyline coming into the game was the mismatch in the trenches between the Pats offensive line and an excellent Rams defensive front.
Los Angeles entered the week ranked second in team pressure rate (41%) and seventh in run-stopping win rate (33%). This was a huge mismatch on paper, tilting the game in Los Angeles's favor. Based on the metrics, LA's defense won the trenches battle, but it's worth noting that the pass protection wasn't so catastrophic that Maye couldn't operate.
For the first time this season, New England started the same offensive line combination in consecutive weeks: LT Vederian Lowe, LG Michael Jordan, C Ben Brown, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Trey Jacobs. The numbers suggest that Lowe and Jacobs allowed the most pressure, with six combined quick pressures allowed in under 2.5 seconds.
The Rams defense also caused a strip-sack in the second quarter, a major play in the game, subtracting -5.2 expected points from the offense, while setting up LA on the NE 12. On the very next play, Stafford threw a touchdown pass to Nacua to give the Rams the lead.
The strip-sack by Rams DT Braden Fiske came on a schemed pressure. This time, the Rams simulated pressure by putting five rushing threats on the line. One defender dropped out at the snap while Fiske and NT Kobie Turner ran a T/T stunt over the left side. The Pats had a half-slide on to the left, so they had the numbers, but Jordan and Brown didn't pass off the stunt properly, and Fiske hit Maye in 2.32 seconds for what's currently the fastest sack of Week 11.
You could argue that Maye must get the ball out on third down, which is what the Patriots rookie said post-game, but picking up post-snap line movement has been an issue all year for this group.
7. Patriots Don't Shadow Rams WRs with Christian Gonzalez on the Boundary
The final second guess for the defense from this one was the game plan decision to have Gonzalez play a side of the formation rather than shadowing a specific receiver in this matchup.
Based on their tendencies, it seems as though the Patriots only have Gonzo shadow when there is one obvious threat they want to eliminate from the game. When an opponent has multiple good receivers, Gonzalez stays on one side. Plus, that was the plan that worked last week against the Bears, so they probably figured if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
From that vantage point, the game plan was understandable. Kupp and Nacua are interchangeable receivers and equally dangerous. Still, it's fair to wonder why the coaches didn't stop the bleeding after Nacua went off in the first half (6-117-TD). Despite the Rams WR's big day, Gonzo only lined up over Nacua on one coverage snap. Nacua dominated whoever the Patriots put across from him on Sunday. Here were NextGen's nearest defender numbers: Marco Wilson (3/58), Anfernee Jennings (1/37), Jonathan Jones (1/12), Gonzalez (1/10), and Marcus Jones (1/6).
Nacua only had one catch in the second half, so you could argue the strategy settled in for the final two quarters. Kupp also had 69 of his 106 yards on one play, but Nacua's big first half got the Rams offense going while Los Angeles mostly stayed away from Gonzalez.
8. Pats Special Teams Inconstancies Loom Large in Loss to the Rams
Patriots kicker Joey Slyle had a rough warmup kicking into the closed end of the stadium. There was some swirling wind going in that direction, and Slye and Coach Mayo both said that played a factor in Mayo's decision to punt rather than attempt a 54-yard field goal going in that direction. Second, the blocked PAT was a huge play. After scoring to make it a nine-point game, it remained a two-score game because of the block. That's an added hurdle that this team isn't equipped to overcome in its present state.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
