Experts share their picks for the Patriots Week 4 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
Mike Reiss, ESPN:
Pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
The first thing Bill Belichick noted about the Dolphins in his midweek news conference was that they rank first in the NFL in average drive start (31.7 yard line) on kickoffs and are tied for second in the NFL with a plus-4 turnover differential. It sounds like he is expecting a field-position type of game in which a turnover could sway the outcome. I like the Patriots to bounce back after back-to-back losses.
Mike Golic, ESPN: Patriots
Seth Wickersham, ESPN: Patriots
Mina Kimes, ESPN: Patriots
Trey Wingo, ESPN: Patriots
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
Pick: Patriots 26, Dolphins 23
The Dolphins are flying high at 3-0, while New England is floundering. That's usually a bad spot for a road team coming to Foxboro. But this Dolphins team is playing outstanding defense and I think that continues against a depleted New England offense. Miami hangs around and could pull off the upset.
Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports: Patriots
Will Brinson, CBS Sports: Patriots
Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Patriots
Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Patriots
Elliot Harrison, NFL.com:
Pick: Patriots 30, Dolphins 23
Strongly contemplated picking the Dolphins in this all-important AFC East match. But it's challenging to go with Miami when that team has fared so poorly at Gillette over the years. Yes, the Dolphins have won a lot of games over Bill Belichick's group (one each in four of the past five seasons), but remember: almost all of those have come IN Miami. In fact, the Dolphins' last win at Foxborough came on Sept. 21, 2008, when Tony Sparano and Ronnie Brown's Wildcat special took over pro football -- and took down the divisional royalty. Since then, at Gillette Stadium, it's been almost all blowouts in the Pats' favor. If the script is to be different this time, Ryan Tannehill must be careful with the football (he has a TD-to-INT ratio of 7:2 thus far) and use his legs to extend drives. Keep Tom Brady off the field, like the Lions did in their win over New England last week.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk:
Pick: Dolphins 23, Patriots 17
This is one of those "forget about the uniforms and focus on who's wearing them" games. The Patriots have been physically overmatched, and it will continue at least until Julian Edelman returns. The spirit may be willing, but that's currently not good enough.
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk:
Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 21
If the Dolphins win this game, they're the undeniable favorites in the AFC East. Who saw that coming before the season? But I just don't think the Patriots are ready to give up the division throne just yet.
Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 16
Defense limits Miami's big plays and the losing streak ends.
Andy Hart, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 29, Dolphins 21
New England isn't playing all that well, but is due to turn it around a bit against the division rival. The Patriots have played worse than they are, while Miami has played better than they are. It balances out in this one.
Erik Scalavino, Patriots.com:
Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
New England has heard the murmurs all week and, after two weeks on the road, are ready to unleash some frustrations at home against division foe Miami. The Dolphins are going to make it close, though, and the Patriots might actually have to come from behind to win this one.
