Miami Gardens, FL — The Patriots are readying for a matchup with the division rival Dolphins, and the game-day rosters are set for Sunday's contest at Hard Rock Stadium.
New England's inactives are DT Jaquelin Roy (neck), DE Deatrich Wise (foot), WR KJ Osborn, G Tyrese Robinson, DE Titus Leo, and rookie Joe Milton is the emergency third quarterback. Miami's inactives are RB Jeffery Wilson, CB Ethan Bonner, CB Kendall Fuller, OLB Mohamed Kamara, C Andrew Meyer, TE Jack Stoll, and WR D'Wayne Eskridge.
Of their 10 questionable players, eight are officially active for the Patriots, including CB Christian Gonzalez (hip), DT Christian Barmore (not injury related - other), and S Kyle Dugger (ankle). S/LB Marte Mapu (neck) will also return after missing last Sunday's game vs. the Rams. Starting LT Vederian Lowe (shoulder) is active on offense, signaling the Patriots will start the same offensive line for the third consecutive game. After declining to activate OL Cole Strange (knee) from the PUP list on Saturday, New England's projected starting offensive line is LT Vederian Lowe, LG Michael Jordan, C Ben Brown, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Trey Jacobs.
Moving back to the defense, the coaching staff has a mostly healthy roster to slow down an explosive Dolphins offense on Sunday. The question is how will they match up against a dangerous Dolphins offense featuring star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Earlier this week, head coach Jerod Mayo hinted that it'll be more of a matchup game in the secondary rather than corners playing sides like last week.
"Those guys are blazers," Mayo said of Hill and Waddle. "We have some fast guys on defense, too, so this will probably be a little bit more of a matchup game."
"You look at last week, it was more about the size matchup. This week, it's about the speed matchup. We have guys in the locker room who have covered those guys relatively well, and we just have to continue to do that," Mayo continued.
The expectation is that one marquee matchup will be between Gonzalez and Hill, who have faced off twice since the Patriots drafted Gonzo in the first round in 2023. In Week 5, Gonzalez shadowed Hill on 21 of his 29 routes, with the Dolphins wideout catching three passes for 55 yards on six targets into Gonzalez's coverage. The second-year CB also had a pass breakup covering Hill in Week 5.
The Dolphins star was very complimentary of the Pats corner after games where Gonzalez mostly covered Hill in Week 5. Last month, Hill tweeted a photo of him and Gonzalez, saying, "This young corner is next up top 3 easily."
Although he has fared well against Hill in the past, Gonzalez was spotted with position coach Mike Pellegrino and team trainers testing his injured hip about three hours before game time. That's customary when players are true game-time decisions. If the injury limits him, Gonzalez might not be able to stick with Hill for the entire game, so that bears watching.
In all likelihood, Gonzalez, who has stuck to the boundary corner spot the last two weeks, will travel with Hill on Sunday. That means the Joneses duo and recently activated CB Alex Austin will cover Waddle. The Pats didn't shadow Waddle in the first matchup this season, with the other half of Miami's dynamic receiver duo lining up across from several defenders on the Patriots defense.
From this perspective, it makes the most sense for Marcus Jones to take Waddle in high-leverage situations. Jones is a sticky cover corner with the speed to run with Waddle, while he doesn't have to worry about a size disadvantage vs. the 5-foot-9 receiver. The elder Jones could then play a bulk of his snaps at safety, where he can help over the top of Hill and Waddle.
The last domino is how New England will match up against Miami's heavy personnel groupings. Under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins only have three receivers on the field for 37.2% of their offensive plays, 30th in the NFL. Instead, Miami bases its offense out of two-back or two-tight end groupings. The chess match then is do the Pats stay light to account for Miami's speed in nickel defense or go heavy themselves?
In Week 5, the Patriots played 79.7% of their defensive snaps in base defense. In base, New England allowed 5.1 yards per play and 4.8 yards per rush attempt with the Dolphins starting backup QB Tyler Huntley. Obviously, it's a different matchup this time with Tua Tagovailoa back as the Dolphins starter. Despite putting heavy personnel on the field, the Patriots defense still allowed 193 rushing yards in the first meeting.
This season, the Pats have been matching heavy offensive personnel with base defense, putting base defense on the field at the second-highest rate in the NFL (43.8%). However, New England has allowed the third-most yards per play out of base defense this season (6.3). The fear is that if the Pats match Miami in base defense, the Dolphins will throw into their heavier groupings like the Rams did last week. LA averaged 18.1 yards per pass play on 12 attempts vs. New England's base defense in Week 11.
The game within the game between McDaniel and Patriots defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington could decide who wins this contest on Sunday. The strategy that has Tagovailoa ranked dead-last in deep passing rate is matching speed-on-speed while playing a league-high rate of two-high safety shells vs. the Dolphins offense. Then, it becomes a run and underneath passing game, which teams can live with to keep the score down.
Lastly, Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye's supporting cast is set. As mentioned, New England is expected to start the same offensive line it did over the last two weeks. At the skill positions, here's a look at who Maye will distribute the ball to on Sunday afternoon.
OL - Lowe, Jordan, Brown, Onwenu, Jacobs
WR - Bourne, Douglas, Boutte, Polk, Baker
TE - Henry, Hooper, Bell, Westover
RB - Stevenson, Gibson, Hasty
The Patriots are attempting to win their first game at Hard Rock Stadium since the 2019 season, with Miami winning four straight games over New England in South Beach. Tagovailoa is also a perfect 6-0 in his career vs. the Patriots, setting up a game where the Pats are 7.5-point road underdogs. Although it's been a difficult place for the Patriots to play for decades, a win in Miami would be a massive boost early in the Maye-Mayo era.
The Dolphins will host the Patriots with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer