The old adage in the NFL is the season doesn't really begin until Thanksgiving. While that isn't entirely true, it is a time for the contenders to separate themselves from the pretenders, and that's what we'll attempt to do while preparing for Turkey Day.
Here's a breakdown of how things look as we head toward the stretch drive.
True title threats
Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia
The Lions have consistently been the best team in the league with a balanced offense that is equally comfortable playing physically as it is airing it out. Dan Campbell seems focused on getting over the hump after falling short in the NFC title game a year ago, and Detroit has to be considered the favorite at this point.
Kansas City has the pedigree that comes with back-to-back titles, but the Chiefs have not played well, particularly on offense, much of the season. Still, Andy Reid's team is 10-1 and no one wants any part of Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. The Bills and Eagles are both 9-2 and are very much worthy of Super Bowl consideration.
Capable of being Super
Baltimore, Green Bay, San Francisco
The Ravens are immensely talented, but the defense can't seem to find its way. It's hard to imagine a pass defense as porous as Baltimore's making the Super Bowl, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have been that good. The Packers defense has improved dramatically and assuming Jordan Love can stay healthy (it's been a trying season in that department) Green Bay can contend.
The Niners inclusion here likely raised some eyebrows and truth be told I don't believe this is their year. Injuries have crippled the team on both sides of the ball and at 5-6 and facing a daunting schedule, things look bleak in the Bay. But San Francisco is just a game back in the NFC West, and when healthy has as talented a roster as there is in the league. It's unlikely but the Niners will be dangerous if they get to the postseason with any degree of health.
Playoff worthy
Pittsburgh, Houston, Minnesota, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers
All of these teams have experienced success and are worthy of playoff discussion, but don't appear to be threats to do much damage in the postseason. The Vikings at 9-2 have exceeded expectations with Sam Darnold running the show, and Pittsburgh is trending up since Russell Wilson took over.
Houston, Denver and the Chargers also show flashes of competence but not consistently enough to be taken seriously in January. The Broncos defense is elite, and rookie Bo Nix is improving by the week, but Sean Payton's team still looks to be a year or so away. C.J. Stroud hasn't been as sharp in Year 2 as he was as a rookie, but Justin Herbert looks to be on the rise as he gets comfortable playing for Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers will be worth watching down the stretch.
Playoffs by default
Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, Los Angeles Rams, Miami, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay
Obviously, not all of these teams will make the postseason, but each has a shot due to either league-wide mediocrity or a subpar division. The Falcons are the most disappointing team of this group. Kirk Cousins looked to be rounding into form but now Atlanta is fighting to hold off Tampa Bay.
The three NFC West teams are battling with San Francisco for the division, and all are separated by a single game. It's possible that the runner-up could grab a wild card as well. Aside from the Niners, none has the roster to make a run.
Miami and Cincinnati had terrible starts to the season but are healthier and have enough offense to beat anyone. The Bengals might have too deep of a hole to climb out of, but Miami could squeak in with continued solid play from Tua Tagovailoa, although the Dolphins don't look like a team ready to win on the road in the playoffs.
Frisky outsiders
Indianapolis, Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland
The Colts are the only team in this group that is still within reach of a playoff spot, but Indy is trending in the wrong direction after losing four of five. The rest will be content with making life difficult on opponents, as the Bears did the last two weeks against the Packers and Vikings.
New Orleans, Dallas, Tennessee and Cleveland are all coming off wins over potential playoff teams and look to be engaged despite their disappointing records. The Cowboys are obviously in a different spot than the others after losing Dak Prescott for the season, but this group as a whole would be content continuing the recent trend of being tough to play against.
And the rest …
New England, New York Jets, New York Giants, Las Vegas, Carolina, Jacksonville
The Panthers are the lone team in this tier that is trending up after having their two-game winning streak snapped on a last-second field goal by the Chiefs. Bryce Young has played better since returning to the starting lineup a month ago, and Carolina is competing. The Patriots looked to be on a similar path after beating the Bears and losing a tight one to the Rams, but Miami easily put an end to that stretch.
The New York teams are in disarray, and the Raiders and Jags are right there with them. Coaching changes could be on the way for all four.
Week 12 takeaways
Just an incredible fourth quarter of action in Washington as the Cowboys posted a huge road upset over the Commanders. Dallas led, 10-9, headed to the final quarter when suddenly both teams exploded for 41 points in the Cowboys 34-26 win.
Kavontae Turpin's 99-yard kickoff return gave Dallas a seemingly comfortable 27-17 lead with 2:49 left, but Jayden Daniels kept Washington alive. He led a field goal drive, then got the ball back at his 14 with 30 seconds left and no timeouts. He needed just one play to hit Terry McLaurin deep down the right sideline and the receiver did the rest, taking it the distance to make it 27-26. But Austin Seibert missed the PAT, forcing an onside kick.
Rather than simply falling on it, Dallas' Juanyeh Thomas decided to run it back for a touchdown, making the score 34-26. Despite the return, all the touchdown did was extend the game, giving Daniels the ball back down 8 with time for another couple of plays. Had Thomas just dropped to the turf with the ball, the game would have been over with one simple kneel down. Instead, the Cowboys needed to defend a Hail Mary to ensure victory.
Fortunately for Thomas, the defense came through. But after watching the Commanders score once from 86 yards away in the closing seconds, it wasn't exactly a wise choice to return the onside kick for a touchdown. …
There's definitely something wrong in Houston as the Texans do not look nearly as sharp as they did last year, or even earlier this season. C.J. Stroud has been harassed much of the season due to poor pass protection and his accuracy seems to be affected by the pressure.
The Texans dropped a 32-27 decision to the Titans on Sunday while being carved up by Will Levis. Levis, who was part of Stroud's quarterback draft class a year ago, completed 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns and a pick despite being sacked eight times. At 7-5, Houston is still in control of the AFC South, but the Texans no longer look like a threat in the AFC. …
After a tumultuous start to the season, the Eagles look to have settled in thanks to a punishing style that wears on opponents. Philly has often started slow in recent weeks but once the second half rolls around they're typically tough to stop. That was the case Sunday night as 24 of the Eagles 37 points came after the break, mostly thanks to the running of Saquan Barkley.
Barkley ripped off touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards while racking up 255 for the game behind the big, physical Eagles front. It's a style that should play well in January when the weather figures to deteriorate, and one that many opponents have had a hard time dealing with as the game wears on.
Power 5
1. Detroit (10-1) – Not the Lions best effort in Indy but still an easy 24-6 win.
2. Buffalo (9-2) – The Bills enjoyed the bye week as they prepared for a couple of tests down the stretch.
3. Kansas City (10-1) – The Chiefs offense got in gear in Carolina, but the defense struggled.
4. Philadelphia (9-2) – The Eagles physical style is tough to deal with.
5. Baltimore (8-4) – Ravens are still searching for consistency but have the talent to contend.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
