The Patriots are heading into the bye week with a 3-10 record, which is obviously not where they want to be in head coach Jerod Mayo's first season.
This season, the advanced metrics aren't friendly to New England. That's not surprising given that the Pats currently hold the fourth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. According to Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric, New England ranks dead-last in team DVOA (-36.0%), 31st on offense, 31st on defense, and a more respectable 13th on special teams. As for expected points added, as the chart above shows, the Pats are slightly better (26th on offense, 29th on defense).
Although those rankings must improve, the Patriots offense has improved with rookie QB Drake Maye. Along with averaging 19.1 points with Maye as the starter, nearly a full touchdown more than the first five weeks, New England's passing offense has improved. The Pats have a +5.3% DVOA, 23rd in the NFL, with Maye. In the first five weeks, they ranked 30th at -27%, per Schatz's metric found on FTN Fantasy.
Furthermore, Maye is 14th among 32 qualified quarterbacks in ESPN's QBR metric with the 32nd-ranked pass-blocking win rate and a rebuilding group of pass-catchers (58.0). Based on QBR, the Pats should be winning over half their games with the level of quarterback play Maye provides them, so why are they 1-6 in full games the third-overall pick has started?
Although there are multiple factors, there's also the other side of the ball. Since Week 6, the Patriots defense is 32nd in DVOA at +20.1%, a noticeable drop-off from the first five games (+12.4%). The eye test tells you he's not getting enough help, and the stats say Maye isn't getting enough help; until that changes, the Patriots record will remain the same.
Here's a statistical deep-dive into the Patriots at the bye after 13 weeks.
1. QB Drake Maye Among League's Best in the Short Game and Scramble Mode
Statistically, Maye has elevated the Patriots offense in several ways since taking over as the starter.
The concern with Maye's college film was that his accuracy was too inconsistent to be a precise short passer. Well, eight starts into his NFL career, that's precisely how Maye is winning in an offense that needs to play that way. Due to personnel limitations, New England isn't built to feature Maye's high-end deep passing ability yet. Right now, Maye and OC Alex Van Pelt must scheme around a shaky offensive line and a skill group that lacks an impactful vertical threat. As a result, the Pats rookie QB is 25th among 35 quarterbacks in air yards per pass attempt (7.5).
To his credit, Maye has made strides to improve his short game to become an efficient underneath passer. Since Week 6, Maye leads the NFL with 77 positive EPA completions on throws under 10 air yards. He's also eighth in drop-back success rate (61.1%) and eighth in completion percentage over expectation (+3.9%). By operating well in the short passing game, the Pats are allowing a more respectable 38.5% pressure rate with Maye compared to 47.3% with veteran Jacoby Brissett under center while finding ways to move the ball through the air without throwing deep. Once they get a true field-stretcher, there's zero doubt Maye can hit those throws, too.
The other area where Maye is adding yards above expectation is on scrambles. The Pats QB1 is, by the numbers, the best scrambling quarterback in the NFL since becoming the starter: first in scramble yards (335), first in total EPA on scrambles (+28.0), and first among quarterbacks in rushing yards over expectation on scrambles (+125).
As we'll explain next, Maye's playing style has changed how opponents defend the Patriots offense.
2. QB Drake Maye is Changing How Opponents Defend the Pats Offense
When Brissett was starting, a blueprint began to form on how to defend the Patriots offense with the veteran quarterback at the helm.
In the first five weeks, opposing defenses were playing a single-high safety structure vs. the Patriots at the third-highest rate in the NFL (48.5%). Defenses play single-high shells for several reasons, but the main one is to have an extra defender load the box to stop the run or blitz the quarterback. The vulnerability to single-high coverages is that there's only one deep safety, typically in the middle of the field, protecting the deep part of the field. But, if there's no threat of the deep passing game, it mitigates the risk of playing that style of defense.
Furthermore, New England was facing the fourth-highest rate of man coverage when Brissett was at quarterback (38.4%): stack the box to take away the run, challenge the Pats receivers to win vs. man coverage, and make Brissett beat you under pressure. Due to Maye's arm talent and mobility, defenses have had to adjust to the rookie quarterback.
Since Week 6, opposing defenses have played a single-high safety structure on 43.9% of the Patriots offensive plays (12th in the NFL). Although the rookie has only completed six of his 21 deep pass attempts, Maye's mobility seems to have forced defenses to play less man coverage. Maye is facing a 26.8% man coverage rate, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL, and a nearly 12% decrease from the first five games.
Last Sunday, the Colts defense found out the hard way how Maye's scrambling ability can make the defense pay for playing man coverage. Above, Indy plays man-to-man with a single-high safety. The Colts have a low robber who is likely doubling as a spy, but when the Pats run a drive concept with crossers at two different levels, the robber follows the receivers. Indy's four-man pass rush then fails to keep Maye in the pocket, and he registers a top speed of 19.4 MPH on a 41-yard scramble with the coverage defenders' backs to the quarterback downfield.
The answer to combat Maye's mobility is more zone coverage, inviting more split-safety shells to mix in different zone schemes (cover-2, quarters) while opening the underneath passing game where the Patriots rookie quarterback has thrived taking profits underneath soft zones.
It'll be interesting to see how the game plan versus Maye evolves because the third-overall pick is already figuring out how to beat the current book on how to defend him.
3. CB Christian Gonzalez is Making a Strong Case for Post-Season Awards
The other recent draft pick that's a budding star for the Patriots defense is second-year CB Christian Gonzalez, the 17th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft by New England.
To tell the whole story with Gonzo, one must mention that the Patriots play the second-highest rate of man coverage in the league (44%). They often trust their corners to cover on an island, and they'll have Gonzalez shadow the other team's best receivers. In other words, Gonzalez has one of the toughest jobs of any corner in the NFL.
Despite drawing challenging assignments every week, Gonzalez ranks an impressive eighth in expected points added per target (-0.18) and has an above-average rate of forcing tight-window throws (25%, 15th among qualified corners). He has also allowed only one deep completion all season into his coverage. Some standout performances for Gonzalez this season are allowing three catches for 15 yards while covering Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase on 20 routes and a total of four catches for 65 yards in two matchups shadowing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (39 combined routes).
Gonzalez deserves consideration from voters for Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors this season.
4. Patriots Offense Incorporating More Motion the Second Half of the Season
One talking point surrounding the Patriots scheme under offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is how often the offense is or isn't incorporating motion into their play designs.
Motion, as referred to here, is when an offensive player shifts before the snap to relocate to a different spot in the formation or motions at the snap (example: jet motion). Offenses use motion to undress the coverage, create space and blocking angles in the defense, or act as eye candy or a decoy. To further explain undressing the coverage, the defense must tip its hand when a player comes in motion. For example, if a defender follows the motion man, it's most likely man coverage.
This season, teams average nearly identical yardage when they motion (5.5 yards) compared to when they don't motion (5.6). It's possible that means defenses are catching up on how to handle motion, but historically, plays with motion produce more yards than plays without motion. The top offenses in motion rate are also considered the hardest offenses to defend in the NFL: Rams, Dolphins, 49ers, Packers, Lions, Bills, Chiefs.
The Patriots rank 13th in overall motion rate, including shifts (66.2%), but are only 26th in motion at the snap rate (27.1%). However, their motion rate has increased over the last three weeks, with a 71.9% motion rate and a 30.6% motion at the snap rate. Last week, they used motion 20 times to stress the Colts zone coverage defense. One possibility as to why the Pats are slowly incorporating motion is that they have a first-year quarterback. The quarterback's responsible for controlling the motions pre-snap so that they're legal and timed up to the snap, so maybe the coaching staff didn't want to put too much on Maye's plate too soon.
Hopefully, the motion that led to several successful plays for the Patriots offense against the Colts continues for an offense that needs any scheme-aided help it can get.
5. Patriots Offense Majoring in Two-Tight End Sets, Getting Good Production From TEs
Another core philosophy in the Van Pelt offense is that the Patriots are majoring in two-tight end sets, mainly featuring veteran tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. New England ranks sixth in 12-personnel usage (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) at 31.3% percent. As a position group, the Pats tight ends rank fourth in the league with 90 catches for 948 yards. Individually, Henry ranks fourth among tight ends with 58 catches and 610 receiving yards.
The Patriots can create matchups for Henry and Hooper on linebackers and safeties by playing two tight ends at once. On his 16-yard touchdown catch last week, the 12-personnel grouping gets Hooper matched up in man coverage on Colts LB Zaire Franklin with Indy in base defense. Hooper creates separation on the sail route in the flood concept, elevating to high-point the ball in the air. This season, New England's tight ends have been productive targets in the passing game.
6. RB Antonio Gibson a Standout in Advanced Rushing Metrics
In the running game, the Patriots offense ranks dead-last in rush DVOA with the 31st-ranked offensive line in run-blocking win rate, and that's even with Maye's production.
As always, the run game's success is mainly predicated on the blocking and scheme. If the offensive line struggles to run block, the ball carriers will struggle as well. For example, many pundits are lobbying for Eagles RB Saquon Barkley to be the NFL's MVP. Barkley is fantastic, but he's also running behind an O-Line that ranks seventh in run-blocking win rate.
For the Patriots, free-agent addition Antonio Gibson has been a bright spot on the ground. Among 46 qualified running backs, Gibson ranks third in averaging rushing yards after contact (4.3) and seventh in rushing yards over expectation per carry (1.0). In Week 13, Gibson's 11-yard touchdown run had a 1.7% chance of being a touchdown with 10.7 yards after contact.
New England has a lead-back in Rhamondre Stevenson, but the coaching staff might want to give Gibson more touches down the stretch.
7. Patriots Offensive Line a Clear Area of Needed Improvement This Offseason
Although it isn't all bad like the Patriots record would suggest, we must discuss why New England sits at 3-10 heading into their week off.
Offensively, the main reason the Patriots have struggled is their issues in pass protection. New England ranks dead-last in pass-blocking win rate (50%) and 31st in pressure rate allowed (41.4%). Maye has helped manage the pressure on the quarterback, but the numbers are still too high with the rookie under center. Along with failing to execute blocks, the Pats have allowed the fourth-highest unblocked pressure rate (8.6%), meaning defenders are coming through the line of scrimmage unblocked.
Given the blocking struggles in the run and pass game, it stands to reason that upgrading the offensive line will be at the top of personnel chief Eliot Wolf's offseason to-do list.
8. Bolstering the Pass Rush is Another Big Offseason Need for the Pats
The old cliche is that football games are won in the trenches, which is true. Unfortunately, the Patriots have issues on both sides of the ball in the trenches, which is a primary reason New England is 3-10.
On defense, the Patriots currently rank 27th in overall pressure rate (30.3%). More specifically, the Pats are 31st in the NFL with a pressure rate of 25.1% when they only rush four. Their pressure rate when they blitz five or more is 41.4%, but it's only 24.1% when they don't blitz. That blitz vs. no blitz split is the seventh-highest differential in the NFL. That's a key stat because the need to blitz exposes the secondary by taking defenders out of coverage.
The Patriots have also been mostly unsuccessful in scheming up pressure this season. New England has a 6.1% unblocked pressure rate in 2024, 22nd in the NFL, a steep drop-off from leading the NFL in unblocked pressure rate in 2023 (9.8%). The Pats aren't using as many creeper pressures, where a typical pass-rusher drops into coverage while an unexpected defender blitzes, typically from the back seven this season (5.3% to 3.8%). But they have doubled their simulated pressure rate when the defense lines up more than four rushers to simulate an all-out blitz and then forms a four-man rush from there (0.6% to 1.6%).
This offseason, the Patriots should consider adding pass-rushers while the coaching staff must figure out why their schemed rushes aren't getting home as often.
9. Patriots Playing More Base Defenses This Season
The last defensive tendency that hasn't necessarily produced great results is using base personnel at a much higher rate this season.
New England is in base defense on 40.7% of their defensive snaps, second-most in the NFL. The Pats have countered heavy personnel groupings with heavy personnel of their own all year. Plus, they've struggled to stop the run out of nickel defense, allowing +0.10 EPA per rush with five defensive backs (29th in the NFL). It also hasn't helped that hybrid S Jabrill Peppers, LB Ja'Whaun Bentley, and DT Christian Barmore have missed most of the season, three of their best run defenders who allow them to play lighter personnel groupings on defense.
There are reasons for playing so much base defense, but the result is allowing 6.3 yards per play in base defense (30th in the NFL). Playing more base defense has forced the Pats linebackers into difficult coverage assignments, and opposing quarterbacks have a 110.9 passer rating (27th) and 9.0 yards per target (30th) when targeting New England's linebackers.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
