The Patriots will be riding up and down Broadway to face the Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on Sunday, looking for their first winning streak of the head coach Jerod Mayo era.
Coach Mayo's team hopes to make it two straight victories by building on last week's win over the Jets. Tennessee is currently one spot ahead of New England in the 2025 draft order at 1-6. The Titans are in a similar spot as the Patriots under first-year head coach Brian Callahan. With Coach Mayo being the second-youngest coach, Callahan, age 40, is the sixth-youngest head coach in the NFL. Callahan was hired to replace Patriots legend Mike Vrabel.
Callahan became a hot commodity by coordinating the Bengals offense over the last five seasons. He had a hand in developing star QB Joe Burrow while the Bengals offense stayed afloat in a 9-8 campaign despite Burrow playing just ten games in 2023. Cincinnati went 4-3 with backup quarterback Jake Browning last season. Furthermore, Callahan is a coaching legacy, with his father, Bill, being a coaching legend.
Along with two different stints as a head coach, the elder Callahan is one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history. We're proudly Dante Scarnecchia stans here. But young Callahan hired his father away from the Browns to coach the Titans offensive line, with the pairing chiefly responsible for the Tennessee offense.
"When I look at [the Titans], it's a team that's really in a similar situation as us. They have good players. They have a good scheme. They just haven't been able to put it together as far as a record is concerned," Coach Mayo said this week.
From a team-building perspective, these two teams have been competing for players recently. Both teams wanted to sign prized free-agent WR Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins over the last two offseasons. The Titans landed Hopkins and Ridley, RB Tony Pollard, C Lloyd Cushenberry, and CB Chidobe Awuzie on lucrative free-agent deals while trading for former Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed. Tennessee handed out the third-most money to free agents this past offseason, but it hasn't panned out.
Last week, the Titans traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. Sneed is hurt, and they've struggled to get Ridley going, serving as a cautionary tale about building your roster through free agency and trades. We would've applauded the Patriots for signing Hopkins or Ridley, so it's a bit of revisionist history to say they were bad moves in hindsight. Still, maybe we shouldn't go as crazy over splashes in the offseason as we do.
Now that you're all caught up on the Titans, let's dig into the matchups on both sides of the ball in Sunday's showdown down in Tennessee.
Patriots Offense vs. Titans Defense: Tricky Scheme a Legit Test for Pats O
There are a few layers to unpack before we get into the nitty gritty details in Sunday's chess match between offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and Titans DC Dennard Wilson.
First, the Patriots have some uncertainty at quarterback, with rookie QB Drake Maye in the league's concussion protocol. Maye clearing the protocol in time to play on Sunday is a long-shot, which means it'll likely be veteran Jacoby Brissett under center. Obviously, that'll change Van Pelt's call sheet, but Brissett played well against the Jets last week.
Along with likely being without Maye, don't let the Titans allowing 52 points to the Lions fool you – it was a wonky 52 points. Detroit had a 90-yard punt return touchdown, a 64-yard punt return, and a 72-yard kickoff return that led to another touchdown on a short field. Plus, the Titans offense turned the ball over four times. Here was the starting field position on five of the Lions six scoring drives: TEN 23, TEN 25, TEN 12, TEN 22, TEN 26 – five drives that began inside their own 26-yard line.
Although they're 29th in scoring defense, the Titans defense is quite good statistically. Tennessee is ninth in total DVOA, 12th against the pass, and seventh vs. the run. They're also challenging to figure out schematically. When you watch their film, it's hard to identify the coverage. From that standpoint, it would be nice to see how the Pats rookie quarterback would do against a true spin-the-dial defense. That's not meant as shade toward Brissett, but Maye hasn't faced an exotic defense like this one.
Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was most recently Baltimore's defensive backs coach, and you see some Ravens flavoring with this Tennessee scheme. The Titans major in simulated pressures (3.2%, highest in NFL) and creeper schemes (6.5%, fourth-highest) while also playing the fourth-highest rate of cover zero (8.3%). The Titans are just 18th in team pressure rate but can come after QBs in tricky ways.
"They're a little bit unpredictable as far as the play calling on the defensive side of the ball, which is a huge challenge for us. As I always say, we have to be able to see the same picture through the same set of goggles," Coach Mayo said.
On early downs, the Titans run creeper schemes. Creepers are when the defense blitzes standard coverage players while typical pass-rushers drop into coverage. Above, two players drop out over the right side of the offensive line with a wild safety rotation. Amani Hooker drops all the way from the first level to the middle of the field. The Lions block the pressure initially, but the rotation forces QB Jared Goff to hold the ball, and he takes a sack.
Then, the Titans will get into their simulated pressures on third downs. Sim pressures are when the defense shows all-out pressure to stress the protection but drops defenders out to form a standard four-man rush. In this clip, the Titans have six potential rushers near the line of scrimmage, but two of them drop into coverage. The scheme gets a one-on-one for star DT Jeffery Simmons on the left guard, and Simmons wins for a sack.
The Titans defense is no joke. Now that we've established that, the obvious question is how do the Patriots attack Wilsons's exotic schemes? Here are a few potential answers for New England.
First, if you want to run the ball on Sunday, you better run away from Simmons and 366-pound NT T'Vondre Sweat. The Titans DTs have anchored the best interior run defense in the NFL, allowing 3.1 yards per carry on runs between the tackles. However, Tennessee's run defense can be had on the edges, where they're allowing 5.2 yards per rush (19th). Things like toss schemes into the alley have proven to be effective.
In the passing game, it's about finding matchups and giving the quarterback as many pre-snap indicators as possible to decipher coverages. For example, the Lions used motion at the snap several times to get the better of the Titans defense last week. In this clip, Tennessee is in one of their third-down simulated pressures. Detroit motions WR Kalif Raymond at the snap to get him a head start into the route while the man coverage declares to Goff. The free release helped Raymond get open, and the Lions beat the blitz.
After failing to effectively chase the motion across the field, the Titans began passing motion off in the backend. Detroit's counter was to use "return" motion in the red zone. Return motion is when the receiver fakes like he's going across the formation and then returns to the same side he came from. When the defense passes it off, expecting the motion man to come out the other side, they're out of position when Raymond returns to the same side.
The other way teams have been successful is by using empty formations. By spreading out the defense, it's easier for the quarterback to see the defensive structure. Plus, the Titans are mostly a nickel defense, meaning there will be a linebacker or two to pick on. Above, the Jets get RB Breece Hall flexed outside on a vertical route vs. a linebacker, while the Colts also got WR Josh Downs open vs. linebackers multiple times.
On the surface, the Titans defense doesn't look all that scary. They're 29th in scoring defense, 24th in red zone defense, and are coming off a game where they allowed 52 points. However, this is a real test for a Patriots offense that has improved in recent weeks.
Patriots Defense vs. Titans Offense: A Chance for the Pats Defense to Get Right?
At this point, it would be shortsighted for the Patriots defense to take any opponent lightly when they're trying to get their own house in order.
New England's defense, which ranks 30th in total DVOA, was better vs. the Jets. By simplifying things schematically in the run game and with a 48.3%, their second-highest in a game this season, the Patriots put some good stuff on film, even if the numbers don't necessarily back it up. The Jets finished in the 81st percentile in EPA (+0.18) and even higher with a 50% play success rate in the Pats Week 8 win (85th percentile).
Still, the Patriots defense pushed back a bit in the run game, especially on inside runs, where the Jets averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. The Pats were also stingy when they played man coverage (5-for-13 for 67 yards). Overall, it was a formula you can get behind for this group moving forward, leaning on a solid secondary led by top CB Christian Gonzalez and returning to some Belichick-era front mechanics to stop the run.
This week's matchup feels like an opportunity for this unit to truly get right. While using last week as a springboard, Tennessee's offense resembles some of the 2022-23 opponents where the Patriots defense feasted on backup quarterbacks and uninspiring offenses. Despite hiring Callahan as an offensive-minded head coach, the Titans are 30th in total DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA this season. They're also 30th in pass-blocking win rate along their offensive line and play a pretty straight-up brand of football that the Bengals are also known for, but the difference is that the Titans don't have Burrow, Chase, Higgins, etc.
2024 Season | Will Levis | Mason Rudolph |
---|---|---|
EPA/Play | -0.22 | -0.2 |
Pass Avg. | 5.6 | 6.1 |
Avg. Target Depth | 8.3 | 6.9 |
TO Worthy Play % | 4.4% | 3.5% |
Regardless of the quarterback, the Titans offense's numbers are relatively the same, whether it's Will Levis (shoulder injury) or backup Mason Rudolph. From an effectiveness standpoint, the Titans offense is near the bottom of the league with either quarterback. In fact, their expected points added per play production is nearly identical. The main differences is that Levis throws down the field more, while Rudolph is slightly better at avoiding turnover-worthy plays.
Tennessee runs most of its offense out of 11 personnel, with 67.6% of its plays featuring three wide receivers. They'll run some two-tight end sets on early downs and are pretty balanced in terms of shotgun vs. under-center usage. Plus, they'll feature some pistol formations as well. But they don't motion much (54.8%, 24th) despite being an outside zone-bootleg early-down scheme that likes running to the formation's weak side.
The Titans like to run outside zone weak, meaning they're running away from the tight end, at a rate of 48.1% (second-highest in NFL). Then, they'll sequence a 25.9% play-action rate off those outside zone runs, giving them a similar feel to the elder Callahan's Browns offenses.
In the drop-back passing game, Calvin Ridley is the receiver who can make plays against man coverage, assuming that's what the Patriots lean on against this week. Although he's been off to a slower start, he had ten catches for 143 yards in last week's loss to the Lions. Ridley caught two fades for 73 yards, both from the slot. Once he establishes the vertical threat, he will break off slants at the first two levels.
The other man-beater the Titans used against the Lions, who played 24 drop-backs in man coverage, is splitting RB Tony Pollard out wide to hunt matchups. Pollard is second on the team with 21 catches this season, with one catch each on a go route, hitch, and a slant from the perimeter. Above, the Titans run a pick play for Pollard that gains solid yardage.
Without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans playmakers are limited to their two free-agent additions last offseason, Ridley and Pollard. If the Patriots defense can force Tennessee to beat them with their other receivers, New England should be able to limit this Titans offense.
Key Matchups
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Titans WR Calvin Ridley
After missing out on Ridley in free agency, it would be nice for the Patriots to keep the Titans wideout down in this one. If not, it'll be a week about how they struck out on a stud receiver. Gonzo performed very well against Davante Adams last week, allowing just one catch for 16 yards with an iffy DPI on 23 routes vs. the Jets WR. Ridley is at his best in the slot and on the vertical route tree. He has accounted for 47.7% of the Titans air yards, the highest air yards share in the NFL. The Patriots No. 0 must eliminate big plays by the Titans No. 0.
Patriots Interior O-Line vs. Titans DT Jeffery Simmons
Simmons is elite. He has 11 pressures and a team-high 13 run stops despite missing a game. He mainly rushes over guards as either a three or four-technique on the interior, but the Titans will occasionally line him up over the center if they like the matchup, which they might vs. Patriots backup C Ben Brown. Simmons is a hard-charging bully who plays with excellent power and great pad level, allowing him to knife into gaps. He also likes to use a push-pull technique to shed blocks. New England must pay extra attention to Simmons, or he will take over the game.
RT Trey Jacobs vs. Titans EDGE Harold Landry III
Jacobs has played adequately over the last two games, but this matchup with Landry is scary. Landry's calling card is his explosive first step, closing burst, and ability to bend the corner. Although he's been serviceable, Jacobs's biggest weakness is that he's slower getting out of his stance and is prone to playing with a short corner. You can't do that against Landry, who quickly gets around the edge as the team leader in sacks (4) and quarterback pressures (14).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer