The Patriots are heading across the pond for an international showcase against the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London, England on Sunday.
Although it's only his second career start, and the Patriots are still 5.5-point underdogs to the Jags, this is a good spot for rookie QB Drake Maye to build some confidence. Maye had some great moments in last week's loss to the Texans. Based on my charting, he had 12 "plus" plays, flashing the ability to attack man coverage while making nuanced plays on full-field progressions, off-script playmaking, and coverage manipulations.
The next step for Maye is to be more consistent with his downfield ball placement and adjust to how defenses choose to defend him. Starting with his accuracy, Maye spraying throws to the first two levels is nothing new. He struggled with it at North Carolina, and it showed up on his film vs. Houston. From this perspective, it's mostly mechanical, as Maye has too many moving parts with his footwork and throwing motion to be consistently accurate, which wasn't going to be fixed overnight.
Despite having a handful of errant throws, Maye still made the Texans pay with six completions for 110 yards and two touchdowns against man coverage. He connected on two explosive touchdowns of 40 and 35 yards and added another 17-yard completion. Maye also had Douglas on two other occasions on crossing patterns. Plus, Maye is a threat to scramble if he goes unaccounted for by man defenses.
In the first five weeks, the Patriots were seeing a single-high safety defense at the third-highest rate in the NFL (48.5%) and the highest rate of cover-one (man) in the league (35.5%). It's now on film that it's dangerous to play man coverage against the Pats new QB, so what will defenses do? Maybe it's premature for defenses to start altering game plans for a rookie quarterback in his second career start, but from this perspective, you're playing into Maye's hands if you don't.
That brings us to this week's matchup against a Jaguars defense that's ripe for the taking for the third-overall pick. The Jags are allowing 29.7 points per game (31st), are dead-last in DVOA, 32nd in EPA per pass, 30th in team pressure rate, and struggle both against play-action concepts and mobile quarterbacks: does that sound advantageous for a young QB?
Jacksonville defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is a disciple of Saints head coach Dennis Allen. Allen is known for being a 4-3 guru, and the Jags are following suit as a four-man rush team that relies on early-round draft picks Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker on the edge to generate pressure. Nielsen doesn't dial up pressure much with the second-lowest blitz rate in the NFL (17.8%), and the Jags lead the league in cover two zone usage (28.9%).
My question is whether the Jaguars will ditch the man-blitzes that Maye exposed and force him into his short game. That's what I would do against the Pats rookie. Don't make it easy on him by allowing him to attack single coverage. Instead, force him to be consistently accurate to the first two levels throwing into zone windows.
If the Jaguars, who already play a league-high rate of cover two zone, decide to test Maye with zone coverages, the Bears and first-overall pick Caleb Williams gave the Pats some answers. Last week, Williams led the Bears to a 35-16 victory across the pond, with Williams completing 13 of his 17 passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns into zone structures. Caleb was particularly dynamic against cover two, completing 9-of-11 passes for 114 yards and a score.
The play designs Chicago used to pick on the Jaguars cover two schemes were high-lowing the short zone defenders and attacking Tampa-2 linebackers between the split safeties. Starting with the high-low concept above, the Bears put the weak hook defender in conflict (No. 51) with a sit and an in-cut wrapping around the short route. Jags linebacker Ventrell Miller can either stay connected to the short route or drop underneath the in-breaker, but he can't cover both routes. Williams reads Miller's zone drop and throws an explosive to WR Rome Odunze.
Another way the Bears attacked cover two was by running receivers up the shoot between the deep safeties. Usually, the Jags will use a linebacker-type to carry the No. 3 receiver if he runs a vertical in a Tampa-2 structure. This time, WR Keenan Allen runs the stick-nod route, and Williams makes an excellent back-shoulder pass to throw Allen open in the end zone for six.
Although the Jaguars major in cover two, they also play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (40.5%): expect a lot of cover two and cover one from this defense. When the Jags played man, Williams beat them by throwing in-breakers and using his mobility.
Here, Chicago runs double digs off play-action. The Jags answer with man-free, meaning it's man-to-man with a deep safety but no underneath help. Williams chooses between the two in-breaking routes over the middle and connects with Odunze for a first-down completion.
Lastly, the Jaguars defense allows +0.80 expected points added per quarterback scramble (28th in the NFL). The Jags have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, a byproduct of using a four-man rush. Williams had two scrambles for 42 yards last week, including the 23-yarder above against a one-cross scheme where the free defender is passing off the downfield routes rather than having eyes on the quarterback.
At 1-5, the Patriots aren't in a position to take any opponent lightly. Still, it would be disappointing if the Pats offense doesn't have some success against Jacksonville. The Jags are the worst pass defense in the NFL by DVOA, EPA, and average passing yards allowed (276.7). Plus, a rookie quarterback just gave Maye a blueprint of how to attack the Jags defense.
Again, the Patriots aren't in a position to be overconfident. But it's hard not to like this matchup, especially after the third-overall pick made plays against a much better defense last week.
Patriots Defense vs. Jaguars Offense: Will Repeat Plays Haunt New England?
Moving over to the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense is trying to find its footing with injuries and other factors leading to a steep statistical regression this season.
After six weeks, New England ranks 29th in DVOA on defense, which is hard to believe. The Pats defense was supposed to be the team's strength, with several returning veterans, two promising second-year defenders (Gonzalez, White), and head coach Jerod Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington providing scheme stability. Instead, the Patriots have lost star DT Christian Barmore (blood clots), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (shoulder), and S Jabrill Peppers (off-field) after trading pass-rusher Matthew Judon over the summer.
Although they've been able to weather personnel losses in the past, the Patriots haven't been as resourceful this season. Now, they'll face a Jags offense that is also underperforming. Despite having talent on paper, franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence and company are 20th in total DVOA and 22nd in scoring offense (18.8). Lawrence has playmakers around him in first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram, while Tank Bigbsy leads all running backs in yards per rush attempt (7.2). What gives?
After watching their recent film, Lawrence isn't the problem. The Jags QB1 is 11th in PFF grade, leads the NFL with 13 deep completions, and is getting killed by his receivers on dropped passes. Lawrence's receivers have dropped 14 passes this season, tied for second-most in the NFL, and has lost the most EPA on dropped passes of any QB. In the above clips, Lawrence throws three touchdowns on the same drive, but the accurate passes were dropped by Davis, Thomas, and Kirk – the receivers he is supposed to rely on.
Jacksonville has been wildly inconsistent this season. However, the Jags shouldn't be taken lightly due to Lawrence and the talent around him. If they start getting out of their own way, like drops and Engram fumbling after a 24-yard gain, they've got the personnel to wake up offensively.
Furthermore, we have to discuss old nemesis Doug Pederson. The Jaguars head coach and offensive coordinator Press Taylor are running Frank Reich's system, the same system that the Eagles offense ran during the 2017 season when they beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 52. Based on the tape, the Jags ability to hurt the Pats with repeat plays is twofold.
First, unlike those Philly offenses, Lawrence doesn't throw many in-breaking routes. In fact, Lawrence has the lowest rate of in-breaking throws of any quarterback at 20.5%. Instead, T-Law likes to attack outside the numbers on hitches, outs, flats, and vertical routes. The Jaguars $55 million quarterback also ranks fourth in average air yards per pass attempt (9.4).
With that in mind, one would expect the Pats to play post-safety coverages so their corners can play with outside leverage, forcing receivers into their air space on outs and verticals. The Patriots can take away Lawrence's preferred routes, but it leaves them vulnerable to certain repeat plays that have burned them this season and in the past.
For example, the 49ers put a post-dig concept on tape that led to three explosives in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Then, the Texans ran their own version of the same general concept for a 26-yard gain against New England last week. In both instances, the Niners and Texans offenses caught the Pats in base defense, limiting their second-level coverage.
Since it's a copycat league, the Jaguars can put the Patriots in similar binds. The above bomb to Thomas Jr. is a carbon copy of the Deebo explosive. With the Browns in cover three, like the Pats were, the post safety jumps the crosser, leaving the outside corner out-leveraged on the post. Thomas Jr., a 4.33 burner, wins the foot race for a 66-yard completion.
Along with setting up vertical shots to their deep threats, Pederson also has the Super Bowl 52 game plan in his back pocket. Again, you don't see a ton of in-breaking throws like those Eagles teams, who lived off things like mesh and the Reid tree's "music" series with multiple in-breakers stressing post-safety structures with outside leverage man coverage defenders.
Although it's not their typical way of doing things, there are glimpses of Pederson's past on the Jags tape. Above, Jacksonville is running a concept that Pederson calls "deacon," where there is a low mesh concept (shallow crossers) with a deep dig creating levels to the play. The Eagles ran plays like "deacon" and mesh-rail (Clement TD) to attack the Pats man coverages.
If the Patriots take away Lawrence's sweet spots, one would expect Pederson to go to his old reliables. The Jags have the tools to give the Pats defense problems, so we'll see if Covington and Mayo have answers to these repeat plays on Jacksonville's call sheet on Sunday.
Key Matchups
Pats WR DeMario Douglas vs. Jags NDB Darnell Savage
It's great that the Patriots have a wideout who deserves a spot in key matchups. After signing as a free agent this offseason, Savage has played more in the slot than free safety, where he lined up in Green Bay. If he is over the slot against Pop, that's a clear advantage for Douglas, like it was last week against a similar player in Texans nickel-safety Jalen Pitre. The Jags are allowing a league-worst 128.3 passer rating vs. slot receivers this season. I'm not a betting man, but I might take the over on Pop's receiving yards and Drake Maye's rushing yards this week.
Pats Left Tackle (?) vs. Jags EDGE Josh Hines-Allen
We aren't sure who will be the Patriots starting left tackle on Sunday. But, if we had to guess, the starting five could be LT Trey Jacobs, LG Michael Jordan, C Ben Brown, RG Sow/Robinson, and RT Michael Onwenu.
Hines-Allen is an explosive edge rusher who ranks 12th among all defenders with 24 quarterback pressures. Hines-Allen likes to win with speed, using a chop-rip and an explosive inside-out rush to turn the corner. Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are the potential game-wreckers on the Jaguars defense.
Pats Right Tackle (?) vs. Jags EDGE Travon Walker
Moving over to the other side, Walker hasn't necessarily lived up to the hype of a number one overall pick. However, he's still an athletic freak with 23 QB pressures and five sacks this season. Walker is capable of having huge games, like his three-sack, seven QB pressure performance vs. Indy in Week 5.
EDGE Keion White vs. Jags RT Anton Harrison
During the 2023 draft process, Harrison was on pretty much all of our big boards as a Patriots target. He ended up going 28th overall to Jacksonville, and as a cautionary tale that we don't have all the answers, Harrison has struggled in the NFL. This season, he has already allowed 15 pressures and two sacks. The Jags have a strong interior O-Line in pass protection, with C Mitch Morse and RG Brandon Scherff ranking in the top-15 in pass-blocking win rate, so White might need to get his pressures against the weak link on the outside.
Bonus: Patriots Cornerbacks vs. Jaguars Wide Receivers
With the way Jacksonville deploys their receivers, this might be a sides game for the Patriots CBs rather than shadowing in a specific matchup. Davis and Thomas Jr. each run over 77% of their routes on the outside, while Kirk is a full-time slot receiver. Those two outside guys are pretty redundant with an even target share. Lawrence targets Thomas Jr. on 20.9% of his throws, while Davis sees a 17.3% target share, and both are deep threats. It seems like a similar coverage plan needs to be implemented for Davis and BTJ.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
