For the second straight week, New England is squaring off with an opponent currently in the AFC playoff picture that's a good measuring stick game for the rebuilding Patriots.
After a better showing last week in Buffalo, the Patriots must prove that their competitive approach vs. the Bills wasn't just a one-off performance. Building some late-season momentum will solidify the Patriots process under head coach Jerod Mayo heading into the 2025 offseason. Following a loss in Arizona, New England was much more competitive against their division rivals. Now, it's about stacking good games together to end the season.
Along with using Saturday's game vs. the Chargers as a litmus test, Los Angeles's fortunes since drafting franchise quarterback Justin Herbert sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft is a good teaching tool for the Patriots rebuild. With all due respect to the Chargers, one thought that comes to mind when evaluating Herbert's first four seasons as it pertains to New England is, "Don't waste four years of Maye by spinning the tires."
Los Angeles selected Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. As a rookie, Herbert was an instant-impact starter. The Chargers QB1 ranks ninth in ESPN's total QBR metric since entering the NFL, finishing in the top five twice, with an above-average 59.6 out of 100 QBR this season (15th among 34 QBs).
Although they have a 26-year-old stud quarterback, Herbert is on his third head coach and fourth offensive coordinator. The Chargers have played in one playoff game during his career, a shocking 31-30 loss to the Jaguars, where they led 27-0 in the second quarter of the 2022 Wild Card round. In the following season, the Chargers fired head coach Brandon Staley after starting 5-9, setting up Herbert to be on his third head coach.
Herbert has been fantastic but even having the quarterback figured out hasn't led to team success for the Chargers. From this perspective, that's the fear with Maye, who is actually one spot ahead of Herbert as the 14th-ranked quarterback in QBR during his rookie year (60.0). If the Patriots don't figure it out around Maye, they'll have a quarterback who looks the part without an infrastructure to support him properly.
After firing Staley, Los Angeles made a coaching splash by hiring former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh from the college ranks. Fresh off a national championship in Ann Arbor, Harbaugh returned to the pros, where he was 44-19-1 in four seasons as 49ers head coach from 2011-2014, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2012.
In his first season with Los Angeles, Harbaugh's Chargers have a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs with a 9-6 record. Herbert is supported by a defense that ranks 13th in DVOA, the best of his career, as the team takes on Harbaugh's identity as a hard-nosed, detail-oriented operation. After drafting OT Joe Alt at the top of the first round, LA has three first-rounders on their offensive line, with Alt (fifth overall) joining left tackle Rashawn Slater (13th overall in 2021) and left guard Zion Johnson (17th overall in 2022). As a result, the Chargers rank 10th in ESPN's pass-blocking win rate metric, the best pass protection of Herbert's career.
Although they're still in the honeymoon stage with Harbaugh, the Chargers are on the right track as an organization. LA comes to Foxboro after a Thursday night win over the Broncos, where Herbert was tremendous in primetime. By the looks of it, the Chargers have a coach-quarterback tandem that can compete with the top teams in the AFC. On Saturday, the Patriots will see the new-look Chargers firsthand.
Let's break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Chargers on Saturday.
Patriots Offense vs. Chargers Defense: Prepping QB Drake Maye for Jesse Minter's Defense
Starting on offense for the Patriots, Harbaugh's first addition to his coaching staff was bringing defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to Los Angeles.
Minter has been in the Harbaugh family coaching tree since he was on John's staff with the Ravens from 2017 to 2020 as a defensive assistant. Then, the up-and-coming coordinator went to the college ranks, eventually landing on Harbaugh's staff with the Wolverines over the last two seasons. After he and Harbaugh led Michigan to a national championship, Minter is now directing an above-average defense by DVOA, points allowed, expected points added, and success rate.
The Chargers have stars Khalil Mack (fourth among EDGE in PFF grade), Derwin James (10th among safeties), and vet DE Joey Bosa. However, Minter has his group punching above its talent level, with underrated veterans like NT Poona Ford, linebacker/signal-caller Daiyan Henley, and rookie CB Tarheeb Still supplementing their core contributors on defense.
As a schemer, Minter is a tactical play-caller who is an excellent game-planner. The 41-year-old rising coaching star will key on the offense's tendencies on early downs to allow LA's defense to play an aggressive style in obvious passing situations. The Chargers are a multiple-front zone defense, ranking 30th in man coverage usage this season (20.6%). Los Angeles also plays the lowest rate of press coverage in the NFL as the only team below 10 percent (9.8%). Their staple coverages are cover-three (28.8%), quarters (24.9%), and cover six (11.2%).
The goal for Minter's defense is to get teams off-schedule on early downs so he can call their third-down exotics. One way the Chargers get opposing offenses behind the chains is by using James, an excellent downhill player, on run blitzes. Above, LA slants the defensive line, with James blitzing off the backside. The line movement allows Ford to avoid a block to the play side to hold up the run while James runs it down.
Once they get you into third-and-long, the Chargers major in fire zones, ranking fifth in zone-blitz rate this season (18.4%). Los Angeles likes to disguise the coverage and pressure, typically showing man-to-man before dropping into zone. Plus, they'll simulate pressure by putting five or more rushing threats on the line of scrimmage. In this clip, they blitz the nickel corner and off-ball linebacker to make the quarterback throw hot, and Broncos rookie Bo Nix has to take a short completion on third down that fails to move the chains.
Knowing that Minter would make it mentally tough on their first-year quarterback, the Broncos led initially by simplifying things for Nix. Denver head coach Sean Payton used moving pockets, RPO designs, and other base schemes so that Minter's mind games didn't flummox Nix.
For example, Nix was most successful on bootlegs, simplifying the quarterback's reads by cutting the field in half and allowing Nix to use his legs when needed. The Broncos also moved the pocket on the goal line to produce an easy touchdown, and Nix had a 15-yard scramble on another movement play. On the scramble, Denver max protected with only two receivers releasing downfield. The Chargers covered the routes well, but Nix still got the edge to turn the play into a positive gain by running off the bootleg.
Next, Denver called its fair share of run-pass options to keep things simple last Thursday night. The Broncos anticipated that the Chargers would be aggressive on early downs to get Denver behind the chains, so Payton's counter was to use RPOs. In this example, LA run blitzes to form a five-man wall out of a two-high safety shell. Nix sees the blitz and gets the ball out to speedy WR Marvin Mims on the tear screen in the flat, where Denver has numbers for an explosive.
Knowing that Minter would call an aggressive early-down defense against a rookie quarterback, the Broncos did everything they could to simplify the game for Nix. Rather than having their first-year QB read out all of Minter's schemes in the drop-back passing game, Payton managed the game for Nix. Nix was 15-of-21 for 155 yards and two touchdowns while averaging just 2.2 air yards per pass attempt in the first half. Unfortunately for Denver, the game script forced the game into Nix's hands more in the final two quarters, leading to the Broncos demise.
This week, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt must do the same thing for Maye as Payton did for Nix. Minter, who is on the head coaching track, will spin the dial. So, the onus is on the Pats play-caller to keep the offense on schedule and help Maye see the field clearly.
Patriots Defense vs. Chargers Offense: How LA is Building Around QB Justin Herbert
Moving over to the other side of the ball, Harbaugh hired another familiar face to run his offense, with the Chargers tabbing longtime coach Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator.
Like Minter, Roman has been in the Harbaugh coaching tree for years, working with Jim at Stanford (2009-10) and San Francisco (2011-14). Then, when Jim returned to college, Roman eventually caught on with John in Baltimore (2017-22). Roman, who did the same for Colin Kaepernick with the 49ers, is best known for installing the designed quarterback run game into the Ravens offense for two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. Although he's mobile, Herbert is a different kind of quarterback who won't be a featured runner like Jackson, making that a key difference between the Chargers offense and what Roman was doing in Baltimore.
Although the quarterback is rightfully the star, the Chargers build their offense around the running game. Los Angeles ranks sixth in run-action rate, a run play or play-action pass, with the second-highest play-action rate in the NFL (19.1%). The Chargers are seventh in early-down pass frequency, but Herbert often throws off play-action, going 12-of-15 for 155 yards off play-action vs. Denver, his highest play-action rate in a game of his career (47.2%).
During his press conference this week, head coach Jerod Mayo said he expects the Chargers to run the football vs. the Patriots struggling run defense.
"I expect them to try to run the ball, especially how we looked last week. So, that's the challenge to the players that, look, they're going to come in here, it's no secret. They're going to want to run the ball, and we have to stop them and make them a one-dimensional team," Coach Mayo said Tuesday.
The Chargers get their run+play-action passing game going by setting it up with heavy personnel, which is the least surprising thing ever given their head coach and OC's history of playing smash-mouth football. LA ranks fourth in two-back rate usage (18.6%) and third in nub sets (16%), where a tight end is the further player out on one side of the formation. As his brother did with four-time Pro Bowl fullback Patrick Ricard, the Chargers converted defensive lineman Scott Matlock into a three-phase player. Matlock has played 126 snaps at fullback this season, with LA featuring him as a lead-blocker in their two-back sets. They'll run several lead actions like lead ISO (above), GF counter, and wide-zone lead.
When they get into the red zone, the Chargers feature Matlock in an abbreviated version of Roman's designed QB run package. This time, the Chargers have Hebert in the pistol and Matlock in a lead-blocking position. LA runs a counter-lead scheme where Herbert is holding the backside with the threat of the QB run, and the back walks in for six.
The idea is to make the defense respect the run game by getting into heavier personnel to match the Chargers power-run scheme. Then, LA starts dialing up their play-action concepts, with a mix of under-center and pistol alignments for the quarterback. In this clip, the Chargers are in a three-receiver pistol formation. They show the run-action with the pulling guard, then run a drive concept with two crossers over the middle. Denver's secondary does a poor job sorting through the tight bunch set, and rookie WR Ladd McConkey is left uncovered for an explosive play.
When they need to get into their drop-back passing game, that's when Herbert's star shines brightest. Herbert is an excellent downfield passer, both in rhythm and out of structure.
In this clip, the Chargers use motion to get into a mesh-rail concept from the high red zone. The Broncos defense covers the initial concept well and applies some pressure on the QB. However, Herbert buys time for the wheel to go into full effect and makes an incredible off-platform throw for a touchdown, which was possibly his highlight of the year.
Roman has also bought fully into the 4x1 spacing craze that is taking over the NFL. The Chargers are tied for 10th in the NFL in four-receiver side usage (14.1%). Here, LA runs a crossing concept with four receivers to Herbert's right and one receiver to his left. The crosser coming from the passing strength paired with the underneath whip route throws off Denver's cover-three zone defense, and Hebert hits the zone void.
Overall, the Chargers offense is getting great quarterback and offensive line play. However, outside of McConkey, their receivers are still a work in progress. That's led to them being a league-average 13th in DVOA and 19th in scoring offense (21.9 PPG). Still, you see the method to Roman's madness by giving Hebert enough scheme-created layups while allowing him to have those "wow" moments when the offense needs a play.
The balanced approach so that the game isn't all on Herbert being an alien has led to more consistent offense for the Chargers this season.
Key Matchups
Pats EDGE Anfernee Jennings vs. Chargers RT Joe Alt
We couldn't go the entire preview without discussing Alt's tape. Alt would've been a Patriot in an alternate universe where they had a quarterback in last year's draft. As a scribe who appreciates good offensive line play, Alt was a fun watch. His clinically sound technique, balance/flexibility, and foot speed are elite traits for a 6-9, 320-pound tackle. Denver routinely tested his power as a taller tackle who is still growing into his frame, and Alt dropped anchor just fine. The Pats would kill for an Alt-like prospect to emerge in the 2025 draft. He's a stud.
Pats CB Jonathan Jones vs. Chargers WR Ladd McConkey
After a terrific performance vs. Bills WR Khalil Shakir, Jones will be tasked with covering Chargers standout rookie Ladd McConkey this week. The Pats could've had McConkey at the top of the second round, opting to trade down and select WR Ja'Lynn Polk, while LA took McConkey with New England's original second-rounder. That's been a whiff so far for personnel chief Eliot Wolf. As for McConkey's film, he was schemed open a few times vs. the Broncos, with two big catches in his 89-yard performance being coverage busts. Still, McConkey is very explosive and knows how to set up his route breaks to separate from man coverage. He also has a knack for finding soft spots vs. zone. The rookie is one of those wideouts who just understands how to get open. Good football player.
Pats LT Vederian Lowe vs. Chargers EDGE Khalil Mack
Even at age 33, Mack is still doing his thing, ranking fourth among edge rushers in PFF grade with an elite 90.6 overall grade. The Chargers edge rusher, who typically rush over the left tackle but will move around some, is a well-rounded player, grading out well against the run (88.6) and as a pass-rusher, where he has a team-high 43 pressures. Mack's signature move throughout his career has been the long arm/bull rush. Lowe, who was better in Buffalo, will need to be consistent with his technique again this week, or Mack will take over this game like he did in the 2023 matchup (two sacks, six pressures).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
