The two ways to look at a trip to the desert for the Patriots in Sunday's matchup vs. the Cardinals are through the prism of finishing this season strong or with an eye toward the 2025 NFL Draft.
New England will come off its bye week already eliminated from playoff contention, while the Cardinals (6-7) playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after losing to the Seahawks in Week 14. Arizona is two games out of a playoff berth in the NFC, giving them a slim 8% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's playoff odds: the Cardinals are in must-win mode.
As for the Patriots, the question for head coach Jerod Mayo's team is what's their compete level with four games remaining in their season? The Pats could build some momentum in the last month of the year. A strong finish would set up an offseason where New England is loaded with resources to upgrade the roster. It sounds great in theory, right? And some recent success stories fit that criteria.
For example, the Lions went 2-2 to end a 3-13-1 campaign in head coach Dan Campbell's first season in 2021. Detroit followed that by winning five of their last six to narrowly miss the playoffs in 2022, finishing 9-8, and then broke out with a 12-5 campaign in 2023. Kyle Shanahan's Niners followed a similar script, finishing a 4-12 2018 season 2-2, then going 13-3 the next year, losing in the Super Bowl to Kansas City.
Believing the Patriots could rattle off a similar ending to this season is admittedly looking at things with rose-colored glasses. The added challenge is that the Pats have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, per DVOA, with two divisional games vs. the Bills, at home vs. the Chargers, and this week's road trip to Arizona to play out the string. Still, any sign of life could be the spark they need to turn the tide in 2025.
The other way to look at their remaining slate is through the lens of the 2025 NFL Draft. Currently, the Pats hold the third-overall pick in next April's draft, behind the Raiders and Giants. If things go awry, the coping mechanism we can all use is that New England will lock up another top-five draft pick, adding a second-straight highly drafted rookie class to first-round QB Drake Maye and 2023 first-rounder Christian Gonzalez.
From this perspective, the last month of this season is different from last year's since the Patriots already have their quarterback of the future in Maye. They're not losing out on a prized QB prospect by winning. Wins, or even competitive losses, aren't hollow now because it's building confidence in the Maye-Mayo regime. Plus, Maye will need help to make these games interesting, hopefully from some teammates who are a part of the Pats future plans.
That said, we'll have eyes on both the on-field product and the draft order the rest of the way. Already peeking at the draft and the offseason isn't where the Patriots want to be, but it's their reality, so we'll have to settle for hope for the future over breaking down playoff scenarios.
Let's preview the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Cardinals as New England returns from its bye in Arizona.
Patriots Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: Preparing Maye for a Fangio-Inspired Cards Defense
Starting on offense, Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye might get sick of seeing the same defensive philosophy every week, but it's one he'll have to familiarize himself with as it takes over the NFL.
After being hired away following a Super Bowl appearance as the Eagles defensive coordinator, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon brought his Fangio-inspired defensive system to Arizona. Gannon is a zone-based odd front (3-4) schemer who structures his defenses to limit big plays with base coverages popularized by now Philly DC Vic Fangio.
Like Fangio, the Cardinals often start the play in a two-high safety shell with a lighter box, relying on their defensive front to stop the run. Arizona plays out of a light box at the third-highest rate in the NFL (74.2%), while 61.1% of their defensive snaps start with a two-high safety structure (10th in the NFL). The Cardinals most-used coverage is a cover-three zone (31.3%), where they'll often "buzz" a safety into the short zone distribution while adding in late as extra run support. Although they disguise the coverage shell and pressure well, it's another week where patience and attacking the first two levels of the defense is a must for Maye.
Arizona's defense ranks a respectable 14th in DVOA playing this style, which has some creativity that makes it more exotic than the Seattle-3 defense Maye faced vs. Indy before the bye. Still, there are vulnerabilities. Mainly, the Cardinals run defense, which allowed 176 yards on 31 rush attempts to Seattle in a 30-18 loss in Week 14.
The Seahawks explosive runs mostly came by spreading out the Cardinals defense, knowing that Arizona would play out of a light box with two-high safeties to protect against big pass plays. Once they spread them out, the Seahawks ran the same RPO gap scheme three times for gains of 51 yards (TD), 18 yards, and 10 yards. The run-action is GT counter, where both the guard and tackle pull from the backside with the bubble screen attached as a pass option. Due to only having six in the box, the gap scheme exploited Arizona's gap-and-a-half run mechanics for big plays.
As for the drop-back passing game, here's where the Cardinals will get tricky. Arizona majors in scheming up pressure, ranking first in creeper rate (9.2%) and fourth in simulated pressures (2.5%). Since they primarily play zone coverage, the Cardinals disguise where the four-man rush is coming from to generate pressure. They're only 25th in team pressure rate (31.3%), but where the pressure comes from can be hard to decipher.
For example, here's a cover three zone with a creeper scheme. Arizona blitzes safety Budda Baker while dropping the left edge off the line into a short zone. The blockers don't see Baker coming from depth, so he has a free run at Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Luckily for Minnesota, the Vikings have a high-low concept called that puts the weak hook in conflict, and Darnold stares down the barrel to complete the pass to the dig.
The other obvious pass strategy the Cardinals use is to send cover-zero blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (7.1%). Arizona will mix in some man coverage, mainly cover zero or cover-one, on third down. Above, the Cardinals send the house, and Minny's man coverage answer to the left doesn't win fast enough for Darnold to get the ball out.
There are ways for the Patriots offense to stay on schedule vs. the Cardinals like the Seahawks did last week. Seattle gave them a blueprint using RPO schemes that are in New England's toolbox to run the ball. There are also drop-back answers that the Pats have used recently against other zone-heavy defenses, like high-lows, dagger, and flat-seven (attack the flat defender) that can be effective against this defense.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball between the 20s. However, the challenge will be in the red zone, where the fifth-best red zone defense will look to keep the 30th-ranked red zone offense out of pay dirt. In Week 13, the Pats were just 2-6 in the red zone vs. a bend-don't-break Colts defense, while Seattle was 2-5 in the red zone vs. Arizona last week. The fear is they're in for a similar fate where red zone struggles sink what's mostly a good offensive performance.
The onus is on offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to liven up the Patriots red zone offense. If they can break through there, New England should be able to compete in this game offensively.
Patriots Defense vs. Cardinals Offense: Arizona's Run Game Presents Biggest Challenge for New England
Moving over to the other side of the ball, it's a stop the run, then have some fun game to a tee, which has been an issue for the Patriots defense.
After ranking third in run defense DVOA last season, New England's run defense is one area where the team has regressed in 2024. The Pats are 28th in run defense DVOA, 21st in success rate (41%), and 19th in run stop win rate (31%). From this perspective, the most worrisome aspect of this matchup with the Cardinals is stopping Arizona's rushing attack.
The Cardinals have a balanced offensive approach under up-and-coming coordinator Drew Petzing. Petzing, who attended Wellesley High School in Massachusetts, is a coach on the rise as the director of an explosive Arizona offense. The Cardinals rank 10th in DVOA with the fifth-highest explosive play rate in the NFL (15.8%). They're a one-back offense that uses run actions, rush attempts or play-action, on 58.9% of their offensive plays (ninth in the NFL). Arizona also plays two or more tight ends at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (47.4%). The Cardinals are a mostly stagnant pre-snap offense, with the third-lowest motion rate in the NFL, but puts defenses in post-snap binds with a well-designed system.
With a powerful lead-back in James Conner, Arizona's rushing attack is a downhill scheme, with 71.3% of Conner's runs being gap schemes. The Cardinals will sequence together run actions from under center and the pistol, where they'll sometimes incorporate QB Kyler Murray's mobility. The Cardinals mainly use gap schemes like their staple GF Counter scheme from under the center (above). Arizona will use an off-the-line tight end and a pulling guard as lead blockers, folding the defensive front to attack second-level defenders with pulling offensive lineman.
Along with running counter schemes from under center, Arizona also runs these gap plays from a pistol formation, where they'll leave an unblocked "read" defender that the threat of Murray's legs holds on the backside of the formation. Murray's 169 rushing yards on designed runs rank eighth among quarterbacks, so it's in Arizona's bag, but they've tried to limit the body blows for their franchise quarterback by not running Murray as much as in years past.
From there, the Cardinals get into their boot or pistol-action game, where they'll use the same run actions as the scheme above to create conflict in the defense. Arizona simulates a gap run by pulling a guard as Murray bootlegs on the fake, then hits the second-level crosser here.
The Cardinals early-down run sequencing can be difficult to stop. Furthermore, the Cardinals also showed their man coverage beaters against a similar defense vs. the Vikings a few weeks ago. With former Pats assistant Brian Flores running Minnesota's defense, the Vikings hit similar notes as the Patriots from a coverage standpoint. Arizona's successful man coverage winners were stick/option routes to TE Trey McBride, double digs/crossers, and the defense must account for Murray's scrambling ability when they're in man coverage.
Although they had some answers, if you can get them into obvious passing situations, there is a formula to stop this Arizona offense.
According to NextGen Stats, Murray ranks dead last, 34th out of 34 quarterbacks, in expected points added when defenses blitz six or more defenders (-0.84). All-out blitzes are effective because bringing pressure forces the Cardinals QB to stay in the pocket. By bringing six-plus rushers, the defense can cover all Murray's escape routes, while blitzing defensive backs make it harder for Murray to run away from the rush.
There's an effective strategy to limit Murray in the passing game, but New England's defense needs to get Arizona into obvious passing situations. That's why the early-down run defense needs to do its job to stop Conner, Murray, and company to get the Cardinals offense behind schedule.
Key Matchups
Pats Safeties vs. Cardinals TE Trey McBride
McBride is emerging as one of the NFL's best tight ends, ranking second in receptions (80) and receiving yards (851). McBride is a physical, sudden route-runner who can separate against man coverage and add yards after the catch. The Pats have struggled at times covering tight ends, ranking 20th in DVOA vs. the position, so it'll be interesting to see the coverage plan for McBride. New England has covered big-time tight ends with corners, and McBride is the engine of Arizona's passing game.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
There's an alternate universe where Harrison is a Patriot, but that universe only existed in a timeline where the Patriots already had a quarterback. Nevertheless, MHJ has had some rookie growing pains but has flashed the potential that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2024 draft. Harrison Jr. has nine explosives and seven touchdowns as Arizona's big-play threat outside the numbers. It'll be fun to see Gonzo go head-to-head with a rookie whom we discussed plenty during the draft.
QB Drake Maye vs. Cardinals S Budda Baker
The last key matchup is a little outside the box but is absolutely vital for the offense's success. Baker is a chess piece who is constantly around the ball, logging 10 pressures (third among DBs) and nine TFLs this season. Baker needs to be accounted for in the run and pass game, as he'll blitz and blow up runs in the backfield with excellent instincts to time up the snap. Maye needs to make sure he has eyes and a hat on Baker at all times. The two-time All-Pro is a game wrecker.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
