When former Patriots executive Nick Caserio became the general manager in Houston, the Texans were in flux coming off a 4-12 season.
For Caserio, it took two more losing seasons until Houston got off the mat. The Texans won a combined seven games, had multiple head coaches, and had a major quarterback change. Like the Patriots are experiencing, Houston took their lumps to become an AFC darling.
The Texans are rolling after hiring head coach DeMeco Ryans, drafting star QB C.J. Stroud, and accumulating first-round picks. Houston went 10-7 in Ryans and Stroud's first season with the team, winning a playoff game to reach the divisional round. This season, the Texans have the second-best record in the AFC at 4-1 after defeating the Bills at the buzzer last week.
Although things are bumpy in Foxborough, the Texans gave the rebuilding Patriots a blueprint, right down to an early first-round quarterback and a former linebacker-turned-head coach. Ryans, who received votes for NFL Coach of the Year in 2023, has a resume similar to that of head coach Jerod Mayo. Following a 10-year playing career, Ryans spent six seasons on 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan's defensive staff. Eventually, Ryans became San Francisco's defensive coordinator for two seasons before becoming a head coach.
After playing for the Patriots for eight seasons, Coach Mayo was on former head coach Bill Belichick's staff for five seasons. Mayo and Ryans also took the reins as first-time head coaches before turning 40. The parallels between these two organizations should give Patriots fans hope for the future: a Belichick disciple as a GM, Mayo-Ryans similarities, and two early first-round quarterbacks.
Speaking of the future and quarterback, Maye will make his first career start in Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium. It's the beginning of a new era in New England, and as we'll break down in this space, Maye will have a stiff test out of the gate against an AFC contender. Houston is currently seventh in total DVOA with the third-best defense in the NFL through five weeks. The Texans also feature the league's best pass rush, with a pressure rate of 42%. Still, this is an exciting development for an offense that needs the talented rookie to give them a spark.
Here is a breakdown of both sides of the ball and key matchups as the Patriots host the Texans at Gillette Stadium on Sunday:
Patriots Offense vs. Texans Defense: Devising a Game Plan for Maye's First Career Start
Before we get into the Texans defense, let's begin by discussing what the call sheet could look like for Maye in his first career start for the Patriots (I still kind of can't believe it).
During the summer, we asked offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt about his offense, emphasizing playing from under center. In the first five weeks, New England was under center on 38% of their offensive plays, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. The reasoning for the question was that Maye almost exclusively operated in the shotgun or pistol at North Carolina. Then, in 50 drop-backs between the preseason and regular season, Maye was only under center on four plays (8%). Here is what the Pats OC said back in August:
"In our system, we go under center. Our run game is a big part of what we do, and that starts from under center. I think he's adapted well. It was foreign to him as he got here, but right now, it looks seamless," Van Pelt said.
Van Pelt seemed encouraged by Maye's progress operating under center during the preseason. That could mean that, with the Patriots down three scores vs. the Jets, the situation didn't make sense for them to be under center. There's also a world where AVP runs his under-center offense from the pistol, where the runner can still go in either direction from behind the quarterback, and you can play-action pass by turning the quarterback's back to the defense.
Besides deciding how they'll align the quarterback with Maye, the rookie's most common routes were hitches, flats, and crossers, with most of his throws being in-breaking routes (31%). He also threw mostly in the quick game or rhythm rather than extended plays. Here were some repeat plays we saw on film when Maye got his opportunities.
Starting with the early-down offense, the Patriots primarily ran two of their base concepts with Maye designed to be from under center: hank and drive. Starting with the hank concept, this pairs two deep hitch routes with flats to stretch the short zones to create a downfield passing window. Above, Maye alertly goes into the shotgun when he sees B-Gap pressure, and when the defense falls underneath the deep hitch routes, he takes the flat for a positive gain.
The other early-down staple for the Patriots is the drive concept, where there are crossers at the first and second levels, usually paired with a vertical route. They ran this a few different ways, both in the gun and under center. In this clip, they run it with under center play-action, and Maye rips a great ball to rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk. The Pats ran this play a second time in the same game to hit WR DeMario Douglas for a chunk play.
When they got into their late-down Maye offense, the Patriots called plays that let Maye layer throws into the middle of the field and create with his mobility when necessary.
This time, the Pats are running a West Coast staple called 'COCO-Bow,' which pairs a corner and an out in the initial read with a backside dig route. With the defense covering the initial read side to Maye's right, he progresses to the "bow" side and hits WR Javon Baker for a first down.
There were also plays where Maye picked up first downs with his legs. Above, the Pats ran "all slants," breaking into the middle of the field. With the defense in man coverage, there's nobody to account for the quarterback, so Maye runs for the first down.
Lastly, Maye's mobility will likely factor into the Patriots play-calling on designed option plays. The Pats ran a handful of early-down RPOs with Maye and amplified his mobility in short-yardage situations. Along with running for first downs when plays break down, the Patriots can also add an option package, which will make their offense more dynamic.
Patriots veteran Jacoby Brissett battled through adversity for his team in the season's first five games. He was behind a patchwork offensive line that ranks last in pass-blocking win rate and throwing to a receiver group that is still in a rebuilding phase without a true No. 1 option. This offense was experiencing growing pains, and Brissett was sent out there to manage games to the best of his ability without much stability around him.
However, the Patriots need a quarterback who can elevate those around him. The hope is that Maye's arm talent, mobility, and improvisational skills will provide that spark, especially in late-down and crunch-time situations like the Patriots were in last Sunday. Maye has the physical tools to do it, but matching up against the Texans in his first start won't be easy.
Houston enters the week as the third-ranked defense in DVOA coming off a game where they held a top-five MVP candidate to this stat-line: 9-of-30, 131 yards, +0.04 expected points added (46th percentile). Bills QB Josh Allen's efficiency was helped by four rushes for 54 yards, but this Texans pass defense is legit. Houston has the top-ranked pass rush in pressure rate (42%) and is playing a more aggressive brand of defense under Ryans this season.
As a 49ers disciple, Ryans's roots are in the Seattle-3 scheme that primarily runs zone defense (cover-three/quarters). However, Ryans is calling far more man coverage and blitz pressure in 2024. In the first five weeks, Houston ranks sixth in man coverage rate (36.2%), up from 18.9% in Ryans's first season, and is blitzing at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL (32.8%). There's more cover one and cover zero with less split-safety zone.
Along with stifling Allen, the Texans already flummoxed one rookie quarterback this season. In Week 2, Houston intercepted first-overall pick Caleb Williams twice and sacked him seven times in a 19-13 win. The Texans defense dominated by forcing the rookie to make decisive decisions against pressure and a high percentage of man coverage. Houston blitzed the first-overall pick on 41.7% of his drop-back with a 39.6% man coverage rate.
Houston registered five of their seven sacks on blitzes. For example, several downs looked exactly like this backed-up sack. The defense is in man-free coverage, with man-to-man across the board and a single-high safety. The coverage allows for six defenders on the line of scrimmage, with one defender in the box likely responsible for the running back. The Texans then run a twist inside to get a rusher free, and Williams has no chance.
Although it was far from perfect, the Patriots offensive line had one of its better performances last week vs. the Dolphins. New England will likely keep the same starting five for continuity purposes, but this Texans front is far superior to Miami's healthy personnel. Houston's bookend edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have a combined 42 pressures through five games – they're the real deal. It remains to be seen if the line can pass protect against the level of competition the Patriots will face this week.
That said, leaving Maye on the bench any longer with him progressing behind the scenes was delaying the inevitable. Eventually, he needed to play, and life in the NFL for a quarterback is that every defense will present problems. On Sunday, we'll see if Maye can solve them.
Patriots Defense vs. Texans Offense: Taking Away C.J. Stroud's Bread and Butters
Moving over to the defense, the Texans offense isn't as productive as you might think, but it is certainly not a unit that can be taken lightly.
Houston is currently 19th in scoring offense (20.4 PPG) and 21st in DVOA. After losing lead-back Joe Mixon to an ankle injury, the Texans rush offense has plummeted to 26th in DVOA. Star QB C.J. Stroud will also be without top wideout Nico Collins (hamstring), who leads the NFL with 567 receiving yards through five weeks, while second-year WR Tank Dell is still getting his burst back after breaking his fibula last December.
Due to injuries and an inconsistent run game, the Texans are 31st in the NFL in early-down expected points added (-0.16) – only the Browns are worse, meaning the Patriots stagnant offense is better. Stroud's magic is still shining on third down, ranking 10th in third-down efficiency (42.3%) and second in EPA produced on third down (+0.33).
Houston is looking for more consistency offensively, but play-caller Bobby Slowik is still a hot head coaching candidate. Slowik came over with Ryans from the 49ers after rising to passing game coordinator for San Francisco. He runs a Shanahan-style scheme with condensed formations, the 10th-highest under center rate, a top-10 motion rate, and the Texans run 30.4% of their offensive plays out of 12 personnel (2nd in NFL).
The Texans like to build their base offense off their run game, where they will run two-back formations and gun runs to allow Stroud to cook. They ran a similar drive concept that's in the Patriots playbook several times last week vs. the Bills, with Stroud hitting it at multiple levels.
First, Houston uses gun-action to bait the linebacker level out of the passing lanes to the crossers. Buffalo's defense falls into cover six, with quarters to the right and a half-field safety to the left. Stroud reads the quarters-side safety. When the safety near the right hash jumps the second-level crosser, Stroud throws the vertical for a long touchdown.
Later on, the Texans run another variation of the drive concept to present the play differently to the defense. This time, Stroud throws a dot to the second-level crosser with a pass-rusher in his lap.
Stroud's ability to throw accurately under pressure is impressive. His downfield ball placement is great, and he doesn't need much space to get passes off in the pocket. Not to get too flowery about the opposing QB, but Stroud is excellent. The key to making life difficult on Stroud is taking away the middle of the field. Stroud throws in-breakers at the sixth-highest clip in the NFL (34.5%), with crossers, digs, posts, and angle routes out of the backfield all over his film.
You have a chance if you can force the ball outside the numbers, especially without Collins. Stroud is also generating +0.77 EPA per play vs. man coverage compared to -0.08 expected points added against zone, with all three of his interceptions vs. zone. We've advocated for the Patriots to play more man coverage, but Stroud owns man-to-man this season. Granted, that's with Collins in the lineup.
New England might line up strength-on-strength against a shorthanded Texans skill group, allowing them to keep Houston's running game down and turn this into a third-down game.
Key Matchups
LT Vederian Lowe vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson
Although they'll move them around some, Anderson primarily lines up over the left tackle in Houston's defense. Last week, Lowe had a clean sheet, mainly working against Dolphins rookie edge rusher Chop Robinson, a positive sign, but Anderson is a different animal. Anderson uses powerful strides to convert speed to power and has a knack for slipping inside blockers on slants or stunts. When the Pats dial-up deeper drops, it would behoove them to send help Lowe's way, either with chips or moving the pocket playing to Maye's athleticism.
RT Trey Jacobs vs. Texans EDGE Danielle Hunter
Jacobs only allowed two hurries in his first NFL start at right tackle against Dolphins edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah. It was far from perfect, but Jacobs had some impressive vertical sets where his length and firm punches derailed pass rushers. He needs to get out of his stance better to cut off the corner, but if he can get his hands on Hunter, he'll be alright. Hunter likes to operate on the rip series and use an inside spin counter. He's more technician than a first-step explosive athlete, but Hunter dents the pocket and is a stout run defender as well.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Texans WR Stefon Diggs
Diggs is no longer in the division, but Gonzalez will likely see him this week. With star WR Nico Collins (hamstring) unlikely to play, it makes sense for Gonzo to travel with Diggs, allowing the Joneses to track speedy wideout Tank Dell and possibly Marco Wilson on 6-foot-2 receiver Xavier Hutchinson. The Pats can match up man-to-man with this group without Collins.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
