The Patriots are heading into a divisional matchup with the Dolphins on Sunday at Gillette Stadium at a potential tipping point in their season.
After three consecutive losses, head coach Jerod Mayo's team is teetering on a free-fall. There are offensive players visibly frustrated with their lack of production, veteran defenders calling out teammates, and the external noise for third-overall pick Drake Maye to play grows louder and louder with each sputtering offensive performance.
This week, the Patriots will face a Miami team at home that's also in turmoil without their star quarterback. For the first time this season, New England is favored to win a game (-1), with the Dolphins set to start third-string QB Tyler Huntley for a second straight week.
Despite having an elite receiver tandem and a bright offensive-minded head coach, the Dolphins offense is statistically worse than the Patriots. Miami's offense is dead-last in points (11.3), EPA per play, and 31st in DVOA. After winning at the buzzer in Week 1, the Dolphins (1-3) have yet to lead in a game this season. Without star QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), it's bad in South Beach.
Given the circumstances, if Coach Mayo's team can't grind out a win on Sunday, the fear is the Patriots are headed for a dark place. Sunday's tilt is a winnable home game that the Pats should be able to squeak out. A loss to a shorthanded Dolphins team would have people asking some tough questions about this new regime.
Let's get into the schemes and matchups that'll decide Patriots-Dolphins on Sunday at Gillette Stadium:
Patriots Offense vs. Dolphins Defense: Can the Pats Beat the Blueprint Currently Out on Them?
The big question for the Patriots offense is whether they can find solutions to the blueprint that defenses are successfully using against them.
After rushing for 355 yards in the first two weeks, opposing defenses studied the Pats offense on film and concluded: don't worry about their downfield passing game and expose the offensive line by attacking the line of scrimmage. In the first two games, the Bengals and Seahawks still put an extra defender in the box more often than not. However, they weren't as aggressive coming downhill at the line of scrimmage.
Over the last two weeks, the Jets and 49ers ramped up the pressure. After facing a blitz rate of 18% in the first two weeks, the Patriots have been blitzed on 36.5% of their drop-backs since Week 3. Along with blitzing, defenses are also playing single-high safety structures at a league-high rate (51.1%), the highest rate of Cover-1 man coverages against New England (35.8%), and lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson is seeing 7.03 defenders in the box on average (7th-highest in NFL). The formula is to force the Patriots to beat the defense by throwing vertically outside the numbers, which we know is a struggle for this offense.
On film, you see this manifest itself on early-downs quite often. Here is the first play from scrimmage for the Pats offense last week. Notice how the second level of the Niners defense has zero respect for play-action or any pass play and immediately triggers downhill at this duo scheme.
When the Patriots do dial-up play-action, defenses are blitzing them from under center. In this example, the Jets roll a safety down to blitz off the edge while playing man coverage in the secondary. The coverage eliminates any conflict for defenders in the box. The run-action has no chance to develop, receivers are covered downfield, and Brissett takes a sack.
Now, it's the Dolphins turn to play the hits vs. the Patriots. Statistically, Miami's defense can be had. The Dolphins defense is 23rd in total DVOA and 26th vs. the run. However, until the Patriots get teams to back off, running the football and getting passes off behind a shaky offensive line will be challenging for the passing offense.
"Teams are going to pressure us, and we're very aware of that. So now, it's about how do we answer and combat that moving forward," quarterback Jacoby Brissett said this week.
McDaniel hired Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver to replace veteran coordinator Vic Fangio. McDaniel tabbed the Ravens disciple to a Baltimore twist on the Dolphins defense. Miami is primarily a zone defense, with the fourth-highest zone coverage rate in the NFL through four weeks (81.9%). Although they're not a blitz-heavy unit on paper, neither were the Jets and Niners. Plus, Weaver schemes up pressure plenty. Miami also likes to play the run aggressively, like line slants and run blitzes. In other words, executing the blueprint to stifle the Pats offense is in Miami's bag.
The other massive matchup note is that the Patriots offensive line could be put in a blender this week. New England is expected to be without starting center David Andrews (shoulder) indefinitely, while LT Vederian Lowe and LG Michael Jordan could return after missing time due to injuries. It's early in the week, but the Pats O-Line could look like this on Sunday: LT Lowe, LG Jordan, C Leverett, RG Sow, and RT Onwenu.
On the other side of the line, the Dolphins are dealing with injuries of their own. Miami lost top edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips (knee) for the season last Monday night, with first-rounder Chop Robinson as next man up. Robinson is an explosive, twitchy rusher in the Joshua Uche mold. The Dolphins still have stout interior defenders in Emmanuel Ogbah, Calais Campbell, and underrated DT Zach Sieler. Miami ranks 11th in pressure rate this season (36.2%), so they can get after the quarterback.
As a run defense, the Dolphins have reps like this one where they'll slant the defensive line inside on the backside and blitz a linebacker off the edge. The scheme is complemented by one-gap principles on the front side, unlocking DT Calais Campbell to swim over the tight end's block. The combination leads to a TFL for the defense.
As for the pass defense, rather than simply sending five-plus rushers, the Dolphins like to overload protections with simulated or creeper pressures. Miami runs a schemed pressure on 3.5% of their defensive plays, ranking 11th in how frequently they drop a defender off the line of scrimmage (28.6%).
Here's an example of Miami's pass defense executing the blueprint that's giving the Patriots problems. In the play, the Dolphins bring two defenders from off the line on a blitz that overloads the left side. At the same time, Phillips drops off the line to play man coverage on the tight end. The pressure gets home and the man coverage forces an incompletion.
The challenge to devising a game plan for the Patriots offense is their own limitations. It's easy to see things other teams were successful with against an opponent, but will that defense scheme the Patriots the same way? Will the Pats be able to execute? Right now, the answer is no. Look at the Jets and Niners, who changed their typical approach against New England.
Until the Patriots beat the blueprint, defenses will game-plan them the same way. Before they begin calling their own scripted plays, New England's offense needs to re-write the book.
Patriots Defense vs. Dolphins Offense: What Can the Dolphins Run With QB Tyler Huntley?
Moving over to the Dolphins offense, the Patriots aren't in a position to take an offense lightly just because Miami is down to its third-string quarterback.
After finishing ninth last season, New England is currently 28th in DVOA on defense. They've lost key players to injuries and trades while losing the greatest defensive mind in NFL history, so some regression was expected. However, this is more than just a little drop-off.
Specifically, the Patriots are running a slightly different scheme than under former head coach Bill Belichick. Due to the schematic tweaks, there has been an adjustment period on the edge, leading to poor gap discipline and quarterbacks escaping the pocket. As a result, New England is 31st in third-down efficiency, which head coach Jerod Mayo addressed this week.
"As far as the edge is concerned, it's not just one person, it's been different people every single week," Mayo said. "When you go back and look at some of those plays, you think, look, we're not good on third down. Why? It's not because we're not covering guys. It's because we're giving the quarterback the chance to get outside the pocket. I think we just need to play better as a team and not as individuals for us to have a good chance at winning games."
The film backs up Mayo here. When you study the Patriots third-down defense, it's the pass rush, not the coverage, that's the biggest issue. Their initial coverage on third down has been very competitive over the last two games. Above, you can see that the initial man coverage is tight, but a T/E stunt between Keion White and Deatrich Wise goes awry, allowing Purdy out of the pocket, and the Niners QB moves the chains with an off-script pass to TE George Kittle.
We've discussed the possibility of returning to their man coverage roots on third down already. Mainly, the Pats have struggled to generate productive pressure out of their four-man rushes this season. By playing more Cover-2 on third downs, it's taking a defender out of the pass rush, where the Patriots would historically use a five-man rush with man coverage behind it. This season, the Pats are running their lowest percentage of man coverage on third down since 2018 (45.7%). By having five rushers, it allowed New England to run different schemed rushes to generate pressure while keeping the QB in the pocket using a spy (see above). The zone coverages on third down aren't working, so it's time to adjust.
The Patriots need to shore up their third down defense, and this week presents a good litmus test. Although they're facing an offense that ranks dead-last in points with a backup quarterback, the Dolphins still have two elite receivers and an exotic offensive system. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a trend-setting offensive mind. The hallmarks of McDaniel's offense are motion, an outside-hitting run game, in-breaking routes off play-action, and obviously, vertical shots to Hill and Waddle.
The Dolphins are number one in the NFL in motion rate (84%) and vertical pass attempts (26.2%). They also use motion at the snap rate at the second-highest clip, where they'll put Hill and Waddle in jet motion and "cheat" motion to give them rolling starts into their routes. There were examples on film where Hill was getting open deep vs. the Titans. Huntley went 0-for-3 on his deep passes, but the opportunities were there. Hill is as dangerous as ever if you fall asleep at the wheel.
Rather than running their run+play-action sequencing from under center, Miami also runs the highest amount of plays from the pistol (38.8%). Pistol creates gaps on the line of scrimmage like they're under center because the running back is still behind the quarterback. The back can still go either direction rather than being offset, while the QB still turns his back to the defense to sell play-action. Many modern quarterbacks aren't comfortable playing from under center, so the compromise is the pistol (Hello, AVP, please do this with Drake Maye).
Miami likes to use their team speed to attack the edges. The Dolphins major in Shanahan-style outside zone concepts. They use outside runs from the pistol and then pair them with play-action. The Dolphins play-action staples are glance routes (skinny posts) and digs/crossers. By using outsize zone-actions to get the linebackers moving horizontally, Miami creates passing windows for Hill and Waddle to run in-breakers over the middle. When they hit on time, the Dolphins wideouts can be devastating on these schemes after the catch.
Typically, you see defenses combat these play-action concepts by playing man coverage so the linebackers in the box don't need to worry about dropping into short zones or quarters structures. In quarters, the defense has two deep zone defenders on each side of the field that can bracket those in-breakers. It's also easier to provide run support in the alleys and to stay on top of vertical routes in zone schemes. The Pats played a lot of 6-1 fronts with quarters behind it vs. the 49ers, a similar scheme, so that might be the plan again this week.
With Huntley, you also need to worry about the quarterback run game. Since containing quarterbacks in the pocket is already an issue for this defense, this has to be a big coaching emphasis this week. Huntley picked up three first downs with his legs last week on four designed runs and two scrambles. Above, Miami runs a designed QB draw for a first down.
Based on the numbers, the Patriots defense should control play against a Tua-less Dolphins offense. However, that doesn't mean they can take their opponent lightly. They could also use the in-game reps to fix certain issues for when they play healthier offenses.
New England struggling on offense this season was expected, but they're playing below their talent level on defense. It's time to start seeing this unit round into form.
Key Matchups
Pats Secondary vs. Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle
When you play two game-breaking receivers, it takes a village to prevent explosive plays. As mentioned, don't sleep on this duo because of Huntley. The film shows them getting open plenty. Eventually, Huntley will hit a deep shot, while this tandem can also get loose after the catch.
Last season, CB Jonathan Jones was injured for the Week 2 matchup, and then Christian Gonzalez was hurt for the Week 8 tilt. Gonzo shadowed Hill on 17 routes in the first matchup, receiving praise from the Dolphins wideout for holding Hill to one catch for eight yards with an interception. In other matchups, Jones has been a Hill-stopper, matching speed on speed. With all the motion Miami uses and three corners who can keep up in foot races with the Dolphins wideouts, Marcus Jones included, my guess is the Pats play sides. Whoever motions to your side, take him, rather than trying to travel all over the formation in man coverage.
Pats Left Tackle (?) vs. Dolphins EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
The Patriots are catching a break with the Dolphins losing top edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (knee) for the season. New England's shaky O-Line won't need to face Phillips on Sunday, but whoever is at left tackle will still see plenty of Ogbah, who lines up over the left side most of the time anyway. Ogbah's game reminds me a little of Deatrich Wise: great length, heavy/active hands, disciplined, tough. He won't overwhelm you with athleticism, but Ogbah is a solid football player. Based on practice, OT Vederian Lowe could be back at left tackle this week.
Pats Guards vs. Dolphins DTs Zach Sieler & Calais Campbell
The two guard spots were the other main pressure points along the Patriots offensive line in the loss to the 49ers. Rookie RG Layden Robinson (seven) and LG Sidy Sow (four) combined to allow 11 quarterback pressures and two sacks. This week, they could be shuffling things around, reinserting veteran LG Michael Jordan into the starting lineup with Sow moving back to the right side. As for the matchups, Campbell is a household name, but Sieler is very underrated. Sieler is an active rusher who plays hot and downhill. He leads Miami with 12 pressures. This is another tough matchup for the interior O-Line.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
