Locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson
Bubble: Kevin Harris, JaMycal Hasty
In the Mix: DeShaun Fenwick (UDFA), Terrell Jennings (UDFA)
The Patriots are heading into camp with a projected two-headed monster at running back, similar to how the Browns built their roster with Nick Chubb and his sidekicks over the years.
After signing Rhamondre Stevenson to a four-year contract extension, it's apparent that the 26-year-old is New England's lead back. However, the Patriots also added free-agent running back Antonio Gibson to pair with Stevenson. Despite rewarding Stevenson contractually like a top-10 running back, Gibson will also be a big part of the offense.
We wouldn't expect Stevenson to receive the same volume he saw over the last two seasons. The fourth-year running back was on the field for 64.7% of the offensive snaps in the last two seasons, with back-to-back 190-plus touch campaigns. Stevenson's workload took a toll on him, and his 2023 season ended early due to a painful ankle injury.
Certain factors outside his control contributed to Stevenson's dip in production. However, after breaking out with 1,461 scrimmage yards on 5.2 yards per touch in a career year in 2022, Stevenson's efficiency took a significant hit last season, finishing with 857 total yards on 4.4 yards per touch. Furthermore, Stevenson's yards per carry dropped a full yard from 2022 to 2023.
According to NextGenStats, a major part of Stevenson's decline was linked to the blocking he received from the offensive line. Last season, Stevenson's average speed at the line of scrimmage was 8.97 MPH, compared to 9.43 MPH two years ago. The Pats RB1 wasn't generating as much speed and, at times, was being contacted in the early stages of the rush.
As a result, his ability to break tackles suffered, with his yards after contact production decreasing by a full yard as well (3.8 in 2022 to 2.8 in 2023). You can make a strong case that Stevenson's rushing efficiency suffered because the openings weren't there due to poor blocking. However, based on what we know about running backs, the increased workload could also be catching up to him.
Due to the latter statement, one would expect Gibson to platoon with Stevenson this season. Along with having a receiver background to contribute in the passing game, Gibson has the explosiveness to generate yards in the outside zone system the Patriots are expecting to run.
In 2021, Gibson rushed for over 1,000 yards in Scott Turner's offense in Washington. The 2020 third-round pick fell out of favor with the Commanders coaching staff, but his 4.39-speed still plays, allowing him to burst through cutback lanes and get the edge on outside zone schemes.
Gibson will likely see most of his snaps come in passing or sub-back situations, but seeing him cut into Stevenson's early-down workload wouldn't be shocking. As a 225-pound back, Stevenson's skill set might not lend itself to OC Alex Van Pelt's ideal rushing scheme.
Chubb is also a bigger back, so it's not impossible for Stevenson to thrive on outside zone. Plus, the Browns began incorporating more gap schemes for various reasons last season. Cleveland featured trap/counter, duo, and other gap designs, so it's in AVP's bag. Still, you wonder how much Van Pelt will pivot if Stevenson's style doesn't translate, whereas Gibson's high-end speed is typically what you see in traditional zone backs.
Elsewhere on the running back depth chart, New England also has a wide-open battle ensuing for the third and potentially fourth running back spots. In 2023, the Browns only carried three running backs on their initial roster, so it's possible that Van Pelt won't need a fourth. With that said, there isn't much proven NFL talent at the position behind Gibson and Stevenson.
Kevin Harris, the current favorite to win the roster spot, has 34 career rushing attempts in his first two seasons. Harris runs hard with a bruising style, forcing a decent eight missed tackles on his 34 career attempts. Veteran Jamycal Hasty is the other back with NFL experience on the roster. Hasty has been functional as a pass-catcher out of the backfield in the spring and has 357 career special teams snaps, including 16 career kickoff returns.
Although it's a different coaching staff, Hasty's skill set resembles former Patriots fan favorite Brandon Bolden – a core special-teamer who can play running back in a pinch. Two undrafted free agents make up the rest of the running back room at the moment, with all this being a long-winded way of saying they could use more proven depth at the position.
Early on, the Patriots might give Harris a chance to earn a role as the third running back. However, if things aren't breaking his way, the Pats could look to make a late addition a la Ezekiel Elliott last summer. Elliott joined the team in mid-August after being released by the Cowboys. With running backs often available late in the offseason, that remains a possibility for the Patriots, who want to be a productive rushing team.
With Van Pelt at the helm, the Patriots rushing attack will be the engine of their offense. Being a strong rushing offense serves as the foundation for hunting explosive plays through play-action sequencing on early downs, which is the hallmark of this system.
New England needs a bounce-back rushing campaign to maximize the West Coast offense they're transitioning to this season.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
