The Patriots are headed back across the Atlantic Ocean to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium this Sunday. It's New England's first trip back to England in over a decade. They were last at Wembley in 2012, crushing the then St. Louis Rams by a score of 45-7.
Both the Pats and Jags are 1-5 on the season but they are two franchises in very different places. Jacksonville expected to contend for the AFC South this season and has built a team to win now around 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence. Somehow, they have struggled out of the gate, while the Patriots are suddenly feeling reenergized following a promising debut of their own first-round quarterback, Drake Maye.
The Jaguars defense should provide opportunity for Maye to continue his growth, but Lawrence and his weapons remain a dangerous offense that can score points quickly.
Here's what to watch as two teams battle for an elusive second win of the 2024 season.
Drake Maye – What will Maye do for a follow-up to his three-touchdown debut? Jacksonville's defense has plenty of talent but it has not translated to the field this season. The Jags defense ranks 27th in DVOA and 32nd against the pass in DVOA as well as 32nd in EPA. Maye could take advantage of them if he's able to make some positive strides forward with improved accuracy and pocket awareness, the two pieces of his game that will likely get the most focus for improvement going forward. If those areas do improve the turnovers and negative plays will come down. Regardless, it's another great chance to make strides and grow as an NFL quarterback. The international setting will be a good test of his routine and another piece of great experience.
"Overall, Drake did a good job with his reads and getting the ball out [against Houston],' said Jerod Mayo earlier this week. "Was it perfect? No. Will he get better? Absolutely. But we've got to do a better job supporting a rookie quarterback."
Offensive Line – Maye's success will largely depend on the offensive line which continues to be in flux no matter what they do. Last week it almost appeared they'd have the same starting five in back-to-back games for the first time all season but alas, the just-arrived Ben Brown got the start at center and Vederian Lowe was soon after lost to an injury. It all starts up front and the Patriots are desperate to find consistency from their blockers both against the pass and in the run game. If they can open some more holes and provide better pockets for Maye, the Patriots offense will have a legitimate chance to take a big step forward against the Jags. The tackles are the key pieces with Lowe missing practice this week and a likely inactive for the game.
Running backs – Rhamondre Stevenson's absence last week was one part of why the Patriots offense was unable to crack 100 total rushing yards for the third time in four weeks. Getting the run game back on track is as much about the aforementioned offensive line as it is about getting their star running back back in the lineup. New England's rushing offense continues to be mired at 29th overall in DVOA and it appears they'll be without Stevenson for a second week. If they could get off to a better start it should also help open up opportunities for the run game to be successful. Antonio Gibson will play a key role once again.
Run Defense – On the flip side, the Patriots run defense has had even bigger struggles, allowing more and more yardage on the ground with each passing week since holding the Seahawks to just 46 yards on the ground. Back-to-back weeks of allowing 190-plus yards on the ground is not a formula for success. Veteran Davon Godchaux tried to hold his group accountable after the loss to Houston. The rest of the defense has to kick into gear against the run or else it will be hard for the Patriots to take control of games, especially if they fall into a points deficit.
Mayo was succinct when answering what the problems with the run defense were against Houston. "Poor run fits, poor tackling, and then we couldn't catch them."
Keion White – The second-year defensive lineman has continued to build on his breakout year as New England's most effective, and sometimes only, consistently disruptive player against the pass. White has 25 QB pressures, more than double the 12 that second-place Deatrich Wise has, while his four sacks lead the team overall. Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still an outstanding player who was let down by his receivers too many times last week in their loss to the Bears. If the Patriots are going to be able to get off the field, they'll need White to continue what he's been doing, giving interior guards nightmares while causing quick pressure up the middle. White seems due for a multi-sack performance one of these weeks. After starting the season off with four sacks in the first two games, he hasn't registered another in four contests.
Wide receivers – Last Sunday's loss was not without the highlights from Kayshon Boutte and Pop Douglas, who both scored their first career touchdowns and showed growing chemistry with Maye. But the team needs more from the others. Kendrick Bourne saw his workload increase and he should be knocking on the door of a standout welcome-back kind of game, but rookie Ja'Lynn Polk caught just one pass on four targets. Jerod Mayo said earlier this week he was impressed with Boutte, Douglas and Bourne but needs more from the other receivers and that Polk needed to "get over the mental hump." Polk showed good chemistry with Maye this summer, this could be a good game to get him on track.
Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence hasn't seemed to be able to get the Jags back on track since his ankle injury in 2023 and the team's 1-5 start has many concerned. There should be enough talent around him and it appeared like they might get a breakthrough in Week 5 when Lawrence threw for 371 yards against the Colts in their only win of the season. Lawrence has the pedigree and the weaponry around him to move the ball and put up points, and despite last week's 234-yard passing performance in a loss to the Bears, the Patriots defense will need their best effort since Week 1 to shut him down.
Travis Etienne & Tank Bigsby – It was a brief appearance for Etienne last week as he continues to battle a hamstring injury, and neither D'Ernest Johnson nor Tank Bigsby were able to be very productive in his absence for the rest of the game. However, like Lawrence, the Jags rushing attack is just one game removed from a decent performance that included a 65-yard rushing touchdown by Bigsby. Those were the plays that got the Patriots in trouble last week against the Texans. No matter who is carrying the ball the Patriots need to get their 27th-ranked DVOA rushing defense in order.
Brian Thomas – Brian Thomas is off to an explosive start to his rookie season with 25 catches for 424 yards and three touchdowns, including an 85-yard touchdown catch-and-run against the Colts. Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are nice complementary pieces also capable of delivering the big plays. That's another growing concern for the Patriots defense. Christian Gonzalez was critical of his performance last week against Houston, he could see some snaps against Thomas. The biggest key is to prevent the big passing plays that all three of Jacksonville's receivers are more than capable of making.
Travon Walker & Josh Hines-Allen: The Jaguars have the second-lowest blitz rate in the NFL per Next Gen Stats and send just four rushers at the fifth-highest rate, leaning on their two best edge rushers Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen to bring the heat. The duo is far and away their biggest pass-rushing threats, combining for 45 QB pressures and 7.5 sacks. After them, it's a big drop off to Arik Armstead's eight QB pressures and one sack. This again puts a major focus on the Patriots tackles as it did last week with Houston's edge rushers who provided the most pressure of anyone on the Texans defense. Tre Jacobs is starting to stack some consistent starts, but the left tackle position remains in injury flux. If the Jags are going to get after Maye it will most likely be off the edges with Walker and Hines-Allen.
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