As difficult as it is to stomach the Patriots six-game losing streak, rookie QB Drake Maye brings some intrigue and production to the passing game offensively.
With the Patriots trying to build a foundation for the head coach Jerod Mayo era this season, Maye's development is the most important aspect of New England's rebuild. Although the passing offense has woken up a bit with Maye as the starter over the last two games, the goal isn't to be better than the 29th-ranked passing offense in drop-back EPA through the first five weeks. Instead, we want to see Maye help elevate the offense into a viable unit that can be among the NFL's elite someday.
That isn't a fair bar right now given that the Patriots are still rebuilding Maye's supporting cast, but at some point, that's the expectation. As we load data into the spreadsheet with every Maye start, we'll eventually have a large enough sample size to compare Maye to the rest of the league. For now, we have 82 drop-backs to evaluate the rookie's performance. Although that's too small a sample to make sweeping proclamations, we have a film review to write today.
Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 32 drop-backs in the last two weeks, Maye currently ranks 22nd in expected points added per drop-back (+0.05), 18th in drop-back success rate (45.6%), and 16th in completion percentage over expectation (+1.3). He's also tied for third with four deep completions and tied for fifth with three big-time throws.
With seven explosive pass plays in two starts, the Pats have already surpassed their total in their first five games with Jacoby Brissett (6). Maye's turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%) is higher than Brissett's (3.5%), but that's the give-and-take you have with a young playmaker.
As for my charting, Maye once again was a net-positive player for the Patriots in London. After reviewing the film, Maye had 11 plus plays to nine minus plays. Last week, he was 12 pluses to nine misses (23 pluses to 18 minus plays overall). It's a good sign that Maye is trending in the right direction so early on in his NFL career, especially considering that there are obvious issues with the team around him at 1-6.
From this perspective, the most compelling aspect of Maye's film in the early going is that he's mainly winning in structure. In the audio breakdown above, you'll see that nine of his 11 positively graded plays were within the framework of the offense, like finding his answers against pressure and going through progressions to find the open receiver. That's sustainable offense that they can replicate each week. We all know Maye is a great athlete, but it's more impressive to see his physical traits shine while operating on time from the pocket.
In terms of areas of improvement, most of Maye's downgraded plays are errant throws. Maye's inconsistent accuracy has been a knock on him since college, as he'll sometimes spray throws to open receivers. Mostly, it relates to his feet being aligned with his eyes and possibly a still elongated throwing motion causing some loss of control on the ball.
As for offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, the play-calling could do more to help unlock the passing game. It's difficult to decipher how much a patchwork offensive line is holding AVP back schematically, but one example is that their play-action plays aren't generating any easy throws. Route spacing and marrying designs to their run actions to create conflict in the defense seem to be the biggest issues contributing to Maye going 3-of-6 for 17 yards off play-action on Sunday.
AVP did add three pistol alignments for us this week, where rather than being offset when the quarterback is in the shotgun, the running back is behind the quarterback. The pistol allows the offense to have similar advantages as being under center, but Maye, who ran the pistol at North Carolina, is more comfortable because he doesn't need to execute under-center footwork. Hopefully, we'll see more of that moving forward.
There's zero doubt that the Patriots offense is more explosive with Maye. They've also been slightly more efficient and are out-scoring the offense from the first five weeks (18.5 PPG to 12.4 PPG). However, until they become more consistent in all aspects, there's still a ceiling to this offense, even with a more dynamic playmaker at quarterback.
Here is a review of the Patriots defense and quick-hit film notes After Further Review.
Patriots Defense Review: Middle of the Field Causing Biggest Problems Defensively
Moving over to the defense, head coach Jerod Mayo's comments that the Patriots are playing "soft" right now is the lead story with the team coming off Sunday's game in London.
Coach Mayo spoke about an old football cliche: tough teams run the ball, stop the run, and cover kicks. After a game where his offense ran for 38 yards, his defense allowed 171 rushing yards, and his special teams surrendered a 96-yard punt return TD, it's an understandable takeaway. Now, we can debate the approach of saying that publicly and why that is currently the case, but the proof is right there for everyone to see.
Defensively, the numbers aren't pretty for the Patriots when it comes to defending the middle of the field. Without three pillars to their interior defense, the Pats have dropped off completely between the numbers sans Christian Barmore, Ja'Whaun Bentley, and Jabrill Peppers. Looking at the passing game, New England is tied for 31st in yards per attempt allowed (8.8) and is 29th in expected points added per pass between the numbers (+0.29). Since Bentley's injury in Week 2, the Pats are 24th in rush EPA allowed (they were ninth-best in their first two games).
To be clear, it's never the goal to post lowlights or bad stats about the team. We always try to steer the ship toward the positives, but the bottom line is that the Patriots linebacker play at the second level of their defense has not been up to their usual standards, while opposing offenses are hitting plays between the numbers at all three levels of the defense almost every week. Although it's fair to point to execution, there are also scheme or coaching-related issues.
For example, opposing offenses seem to be a step ahead of the Patriots schemes at the moment. Above, QB Trevor Lawrence checks Jacksonville into a zone windback run when he gets a read on the defensive pre-snap. Lawrence sees that New England is rotating its safeties by having Marte Mapu blitz off the right edge while S Kyle Dugger drops back into the middle of the field. Lawrence sets up a run into the safety rotation, and it's a nine-yard gain right through the teeth of the defense.
At times, offenses have easy answers to the Patriots pressure schemes. In this clip, the Pats run a creeper pressure, which is when they blitz defenders who usually drop into coverage and drop typical pass-rushers from a standard defensive shell. With LB Jahlani Tavai and nickel CB Marcus Jones blitzing, pass-rusher Joshua Uche drops off the edge to form a six-man zone distribution. Although the blitz creates free runners, Lawrence has the quick outlet to the back. After a missed tackle, it's a 26-yard gain.
Lastly, the Patriots defense continues to struggle in base personnel. New England is allowing the third-most yards per play when they're in base defense (6.2), which they play at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (41.6%). For comparison, the Pats only played base defense on 24.7% of their defensive plays last season, allowing 3.7 yards per play. In short, they're playing more heavy personnel and giving up a lot of yards.
As we warned against in last week's gameplan, the Jaguars had the repeat play giving the Patriots problems ready to go for when they put base personnel on the field. The play is a post-dig combination against zone coverage. This time, it appears the Pats are in cover-three, and when the post safety (Mapu) helps to the second-level dig, CB Christain Gonzalez is out-leveraged against the deep post by speedy rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
In all, Jags QB Trevor Lawrence was 10-of-10 for 157 yards when the Patriots played zone coverage on Sunday. When the Pats were in man-to-man, Lawrence was just 5-of-10 for 36 yards – a difference of 15.7 yards per attempt (zone) compared to 3.6 YPA vs. man. From this perspective, the Patriots zone structures aren't productive because they don't have the personnel to cover the middle of the field, whether that's at the linebacker level, which is being exposed, or at safety to keep plays in front.
Right now, the middle of the Patriots defense isn't stout, and offenses are attacking that weakness to expose it each and every week.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Jags After Further Review
Offense
- The biggest issues with the run-blocking that produced -2 yards before contact was second-level defenders shooting gaps against outside zone and compressing pullers with aggressive downhill triggers. Even with Maye at QB, defenses still tee off on the Pats run game. The Jags had their backside linebackers scream downhill when they read run, and until the Pats start making them pay with play-action, it will continue.
- Rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk had his hands on all three of his targets. Although none were charted officially as drops, those were three contested targets that Polk was advertised as being able to catch. Maye threw a high but catchable ball on a boot-action out, brought Polk back into the safety on a corner route vs. cover two (this was on Maye), and the Pats WR was well covered on a crosser. He also slipped coming out of his break on a whip route that would've made it a seven-point game on a two-point try. Again, you'd like to see Polk make a play for his quarterback on occasion, but the targets were highly contested.
- TE Hunter Henry is truly Maye's best friend. He has a great feel for how to settle into zone voids on the stick/option routes (Hooper didn't do the same on a 4th QTR target), made a play for his QB on the seam-splitter, and works extremely well off-script to uncover when Maye goes into playground mode (Kelce-lite in this area). Henry has 11 catches on 14 targets for 133 yards and a score with Maye as QB1.
- WR Kendrick Bourne had some chances that will hopefully hit soon. He had a would-be completion prevented by Josh Hines-Allen jumping offside, was open on an in cut on third down on the second drive, open on a shallow crosser late, and open on the 14-yard out they did connect on. Those two will start connecting once they've logged some reps together.
- Although there wasn't much there, RB Rhamondre Stevenson looked a little rusty with his reads at times. There were a few cutback lanes on duo schemes that Stevenson usually hits to bounce it to the B or C gaps. Stevenson did make a nice block on a screen design for KJ Osborn and had a solid 11-yard gun run (trap scheme) on the opening drive.
- LT Trey Jacobs has some swing tackle potential but he has one rep a game where he's late/stalls out of his stance and needs to get his hands up to establish first contact. Jacobs has good length and a solid punch, but he invites rushers into his body with his low hand carriage, leading to some issues with power. Overall, Jacobs allowed four hurries.
- RG Sidy Sow struggled in pass protection with a team-high five pressures allowed. Sow had issues with Arik Armstead's long arm/bull rush, which led to a hit and two hurries. The Jags also got him on a few schemed pressures (three-man stunt and an overload pressure). Sow is struggling to anchor and isn't playing with the same power in the run game as his rookie season.
- C Ben Brown was a beat late to diagnose two stunts that led to a hit and a hurry. Overall, he has done a nice job and hasn't had any snap issues. This also was a down game for LG Michael Jordan, who allowed a QB hit, two hurries, and had issues in the run game. Between Jordan and Sow, the Pats guards struggled at times as run blockers.
- RT Mike Onwenu had a strong performance against Jags edge rusher Travon Walker, allowing only one hurry (sack was on Maye). The Pats are making it tough on Onwenu by toggling him between right guard and right tackle. But he did his job in pass pro this week. As a run blocker, Onwenu and Sow got split on a double-team, and Walker got upfield on him to shut down an outside zone run. Onwenu is still much better on the inside in the run game.
- QB Pressures: Sow (hit, four hurries), Jacobs (four hurries), Jordan (hit, two hurries), Brown (hit, hurry), Onwenu (hurry), Robinson (hurry). The team pressure rate was 40.5%.
Defense
- The Patriots defense missed 10 tackles, one short of tying a season-high, and had just a 19% pressure rate. The Jags controlled the line of scrimmage. These elements point to why HC Jerod Mayo said the team is "soft" right now, while it also speaks to the fundamentals of the defense.
- LB Jahlani Tavai is a good player. He's being forced to play slightly more off the ball (a six percent increase from 2023) and is at the point of attack without Bentley. Still, he missed two tackles, including on a 13-yard run, and got beat on a 24-yard completion and a 13-yard reception. Tavai is having a tough time out there while taking on an expanded role.
- CB Christian Gonzalez has given up big plays in two straight games. As shown above, Gonzo was in a tough spot on the 58-yard bomb to BTJ, playing a cover three technique without safety help on the post, and he did his best to get the ball out at the catch point. But it's still the first explosive completion of the year into his coverage. Gonzalez also allowed a 13-yard crosser and a two-point conversion. The Jags first-round rookie is a good young receiver with blazing speed, but those were big plays in the game that didn't go Gonzalez's way.
- DE Keion White's playing time is decreasing. White played a season-low 69% of the snaps this week because he's playing less in the Pats base fronts for sturdier interior run defenders. He logged a hurry on the final third down of the game, rushing over the guard. White also had a nice run stuff on a jet sweep toward his side and made a coverage stop on a screen to Engram as an edge defender. Although he made a few plays, the defense desperately needs to get White going again. They need him to be the force he was in the season's first two weeks.
- LB/S Marte Mapu's versatility and physicality when he's playing downhill are solid building blocks. However, he's still learning how to recognize things to play to his athleticism. Mapu was baited out of his assignment on a play-action crosser (13 yards), was caught covering grass on Lawrence's 11-yard scramble on third-and-8, and it's unclear if he was assignment sound on the bomb to BTJ. Mapu is a good athlete and a physical hitter. If he can improve his mental processing, he can be a useful player for this defense. He just needs to trust his eyes more.
- NT Davon Godchaux is getting game-planned now as a run defender. That'll happen when there aren't other defenders in the front for teams to worry about, like Barmore and Judon. Godchaux is getting double-teamed, pinned/whamed, and seeing different run actions to get him off his spots. The Jags made him sort through a lot of stuff this week, and he wasn't his usual stout self in certain instances.
- DT Jaquelin Roy continued to have some good moments with three run stuffs, including a fourth-down stop. It looked like LG Ezra Cleveland might've tripped on Lawrence's left foot on the fourth down play, but Roy still discarded Cleveland to make the stop. Roy is their best interior run defender besides Godchaux right now, but even he had some issues early on.
- LB Anfernee Jennings had a team-high four run stuffs with a great play to string out BTJ on an end around and a blown up counter scheme where he got underneath the puller. Jennings got sucked in on a duo scheme where the back bounced it out to his side for a first-down run, but he was noticeable and a net-positive on a down day for the run defense.
- My read on Thomas Jr.'s touchdown in the second quarter was that the Patriots were in box rules with four defenders over a condensed bunch. Typically, that means the player in Marcus Jones's spot would have the first receiver breaking into the middle of the field, meaning Jones should've covered BTJ. Instead, he and S Kyle Dugger both covered Kirk, leaving Thomas Jr. wide open on the busted coverage.
- S Kyle Dugger had some nice moments with a batted pass on a blitz, a run TFL shooting his gap on a wham scheme, and a coverage stop on a screen. Dugger is doing his part.
- Coverage: Gonzalez (2/2/71 yards/two-point play), Tavai (3/2/37 yards), Uche (2/2/26 yards), Mapu (3/3/24 yards), Elliss (2/2/16 yards), M. Jones (5/3/12 yards), Dugger (1/1/7 yards), J. Jones (1/0/0).
- QB Pressures: Dugger (hurry), White (hurry), Ekaule (hurry), M. Jones (hurry). Run stuffs: Jennings (4), Roy (3), Ekuale (3), Elliss (2), Gonzalez, Dugger, Mathis, White, Mapu, Godchaux, Wise, McMillan (1 each).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
