The Patriots added multiple starters in free agency to a defense that took an unexpected step back during the 2024 season.
New England's defense finished a disappointing 30th in DVOA in the 2024 season. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and personnel chief Eliot Wolf made a point to upgrade the defense this offseason, adding prized free-agent DT Milton Williams, edge rusher Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, and CB Carlton Davis, among others.
The focus in the 2025 NFL Draft primarily shifts to improving the offense, specifically left tackle, and continuing to add playmakers to QB Drake Maye's supporting cast. That said, there's a scenario where a dominant pass-rusher is the overwhelming best player available. If that's the case, it's hard to envision the Pats passing on a blue-chip talent to address a position of need. Plus, after ranking last in sacks (28) and 29th in team pressure rate a year ago, one could make a strong case that New England still needs that finishing piece defensively in a traditional sack artist off.
The electric pass-rusher projected to be a top-five pick that we're discussing is Penn State star Abdul Carter. As the latest Nittany Lion to rock the cutoff No. 11 jersey, Carter has drawn comparisons to Cowboys All-Pro Micah Parsons, while Carter himself says that he modeled his game after future Hall of Famer Von Miller. Either comparison fits for the 6-foot-3, 250-pound pass-rusher, who could go as early as the No. 1 overall pick.
Last season, Carter ranked in the top 10 in the nation with 52 quarterback pressures and 12.0 sacks during the regular season, then added to that total with 14 more pressures in three postseason contests. Among qualified pass-rushers, Carter's elite win rate of 22.6% was fourth-best in the FBS. The 21-year-old has dynamic play speed, bend, and fluidity to challenge blockers with a variety of different pass-rush moves.
For the Patriots, the only question with Carter is whether he will be available at the fourth overall pick. Some believe he's still in play for the Titans as the first-overall pick, while other reports indicate that the Browns have zeroed in on Carter at No. 2. There's a scenario where the top two picks are quarterbacks Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, which could lead to Carter falling to New England. If the top three goes Ward-Sanders-Hunter, then it's not inconceivable to think that Carter would be on the board for the Patriots.
Given that it's not totally out of the question that Carter is available, let's break down the tape on what makes him a lock top-five draft pick.
Pass Rush
To better understand Carter's game, we'll begin by discussing his foundational traits as a pass rusher, where he makes the biggest impact.
With a basketball background, Carter sometimes looks like Allen Iverson crossing over defenders. His first-step explosiveness allows him to convert speed to power, but his ability to win with pure speed sets him apart. He has mastered an inside-out crossover, a ghost rush, and a two-hand swipe move that allows him to turn a tight corner, setting up inside moves.
Outside Moves
For example, Carter's most dynamic rush is his inside-out crossover with a rip move finisher. Going back to our Iverson comparison, Carter is going to hit the right tackle with an inside fake to get Oregon's Ajani Cornelius, a projected early day-three pick, to transition his weight to his inside foot. Then, Carter smoothly crosses over to Cornelius's outside shoulder, uses the rip move to clear his frame, and bends around the corner for a QB hit.
The other move Carter goes to frequently is a two-hand swipe, using his excellent get-off and bend. In the clip above, Carter is rushing over top-50 prospect Donovan Jackson at left tackle. The Penn State product is first off the ball and challenges Jackson's edge immediately, then comes with the two-hand swipe to discard Jackson's punch. From there, you see that special bend and closing burst to register a sack.
Next, the future NFL star has adopted Von Miller's patented "ghost" rush, which is when the rusher fakes like he's about to bull rush/long arm the tackle and then pulls it back to dip around the corner. Above, Carter gets Jackson with the ghost move, forcing Ohio State QB Will Howard to climb the pocket where his teammate is waiting to log a quarterback hit.
Yes, Carter can convert speed-to-power, which will come in handy to set up his more dynamic rush moves. This time, he's rushing over the left tackle, and you can see the raw power he generates to bull rush the left tackle into the backfield for a pressure.
Inside Moves
Since he can regularly threaten the outside edge, Carter sets himself up for wins on inside moves as a constant two-way threat to get around tackles.
Here, he is working against Cornelius on the right side again. Remember, he already beat Cornelius with his inside-out crossover move earlier in the game. In this clip, Cornelius sets out to meet Carter at the junction point, so the Penn State star simply stutters/fakes outside and then crosses over inside to draw a hold while also chasing down the quarterback to help get him the QB on the ground – ya, that's the good stuff.
Carter is also dynamite on T/E stunt schemes, where he's almost unblockable as a looper. Above, he gets the pick from the inside rusher, who temporarily occupies two blockers. When the left guard passes off the penetrator, Carter is already dipping underneath him to draw a hold on the inside wrap. There's just not much the guard can do there.
QB Spy/In-Line Reps
Lastly, Carter's experience playing inside linebacker also allows him to rush over the interior offensive line or from off the ball in a two-point stance, hence the Parsons comparisons.
One schematic wrinkle that Penn State would use against mobile quarterbacks was standing Carter up over the guard/center. By doing so, the blocking scheme had to account for Carter, with at least one blocker opening to Carter at the snap, creating one-on-one reps elsewhere. Penn State would then have Carter spy the quarterback, and he could match scrambling QBs in space with his dynamic playmaking gear.
Although the quarterbacks he faced in college aren't on the MVP's level, there's a certain off-script artist in Buffalo that Carter could chase around twice a year for the Patriots.
Run Defense
As for his ability to stop the run, Carter's detractors will say he doesn't have the mass or length to hold up against NFL power. But, frankly, that's nitpicky.
Like any edge rusher who wins with pure speed, Carter will get caught at times by bigger blocks for the occasional loss. However, his quickness into gaps, ability to generate power with his explosiveness, and low center of gravity make him very slippery in the run game as well.
Carter isn't afraid to do the dirty work by winning with power to either hold his gap or play through blocks to make stops. Above, Boise State is in a two-tight end set with Carter on the far left side of the formation. By firing into the tight end's block with a solid upward strike, Carter gets inside the tight end to force the ball carrier to bounce, where a host of teammates are waiting for Ashton Jeanty. That's him doing his 1/11th.
The Penn State product can also slip inside blockers to log run stuffs. In this example, he uses a similar technique to gain favorable leverage with his initial strike and then dips underneath the left tackle to clog the inside lane. His most common wins in the run game come when he's able to slip inside blocks with his first-step quickness and leverage.
Carter's ability to penetrate and slip blockers led to 24 run stops last season, tied for ninth among EDGEs, so he does make plays vs. the run.
Bottom Line
The bottom line with Carter is pretty straightforward: he's the second-best prospect in the draft with the potential to be an All-Pro caliber player.
As a team looking for blue-chip talent at the top of the roster, the Patriots shouldn't be choosy about the fact that Carter plays defense. Ideally, this draft would feature premium talent at left tackle, like last year's class with Joe Alt, for example. But the offensive talent isn't at that level this year in the top 10, sans Hunter, who would likely be a Giant in this scenario.
Throughout the offseason, Vrabel and Wolf have been clear that they want to draft the best player available rather than focusing on need. Wolf even acknowledged that they might've focused too much on need in last year's draft, which might've been to a fault outside the first round: "The best player available is going to be the way it is," Wolf said last month.
Carter would get fans even more excited about the Patriots defense next season. Imagine him rushing the quarterback on third down with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Keion White – a potentially dominant front. Believe it or not, Carter is just scratching the surface of his potential as an edge rusher because he began his college career as an inside linebacker, so he's relatively inexperienced at EDGE. He has a slight false step out of his stance that, if corrected, would make him even more dynamic as a speed rusher, which is crazy to think about.
That said, before you call me crazy, hear me out. One scenario where the Patriots would pass on Carter is if a team offers a boatload of draft picks for the No. 4 pick. For example, the Texans traded from No. 12 to No. 3 to select stud edge rusher Will Anderson in the 2023 draft, sending No. 12, No. 33, and a future first and third-round pick to Arizona to move up nine spots. Suppose the Patriots got an offer like that for Carter and then could move down to a more comfortable range to draft a player on offense, say OT Armand Membou or WR Tetairoa McMillan, while stockpiling picks to add more talent. Would you do it?
From this perspective, that trade package would be enticing, but the Texans are a good example of how hitting on elite talent in the draft can accelerate a rebuild. Houston drafted QB C.J. Stroud, All-Pro CB Derek Stingley, and Anderson in consecutive drafts. Since hitting on the quarterback and blue-chippers on defense, Houston has won a playoff game in back-to-back years. Theoretically, the Pats could have a similar trio as franchise pillars: QB Drake Maye, All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez, and Carter – the future would be bright in Foxboro.
When it comes to acquiring elite talent, it's never wrong to draft a player like Carter, who would complete the Patriots defense.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
