The Patriots postseason will begin sooner than anyone in New England expected, including the Patriots. But the disappointment of last week's loss to Miami that put the team in the wild card round must subside if the Patriots are to advance past the upstart Tennessee Titans Saturday night.
The Titans have basically been two teams this season. The first under Marcus Mariota saw Tennessee go 2-4 while scoring in a total of just 55 points over the last five games. That's when head coach Mike Vrabel inserted former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill into the mix, and Tennessee finished 7-3 with a big-play attack that has been as productive as any down the stretch.
Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots top corner and one of the best in the league, views Tannehill as the difference.
"I think he's gotten better," Gilmore said of the veteran. "He's throwing some great balls and he's seeing the defense very well. He's the reason they're where they are right now."
The Titans averaged 30.4 points per game in the 10 games with Tannehill at the helm, the fourth-best total in the league. They average 9.6 yards per pass attempt and he Tannehill boasts a 117.5 passer rating, both tops in the league. In the red zone, the Titans converted 86.7 percent of their trips into touchdowns.
"Probably as explosive as anybody we've seen in a while," Bill Belichick said earlier in the week. "These guys are tough. They're a well-balanced team, had a lot of success in the last two-thirds of the season. Can see why."
So, how do the Patriots go about dealing with the Titans explosiveness? Obviously Gilmore wasn't willing to divulge any of those game plan secrets but it's worth a try as we examine some of the potential matchups.
Tannehill has relied heavily on his playmakers, starting with mammoth running back Derrick Henry. The NFL's rushing champ piled up 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground (he added two as a receiver). Clearly stopping Henry will be a priority for the defense, as Vrabel likes to keep Tannehill's pass attempts down by running the ball and staying out of long-yardage situations.
But assuming Henry has his share of production, dealing with dynamic wideouts Corey Davis and rookie A.J. Brown won't be easy. Slot receiver Adam Humphries has an ankle injury that has kept him out recently so his status for Saturday is iffy. Tajae Sharpe is also capable of contributing, as are tight ends Jonnu Smith and Andrew Firsker.
That's a lot for the secondary to contend with, and it will start with Gilmore. Despite a subpar effort in the finale against Miami, he's still among the best in the business and it might make sense for him to take Davis and allow J.C. Jackson to deal with Brown while getting safety help from Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon.
Jonathan Jones should get Humphries or Sharpe while Patrick Chung will have his hands full with Smith. Terrence Brooks and Jason McCourty missed the finale with groin injuries, so the depth in the secondary is a concern given the bevy of options at Tannehill's disposal.
Brown enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign with 52 catches for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. At 6-1, 226 pounds he has some size to fight for the ball but also possesses dangerous speed and is gifted with the ball in his hands.
"Brown has gotten better and better as the season has gone on," Gilmore said. "He's hard to tackle once he gets the ball in his hands. That's one thing that sticks out about him. You have to get him on the ground if he does catch it. Tannehill is putting the ball right there. He's making some big throws."
While Davis' numbers are pedestrian (43 catches, 601 yards, 2 TDs), Gilmore knows what he is capable of. The two hooked up last season when Davis got the better of the matchup by grabbing seven passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. They also tangled quite a bit in Nashville in August during some joint practices.
"Davis is strong. He can run any route. He can make big catches," Gilmore said. "He's a good receiver and he's having a good year."
The Titans offer a lot to prepare for, and how Belichick chooses to employ his troops will be interesting to watch.
Patriots.com's Mike Dussault shares his players to watch during the Patriots AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup against the Tennessee Titans at Gillette Stadium on Saturday, January 4, 2019.
Tom Brady, QB: With Brady's status uncertain after this season, this could be his last game as a Patriot and coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins, the GOAT should play with something to prove. Will it be enough when the Patriots offense has struggled to find consistency all season? If anyone can put together a vintage performance, it's Brady.
Devin McCourty, S: The veteran safety has led the secondary over the last 10 seasons and now faces one of his toughest challenges of the season – the Titans efficient and explosive aerial attack. Keeping the safeties and corners all on the same page will be critical against a team that puts up big catch-and-runs every week.
Danny Shelton, DL: Derrick Henry is a major problem, leading the league in rushing and opening up all the explosive play action downfield strikes that can change the game. With the majority of his runs going right up the middle of the line, it will be up to Shelton to control the center and not let Henry break through.
Kyle Van Noy, OLB: Van Noy hasn't recorded a sack in four games and will be needed to play a major role against the Titans, not only cracking his cold streak but setting the edge against a very tough ground game. After starting the season as one of the best front seven players in the league, Van Noy should be looking to rekindle that form in the playoffs if the Patriots are to make any kind of run.
Stephon Gilmore, CB: Gilmore is coming off one of his most disappointing performances of the season and now gets an even tougher challenge with the Titans two explosive receivers, AJ Brown and Corey Davis. After Davis got the best of Gilmore last year he should be extremely motivated to take at least one of those receiving threats out of the game.
Ryan Tannehill, QB: 7-3 since taking over for Marcus Mariota, Tannehill is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has just two interceptions in his last seven games. That kind of safe play and efficiency is exactly what has hurt the Patriots defense the most over the years. Tannehill just needs to continue that play and make smart decisions in the face of the Patriots blitzes and the Titans will have a good chance to win.
Derrick Henry, RB: The NFL's leading rusher is a mountain of a man and nearly impossible to bring down. There's no more direct route to a Titans victory than getting Henry going against a Patriots defense that had their struggles against the run this year but have been better of late. Henry is a key piece to the rest of the offense. Stop him and everything else gets easier.
AJ Brown, WR: The explosive rookie led the team with over 1,000 receiving yards by averaging over 20 yards-per-catch. That kind of big play ability can change games in an instant and, while Stephon Gilmore could find himself on Corey Davis, it will be up to guys like Jonathan Jones and JC Jackson to prevent Brown from breaking the game open.
Harold Landry, LB: The former Boston College Eagle led the Titans with nine sacks and 34 pressures. He's not an overwhelming pass rushing force, but he's representative of what the Titans defense is – a versatile front that can mix and match and keep offenses on their toes. While he primarily plays on the defensive right, his speed off the edge will be a challenge for Marcus Cannon when he goes to the other side.
Logan Ryan, CB: The former Patriot has 18 passes defended this season and continues to be a versatile member of the secondary who will blitz the quarterback while also seeing plenty of Julian Edelman. He has a career high 4.5 sacks this season and is sure to be sent after Tom Brady a couple times in this game. He picked up a sack of Brady in the 2018 matchup and will be a major piece of Tennessee's gameplan.
