Foxborough, MA – With the afternoon setting up for a perfect football weekend in Foxborough, the Patriots fell in a disappointing 45-27 loss to the Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Until the game kicked off at 4:25 p.m. ET, this was a picture-perfect weekend for Patriots fans. On Saturday, New England inducted TE Rob Gronkowski into the team's Hall of Fame. Tom Brady, who called the game for Fox, attended. The Super Bowl LI champions were honored, with the Patriots Hall of Fame trio in attendance (Brady, Edelman, Gronkowski). Unfortunately, the current team didn't hold up its end of the bargain.
On the surface, the easiest thing to point to is the turnover margin. The Patriots were minus-4 in the turnover battle against the Packers, and were already 31st in turnover margin coming into Week 9 (-7). Green Bay was one of the best defenses at taking the ball away, ranking second with 15 takeaways, and they forced four more turnovers while the Pats defense produced none. The other theme was failing to limit the Packers explosive passing attack. New England missed on that key as well, allowing Packers QB Jordan Love to complete six 20-plus yard pass attempts (seven total explosive pass plays).
Ultimately, the Patriots need more from their best players, with QB Drake Maye throwing three first-half interceptions to put the team in an early deficit, and a tough outing for star CB Christian Gonzalez. Playing the NFC North division has also proven to be a real challenge. The Patriots are 0-2 against the NFC North, with another date on tap next week against the Lions (6-2) in Munich. Captain Kevin Byard III called it a measuring-stick game, and the outcomes against the Bears (30-24 loss) and Packers say it all about where the Pats currently measure up against arguably the best division in the NFL.
"When your best players don't play well, you don't have much of a chance in this league. So, we expect a lot more," head coach Mike Vrabel said. "Certainly, those are the keys (ball security, limiting big plays on defense). We're in this together. We are. We're going to get them back, and we're going to get ready to travel and figure out who's healthy and put 48 guys out there that care and that want to try to exhibit some sort of identity. We'll see how we respond."
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots fall to 5-4 in a loss to the Packers in Week 9.
1. Patriots Defense Doesn't Rise to the Occasion in Sunday's Loss to the Packers
The Patriots struggles defensively have been bubbling under the surface. Entering Week 9, New England was 11th in DVOA, 15th in scoring defense, and 16th in EPA per play. Slightly above-average isn't terrible, but watching this defense every week leaves you wanting more from a unit with good players at all three levels.
New England came into this game down top wideouts A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and Romeo Doubs (shoulder, IR). The Pats also have been ravaged by injuries at guard, with their two starters, Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Mike Onwenu (ankle), on injured reserve. Maye mostly keeps the offense afloat, but it's not fair to expect the young QB with a shorthanded supporting cast to carry this team every week.
With Gonzalez as a true shutdown corner, the Patriots cornerback trio played championship-caliber football in the playoffs last winter. We've also seen standout DTs Milton Williams and Christian Barmore wreck games, S Craig Woodson looked like a year-two breakout candidate, S Kevin Byard III and OLB Dre'Mont Jones were added in free agency, and linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are quality starters.
On Sunday, the Patriots allowed a Vrabel-era high 45 points. So, what's missing for this group? That's a question I've been trying to answer, whether from the film or from speaking with the leaders on defense. On Sunday, Jones offered insight into the defense's struggles by crediting the Packers with a talented offense and a good scheme, which is valid.
"When it comes down to it, that's a great team. They know how to scheme stuff up, but we gotta play our (brand of) football. First off, we gotta get turnovers on the defensive side and then also play to our identity. You know, playing fast," Jones said. "Turnovers, that's the first thing. Playing to our standard by making plays, eliminating X plays, and things like that."
One thought is that the Patriots coverage system is very disguise-heavy. They don't want to tip their hand pre-snap, which leads to man-coverage corners playing off the line of scrimmage and exotic post-snap rotations. On Sunday, the Pats ran 14 drop-backs in man coverage (42.4%), and Love was 10-of-12 for 166 passing yards and two touchdowns, so their bread-and-butter approach let them down.
Still, could all the disguising be bogging down the secondary? Rather than playing it straight up, there's a lot of scheming in the back end that's good in theory but might be causing issues. In the end, it always comes down to better execution, but the Patriots defense isn't playing up to its capabilities right now.
2. Injuries Continue to Pile Up for the Patriots in Loss to the Packers
The last big-picture item we'll hit on is another game where injuries are a major storyline. The Patriots lost CB Carlton Davis III (knee), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee), and LG Ben Brown (knee) to injuries on Sunday. Although there was positive news from LT Will Campbell, who said he would've returned to the game if the score was closer, it's another week where the Patriots came out of the game with several notable injuries. Frankly, it's crazy to see this team's injury luck this season, with a trip to Germany next week expediting the recovery process.
3. Patriots QB Drake Maye Struggles vs. Packers Top-10 Pass Defense
The Packers defense came into the week ranked third in pass DVOA (schedule-adjusted), eighth in passing yards allowed, and 10th in pass EPA – a good pass defense by every metric.
Although we're not dipping our toes into the schedule discourse, and his supporting cast is riddled with injuries, Maye did not play well on Sunday, even if the situation is calling for him to put the Superman cape on for New England to be competitive. My No. 1 key for the Patriots offense was remaining patient against a Packers pass defense that doesn't give up many big plays. Green Bay ranked seventh-best in explosive pass play rate and was only allowing a 25% completion rate on deep pass attempts (4-of-16).
Even though that's Maye's specialty, it's a tough defense to throw deep on consistently. Rather than playing a patient game with calculated deep shots, the Pats QB's average target depth was 12.3 air yards. Plus, all three of Maye's interceptions came on throws over 18 air yards, trying to hit receivers downfield into the teeth of the Packers split-safety zone coverages. According to NextGen Stats, Green Bay played an 81.1% zone coverage rate, 51.4% split-safety zones, with the Packers majoring in quarters coverages.
"We felt like they were good in the back end, especially the safety positions, they're ball aware. They've hunted a lot of turnovers, eyes on the quarterback, in zone coverage. I knew that coming into it and forced the first one," Maye said. "They jumped some crossers and just got to see it, and that's on me. And from there, we also, we did hit some big ones, so there's some give and take to it. But I think the bad ones hurt more than the good ones, unfortunately."
The Packers majored in quarters schemes where they had the backside corner locked like it was man coverage when the Patriots ran 3x1 formations. In this example, the Pats have rookie TE Eli Raridon running a backside crosser while WR Kyle Williams clears out the zone side. Maye throws late to Raridon, waiting for him to clear an underneath linebacker, and Packers S Xavier McKinney jumps the route for an interception.
Overall, Maye finished 21-of-38 for 299 passing yards, three TDs, and three INTs while producing -0.13 EPA per drop-back (25th percentile). Maye has six straight games with three-plus touchdowns, and there were some 'plus' throws that stood out (28-yard cross to Raridon, 30-yard TD to Stevenson). Still, this was a rough outing for everyone, including Maye.
4. CB Christian Gonzalez Allows Career-High 187 Receiving Yards Into His Coverage
Entering Week 9, the Patriots top cornerback hadn't allowed more than 90 receiving yards into his coverage in any game in his career. According to NextGen Stats, Gonzalez allowed 10 catches for 187 receiving yards and a touchdown into his coverage. By all accounts, this was Gonzalez's worst game as a pro.
"They just got the best of me today. I had a bad game. I'm not shaken up by it. I'm not too worried about it. I'll move on and be ready next week," Gonzalez said. "I just gotta be able to finish and make those plays. I'm right there. I just gotta make those plays."
Gonzalez allowed three catches for 82 yards and a 39-yard TD to Packers WR Christian Watson. He also allowed seven catches on seven targets for 105 yards to Packers WR Matthew Golden, the most he's allowed in a game to a single receiver. The Pats CB allowed five catches for 81 yards in zone coverage and five catches for 101 yards in man coverage. Honestly, Gonzalez's performance on Sunday was perplexing. The Packers receiver duo is legit, but it was almost like a different player was in the No. 0 jersey out there.
5. WR Mack Hollins Returns to the Lineup, WR DeMario Douglas Leads the Way
The Patriots activating the veteran wideout from injured reserve was supposed to provide a boost for the offense but one player wasn't going to swing Sunday's game in New England's favor. Hollins played 42 snaps (68.9%) vs. the Packers, tied for second among wide receivers, with Kyle Williams (47 snaps), DeMario Douglas (42 snaps), and Efton Chism III (31 snaps) also involved. Hollins caught three passes for 36 yards and scored a late touchdown in his return from a four-game injured reserve stint.
On a positive note, Douglas had his second career 100-yard receiving game with a team-high five catches for 102 yards. Douglas's 36-yard corner-post route was a beauty, turning Packers S Javon Bullard around with a nod to the corner route before breaking across the field. However, Williams struggled, failing to track a catchable deep ball over his shoulder, and he was targeted on Maye's second interception (shown above). It could be another week in Munich with this foursome until reinforcements arrive after the bye.
6. Patriots O-Line Injuries Continue, Early Pressures Part of the Story
The Patriots offensive line started its fifth different combination with Ben Brown (LG) and Matt Pryor (RG) as the starting guard tandem for the first time this season. Brown injured his knee late in the second quarter, and backup Walter Rouse replaced him for the rest of the game. Early on, Green Bay's pressure schemes seemed to be causing issues (51.2% pressure rate).
Sometimes, pressure rates skyrocket when teams are forced to drop-back pass because they're chasing the game on the scoreboard. However, the Packers scheming led to an early third-down sack (three-man stunt) and four Maye throwaways due to schemed-up pressures, including one surrendered by RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Green Bay seemed to take a page from their division rivals by bringing exotic pressures early to put the Patriots behind schedule, as the Bears did in Week 7. It's too small a sample size to call it a blueprint but it has worked twice in the last three games.
7. RB Rhamondre Stevenson Paces Pats Backfield, Leaves Game in Third Quarter
With RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness) sidelined, the Patriots are leaning heavily on lead back Rhamondre Stevenson, who played 38 snaps before exiting the game with 3:29 left in the third quarter. Stevenson was ruled out immediately with a knee injury and didn't speak post-game, but the hope is that Stevenson was ruled out so quickly because it was already 42-14, Packers. Still, the Patriots cannot afford to lose their lead back, with spell-backs Corey Kiner (10 snaps) and Lan Larison (13 snaps) as the only other options currently on the active roster. Plus, the Pats RB1 is one of their best offensive skill players. It would be a major blow to New England's offense if Stevenson misses games due to his knee injury.
8. Kickoff Return Coverage is Another Area That Needs to Improve for the Patriots
Lastly, the Patriots special teams were also shaky in Sunday's loss, allowing a 48-yard kickoff return to Packers KR Bo Melton. Green Bay didn't score on a drive that started at the 50-yard line, but the kickoff return coverage has been a little shaky lately. The Pats did get some good punting from Mitch Wishnowsky, who had four I20s, and RBs Corey Kiner and Lan Larison handled kickoff returns.
The Patriots will need to get right quickly as they head to Germany to play the Lions in Week 10. The team will fly to Munich on Wednesday night, then have two practices overseas on Thursday and Friday ahead of Sunday's game. After a disappointing effort in Sunday's loss to the Packers, the Patriots have to get right in Deutschland.
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