Santa Clara, Calif. — A cross-country trip to the Bay Area went as many expected, with the Patriots falling to the 49ers in a 30-13 loss on Sunday at Levi's Stadium.
For anyone who was realistic about where the Patriots are in their rebuild, a road contest against the defending NFC Champions ending in a 17-point loss isn't surprising. The 49ers were 10-point home favorites heading into Sunday's game, and two first-half turnovers, including a Jacoby Brissett pick-six by Niners star LB Fred Warner, wasn't New England's winning formula.
The real question following this loss isn't about how the Patriots lost on Sunday. Again, this was an expected outcome against a Super Bowl contender. Instead, the conversation turns to where head coach Jerod Mayo's team goes from here at 1-3 after the first month of the season.
This week, the scuttlebutt around the facility was about how impressive third-overall pick Drake Maye has looked behind the scenes. Maye has been getting 30% of the first-team reps in practice while also running the scout team. He has his teammates and assistant coaches singing his praises in those reps. Maye has coaches watching the practice tape back to marvel at his throws, and his teammates are chatting about how well he reads and manipulates coverages.
Despite the positive buzz, Coach Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt are standing by Brissett as their starting quarterback. On Sunday, Mayo deflected questions about a quarterback change and also said there wasn't any thought of putting Maye into Sunday's game like the head coach did when last week's loss to the Jets got out of hand. Mayo's press conference felt like the Patriots head coach was trying to manage the Maye hype, as did a report from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport earlier in the day where Rapsheet said Maye was still "a ways away from being on the field."
Although Maye could be the spark the Patriots offense desperately needs, the sense is that this decision to stick with Brissett, for now, is about what's going on around the quarterback. After back-to-back blowout losses, the feeling is this is not a stable environment to throw a roookie quarterback into, with Brissett being sacked six times while being under pressure on 53.8% of his drop-backs, per NextGen Stats.
As frustrating and tedious as it is to write every week, New Engand is going through the early growing pains of a full rebuild. Currently, they don't have the personnel to be competitive against good competition, while a young coaching staff is also finding its footing. Until there are tangible improvements, they'll take their lumps and stay the course at quarterback.
Here are eight takeaways as the Patriots drop to 1-3 on the season with a loss to the 49ers in Week 4:
1. SERVPRO Spotlight: K Joey Slye Sets Franchise Record With 63-Yard Field Goal
In the silver linings category, kicker Joey Slye set a new franchise record with a 63-yard field goal before halftime. Slye is the second kicker in the NFL to hit a 60-plus yarder this season, joining Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey. Slye broke Stephen Gostkowski's previous team record (62 yards in 2017) and later connected on a 54-yard attempt as well.
"When individual success doesn't come with a team win, it is what it is," said Slye, who wasn't too interested in the moral victory of setting a franchise record.
After a rough 2023 season, the Patriots special teams units have been a bright spot during a rocky opening month to 2024. Along with Slye's record-setting kick, LB Christian Elliss forced a fumble on the second-half kickoff that set up a Patriots touchdown. Plus, punter Bryce Baringer continued his strong start with four punts downed inside the 20-yard line, including a punt from inside the 50-yard line that special teams ace Brenden Schooler downed at the SF 7.
New England needs significantly more from the other two phases to be competitive, but the special teams are having a bounce-back year under new coordinator Jeremy Springer.
2. Calls for a Quarterback Change Likely to Continue Following Jacoby Brissett's Struggles vs. 49ers on Sunday
With the third-overall pick observing from the sideline, the Patriots passing game struggles continued in Sunday's loss to the 49ers.
Starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw for a season-high 168 yards in this one, but that's obviously not as good as it sounds. Brissett has thrown for 134.0 yards per game and lost -0.34 expected points added with a first-half pick-six and a lost fumble baked into his stats on Sunday.
Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt tried scheming around a shaky offensive line, dialing up quick-game concepts and designed rollouts in the opening script, with Brissett averaging 2.60 seconds to throw and 5.5 air yards per attempt on 39 drop-backs. However, Brissett was still sacked six times and under pressure on 53.8% of his drop-backs.
Furthermore, the 49ers defense played single-high coverage on 64.1% of the passing plays and blitzed on 33% of New England's drop-backs. Until the passing offense gives defenses reasons to back off, the Pats offense is going to see loaded boxes and single-high safeties.
Along with the strategy against a non-threatening passing offense, Brissett's three-game streak without a turnover ended with two giveaways, including a pick-six. If the veteran is going to keep the starting job, Brissett has to avoid turnovers, and the dam finally broke on Sunday.
Brissett's streak without an interception ended when 49ers star LB Fred Warner returned one to the house off the Patriots quarterback. From this perspective, this interception is all about Brissett staring down Tyquan Thornton's route on the "super" mesh-style concept. With three in-breakers to Brissett's left, Thornton is not a bad option here against a cover two zone. However, Brissett doesn't move the zone with his eye, staring down Thornton. Tyquan is open behind the second level, but Warner reads the quarterback to fall into the passing lane.
Brissett needs to start with his eyes in the middle of the field to set a trap for Warner to follow Pop and Polk's routes inside the formation. Yes, those two appear open, but they're not as open as they look because Brissett is staring down the left side the whole time. If the Pats QB starts right or in the middle, the zone would've followed him there, covering up Pop and Polk while opening the passing window to Thornton. Again, it's not a bad route to throw against this coverage. It just wasn't very good quarterbacking by Brissett.
As always, the key to good passing offense is having all facets working together: quarterback, protection, and receivers creating separation. To that end, it would be unfair to put this all on Brissett, who has shown great toughness under pressure. Still, the results are the results.
3. Pressure and Sack Numbers Continue to be Shaky for the Patriots O-Line
The Patriots went into the week as the worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL and were down to their fourth-string left tackle. As one would expect, it was a bumpy ride in Sunday's loss.
Despite a quicker average release and fewer deep throws, Brissett was still sacked six times and under pressure on 53.8% of his drop-backs. According to NextGen Stats, here was the pressure beakdown: LT Trey Jacobs (10 pressures, sack), RG Layden Robinson (2.5 sacks, nine pressures), RT Mike Onwenu (seven pressures), LG Sidy Sow (seven pressures), C Nick Leverett (six pressures).
It wasn't good, even with AVP's play-calling working around the offensive line. To make matters worse, captain David Andrews didn't return to the game after suffering a shoulder injury early in the contest. Plus, rookie OT Caedan Wallace had a walking boot and crutches in the locker room.
We'll have to watch the film to grade out the offensive line, but the NGS data was not pretty, and it never helps the O-Line when you put yourself in a 20-point hole. As we continue to discuss rookie QB Drake Maye stepping into this situation, we have to keep these numbers in mind.
4. Explosive Plays by the 49ers Prove Costly for the Patriots Defense
Although most of the talking points will be about the offense, the Patriots defense has some reoccuring issues of its own that Coach Mayo and DC DeMarcus Covington need to work out.
To the defense's credit, they held the 49ers to two field goals on their first two drives when San Fran drove the ball into the red zone, including once on a short field. However, the 49ers drove 90 yards on their opening drive thanks to three third-down conversions by QB Brock Purdy. The Pats pass-rush discipline continued to be a problem, with Purdy scrambling for two first downs and finding TE George Kittle on an off-script play for another conversion.
On the Kittle conversion, New England ran a T/E stunt where DE Deatrich Wise looped inside interior penetration from hybrid EDGE Keion White. The rush got home, but no defenders were in the area to close the pocket, with Wise and White attacking upfield. Over the last three weeks, the Pats pass rush discipline has been inconsistent, with quarterbacks extending drives by beating good initial coverage via scramble or improvising on the run.
After the opening drive, the pass rush settled in and pressured Purdy on 46.7 % of his drop-backs, a season high. However, the pass defense then surrendered five explosive plays through the air with gains of 53, 45, 38, 32, and 24 yards for the Niners offense.
The play de jour for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was a deep post-cross concept against the Patriots zone coverages. With the Pats majoring in cover three and quarters, the Niners ran two deep routes to put the deep safeties in conflict. Above, the Pats try to exchange Aiyuk's in-breaker with FS Jaylinn Hawkins jumping the second-level route and passing off the post to CB Christian Gonzalez. However, 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel runs by an out-leveraged CB Jonathan Jones on the post, and Gonzo has no chance to recover in time to the deep ball.
New England's defense deserves some credit for winning a few rounds against San Francisco's offense. The Patriots only allowed 10 second-half points, forcing a field goal, two punts, and an interception. With more from the offense, they could've made this a one-score game in the fourth quarter when the score was stuck at 27-13 for a while.
Still, the Pats defense allowed Purdy to generate +0.47 expected points added per-dropback, which ranks in the 93rd percentile, so they certainly have issues of their own to work out.
5. RB Rhamondre Stevenson Fumbles in Fourth-Straight Game to Start Season
Another troubling trend for the Patriots offense is that lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson has now fumbled in all four games to start the season. On Sunday, Stevenson fumbled on the Patriots second possession, setting the 49ers up in scoring territory at the NE 30-yard line.
Between the Brissett pick-six and the Stevenson fumble, the Patriots handed a much better Niners team 10 points, which is how you find yourself in a 20-0 hole in the first half. After the fumble by Stevenson, the Patriots run game didn't do much, either. They generated a 32% success rate on 22 rush attempts by running backs, with only one rush over 10 yards.
New England also got stuffed by the 49ers on a key fourth-and-1 attempt in the first half. On the play, the Pats ran away from a rookie Caedan Wallace as the jumbo tight end, aiming the run behind a five-man surface created with two tight ends. If they ran it toward Wallace, they had the numbers. Instead, RG Layden Robinson got beat to the inside by DT Maliek Collins for the initial penetration and LB Fred Warner cleaned it up to stuff the Pats when it was 13-zip, SF.
Those were key moments in the first half where the Patriots run game let them down, making it difficult for them to stay with the 49ers. Ultimately, the Pats need the run game to succeed.
6. Second-Year Defenders Keion White and Christian Gonzalez Show Well in SF
Adding to some silver linings were 2023 draft picks Keion White (seven pressures) and Christian Gonzalez (5 targets, two catches, 12 yards). White continued a monster start to the year by pressuring Purdy seven times, including two quick pressures. The former second-round pick also had a run stuff. Gonzo, on the other hand, mostly covered 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (13 routes) but also saw Deebo Samuel some. Gonzalez allowed just 12 yards as the nearest defender and covered a deep ball well downfield to force an incompletion. New England's top two picks from the 2023 draft continue to show well.
7. Rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk Flashes, but Receiver Separation Remains a Problem
Another observation from watching live was that the Patriots desperately need a one-on-one winner, especially on slants, to win on the outside.
With the Patriots trying to protect the offensive line with quick-game concepts, Brissett targeted WR KJ Osborn twice on slant/curl routes that were well covered. Osborn wasn't the only one who was inconsistent against man coverage, but the lack of separation was noticeable.
On a positive note, Polk flashed his contested catch ability with a 21-yard back shoulder completion working against single coverage. Polk also caught a deep ball between two defenders that was ruled out of bounds, but the Pats rookie was insistent after the game that it was a catch (it was very close). If it was ruled a catch, it would've put New England deep in 49ers territory down 27-13. Brissett should continue to give Polk chances on contested catches when he has single coverage on the outside.
Like with the quarterback, it'll take some big plays for defenses to respect the Patriots passing game. Until then, stacked boxes will slow down the run game without much fear for New England's outside receivers.
8. Reinforcements on the Way: WR Kendrick Bourne Travels to San Francisco
One more nugget from the Patriots postgame locker room scene was that WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP) made the trip with his teammates to the Bay Area. This is the first time Bourne has traveled with the team this season, further reinforcing that he's nearing a return to play from his torn ACL.
Bourne is among a handful of Patriots who are eligible to return off the reserve lists in Week 5. Along with KB, LB Sione Takitaki and S/LB Marte Mapu are candidates to begin practicing next week. Bourne, who was having a career season before tearing his ACL in Miami last October, will certainly provide a boost to the offense. In 2023, Bourne ranked 14th among 134 qualified receivers in ESPN's receiver score metric.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
