The Patriots head south for their third-straight and final road game of the 2020 season to take on the Miami Dolphins in a game that both teams need to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Since meeting in the season opener, the teams have had somewhat divergent roads to knocking on the playoff door. The Patriots have been up-and-down, while the Dolphins made the move to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and have gotten some promising early returns. Since starting 1-3, the Dolphins have gone 7-2 and are coming off a hard-fought loss to the conference-leading Chiefs.
Miami currently holds the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC and have a difficult final slate, as they'll travel to Las Vegas and Buffalo after wrapping their final home game against New England. A recent spate of injuries to their offensive weaponry could be a huge factor and the Dolphins try to solidify their place in the standings and maintain their grip on a ticket to the post-season.
New England's playoff hopes are hanging by a final string, they cannot afford to lose another game and must get all kinds of help to squeak their way into a post-season appearance. Regardless, the Patriots need little extra motivation against the Dolphins, who were in a similar position at the end of last season but still played hard and cost the Patriots a valuable bye week with a stunning Week 17 defeat.
Here are the Keys to the Game presented by Carmax!
Attack Tua
All week the Patriots raved about Tua's decision making, he's thrown just one interception on the season, and is giving his team a chance every week by not making mental mistakes. That kind of veteran poise is something the Patriots defense will have to knock off of him this week.
Few defenses are better at cooking something up than Bill Belichick's and with nine-straight wins over rookie quarterbacks, dating back to 2013, they'll certainly have something in store for Tagovailoa.
The bigger question will be the execution. We've seen the Patriots defense oscillate between dictating and getting dictated to, and the difference is often apparent in the first few possessions. The bottom line is when the Patriots defense is attacking, they're at their best. When they're on their heels, searching for answers against the run like they were against the Rams, they're at their worst.
While they'll get some help from Miami's injuries, the Patriots defense has to be ready to take it to them, forcing Tue to expend mental energy on every snap by trying to decipher what they have up their sleeve.
If they can make Tua look like a rookie, they'll give their offense the chance to put up enough points to win.
Don't give it away
A major theme from the Patriots this week was not turning the ball over. That's always been important for any Patriots team, but especially this one against a Miami team with the third-best turnover ratio in the league.
Miami has 25 takeaways, tied for best in the league, and has multiple takeaways in seven of their 13 games. They have at least one in every game this season and have hit four in two different games. The opener against the Patriots was one of only three times this season they've lost the turnover battle and the only time they lost it by more than one turnover.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have just three turnovers in the last six games after have 12 during their four-game losing streak. They've been better of late no question, but this week more than ever it absolutely critical that they don't revert to their bad ball security ways.
Red zone finish
For as bad as the Rams game unfolded, some red zone finish by the Patriots offense might've actually made it a close game. But New England wasn't able to get into the end zone on four different trips and ended up with just three points.
Miami has an aggressive defense that will come out attacking Cam Newton and the Patriots offense. They'll be much better prepared than they were in the season opener and points will again be at a premium.
Expect Josh McDaniels to pull out all the stops to make sure the Patriots get something going offensively. McDaniels admitted the Dolphins would have something new to throw at the Patriots, but that also signals that offensive coordinator is planning the same for them.
In the absence of explosive scoring plays, every point will be at a premium in this contest and the Patriots must finish their long drives with touchdowns if they want to get in control of the game. They're a far superior team when playing from in front, when their biggest strengths – the ground game and pass defense – can shine. But without a lead those strengths can be non-factors, especially if they fall behind by multiple scores.
Patriots.com's Mike Dussault shares his players to watch ahead of the Patriots matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
Sony Michel, RB: Damien Harris is the engine for the offense, but Michel could still prove to be a vital counterpunch in Miami. The quickest route to victory could be a solid one-two attack from their two backs, as Michel should be rounding back into form. Together, they should lead the Patriots through these final three games.
Devin Asiasi, TE: Asiasi returned to the lineup against the Rams and figures to have a significant role over the last three games of the season with Ryan Izzo landing on IR. After drafting two tight ends this season, the Patriots still haven't gotten much production from the position, but with some experience now adding up, Asiasi could give reason for hope by showing some growth.
Kyle Dugger, DB: Dugger has five-straight starts and has been employed more and more in a traditional safety role, looking quick to react when moved further from the ball. But make no mistake, Dugger will be everywhere and each week he shows signs of improvement. He'll be a player to watch for a long time in New England.
Josh Uche, LB: Uche has emerged into a passing-down role for the defense after being slow to make his debut early in the season. His athleticism, speed and strength have stood out, but can Uche show any early-down potential? Like all the young players on the roster, his role could grow here in the final three weeks. He's just scratching the surface.
Anfernee Jennings, LB: Jennings has been thrown into the fire this season and he fits the traditional mold of a versatile Patriots linebacker, who has the length and strength to play inside and outside. He's taken some lumps early on, but that experience should start to pay dividends. Jennings has three-down potential.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB: The rookie first-round pick is 4-2 in his first six starts, throwing nine touchdowns to one interception, while completing 62.4 percent of his passes. It has been an excellent start for the rookie, what has been smart and efficient with the ball. He'll have a tall task against the Patriots with a number of his favorite weapons dealing with injuries.
Lynn Bowden, Jr: WR: With injuries hitting the receiving corps hard, Bowden has emerged as the favorite target left standing, leading the Dolphins with seven catches for 82 yards against the Chiefs, including a long of 22 yards. He had just five catches prior to that game and could be called on to step up again vs. the Patriots.
Emmanuel Ogbah, DE: Ogbah leads the Dolphins with eight sacks and 20 quarterback hits, all career highs after spending three seasons with the Browns and one with the Chiefs. Ogbah has emerged a disruptive force for Miami and will be a key matchup for the Patriots offensive line.
Xavien Howard, CB: Howard leads the NFL with nine interceptions, including an outstanding pick last week against the Chiefs. One of the top cover corners in the league, he'll be a big thorn in the passing attack's side as the Pats look to get Cam Newton on track through the air.
Kyle Van Noy, LB: The former Patriot missed last week with an injury, but is a good bet to return against the Pats. Van Noy is second on the team with six sacks and is poised to build on even his best seasons with New England. He had a sack and a QB hit in the Week 1 matchup to go with five tackles.
All eyes on the young guys
Ultimately, the silver lining that can be taken from any of these final three performances is the continued development from the young players who have ascended late this season. While Michael Onwenu and Kyle Dugger have seen the most extensive action, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Justin Herron and Myles Bryant continue to carve our roles and make strides.
Most intriguing will be the performances of the rookie tight ends Devin Asasi and Dalton Keene, who figure to see their most significant action of the season. With a full week of actual practice, both should be better prepared for expanded roles.
And it's not just the rookies. Ja'Whaun Bentley, Chase Winovich and receivers N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers all continue to stack experience. The team could use all of them to emerge as consistent contributors going forward. Maybe it's asking a lot for all of them to shine this weekend, but with a team that will be getting younger, the more experience they can acquire now, the better for later.
Prediction
With Miami's offense banged up and their defense playing with something to prove against the Patriots offense, it's likely that this game will be a low-scoring defensive battle. The Pats can't count on Miami to beat themselves with turnovers or poor special teams play, they'll have to seize the victory by executing in key moments.
This season hasn't gone the way the Patriots would like, but a win in Miami over a solid Dolphins team, especially in the face of last year's disappointing flame out against them at home, would be a nice reminder that New England isn't quite as far off as some would have us believe.
The Pats confound Tua and make just enough critical plays through the air to pull out a feel-good win.
Patriots 17, Dolphins 16
