After a big upset in Chicago last week, the Patriots are turning the page to a challenging NFC tilt against the Rams at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Before we nerd out about football, let's be romantic about football. Under head coach Jerod Mayo, New England is trying to build a winning program. We've never been pro-tanking here, and even if we were, the Patriots already have their quarterback of the future when they drafted Drake Maye following a four-win season — been there and done that.
With the quarterback secured, this season is all about laying a foundation. You could argue that you should lose as many games as possible to secure the best draft pick possible. But it would be much better for the Patriots to finish strong in their final eight games of 2024. Wouldn't it be nice if the Patriots won a handful of games down the stretch to feel good about themselves heading into the offseason? They'd know Maye is their guy, other players would emerge along with Maye, and New England might suddenly be a more appealing free-agent destination.
Add some needle-movers in the veteran market, have a good draft, and what do you know, now we're cooking. That's obviously wishful thinking for this regime. Still, the Pats win over the Bears was a good first step. They won as a team, the coaches put players in a position to succeed, and Maye out-dueled top-pick Caleb Williams on his home turf.
With the Rams in town, this is a legit test to see if the Patriots can build some momentum off their win in Chicago. Although they scuffled on Monday night, Los Angeles is in the playoff hunt with Matthew Stafford's playmakers healthy. Sean McVay is an excellent coach and one of the NFL's brightest offensive minds. Plus, LA has an emerging young defense that features the second-ranked pass rush in pressure rate this season.
It's not the greatest show on turf against the up-and-coming Patriots in the 2001 regular season. But, realistically, hanging with the Rams like those Patriots did would go a long way. Just prove that you're moving in the right direction, that's all. New England will have its hands full with Los Angeles, from the players to the coaching staff. However, to start believing in Mayo and Maye, the Patriots must begin competing in games like these against playoff-caliber opponents.
Without further ado, let's preview the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Rams at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Patriots Offense vs. Rams Defense: Preparing for LA's Formidable Pass Rush
Over the course of the season, a top storyline surrounding the Patriots has been the performance of the offensive line. New England has struggled to consistently get the same five linemen on the field, while the Patriots lack starting-caliber talent in certain spots.
Last week, the Patriots finally built some continuity by starting the same five that finished the overtime loss to the Titans and went the distance in the win over the Jets. Like most things with this team, it's far from a finished product, but it is a starting point for the remainder of 2024. One would expect the Patriots to roll with the same line that has begun having some success: LT Vederian Lowe, LG Michael Jordan, C Ben Brown, RG Mike Onwenu, and RT Trey Jacobs. In Week 10, the Pats held a solid Bears defensive front to a 37.9% pressure rate while posting a 41.9% rushing success rate, their highest in a game since Week 5.
On Sunday, New England's offensive line will be put to the test. In the offseason, former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris was hired by the Falcons to become Atlanta's head coach. McVay decided to promote from within, tabbing longtime assistant Chris Shula as defensive coordinator. Shula is in year eight on LA's staff, three under Morris, and has a coaching pedigree with his grandfather (Don) and father (Dave).
Along with losing Morris to a head coaching gig, future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald retired after ten seasons. The Rams are in a transition period on defense, but Shula has a very young group rounding into form. Over the last month, the Rams are second in EPA per play on defense. With his background in the front seven and as a pass-rush coordinator, Shula's pressure schemes pop off the tape. Plus, Los Angeles has drafted well, selecting stud rookies Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Byron Young, and Kobie Turner in the last two drafts.
The Rams create havoc in the pass rush by using creeper pressures. Creepers are when the defense shows a standard structure but blitzes a usual coverage defender, let's say an off-ball linebacker, and drops a pass-rusher off the line of scrimmage. They have a similar effect as a blitz, but the defense only rushes four defenders to maintain their numbers in coverage. According to NextGen Stats, LA dials up creepers at the third-highest rate in the NFL (7.3%).
Here's one example of their pressure scheme. With the Seahawks releasing five into the pattern, the Rams blitz No. 50 (Limmer) over the left side while dropping No. 97 (Hoecht) off the line of scrimmage into a short zone. The scheme overloads the left side, and the unblocked defender bats the pass down at the line of scrimmage.
Even when they don't create free runners, the Rams produce one-on-one matchups for their top pass-rushers. In this next example, the Rams are running a simulated pressure, which is when they show all-out pressure but drop defenders out to form a four-man rush. Then, the onus is on the blockers to sort through the rushers after the snap.
This time, the Rams have six defenders up on the line. At the snap, two drop out, but the line must respect all six rushers as potential threats. As a result, the scheme gets a one-on-one for Fiske, whose motor runs hot as an interior rush. Fiske goes with his signature arm over rush, beating the right guard for a sack – Fiske is a problem, as is Verse.
To combat these pressure schemes, Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt absolutely must give rookie QB Drake Maye quick answers. If the Pats aren't prepared or get stuck in obvious passing situations, Maye will be running for his life in Foxborough on Sunday. To that end, Seattle found some answers to the Rams pressure package in Week 9.
One way the Seahawks beat creeper schemes was by anticipating which defender would drop into coverage to throw at that defender. Remember, the droppers are edge defenders who are used to rushing rather than playing coverage. In other words, they can be had in space. Above, the Seahawks run a spot concept into the on-the-line defender's zone with the Rams in a cover three, forcing Young to cover, and it's a chunk gain.
When the Rams ran simulated pressures, the Seahawks countered by dialing up their man-beaters. Here, Seattle puts the running back up into the line of scrimmage to give him a better chance to pick up the blitz. That also allows for a four-man slide to the overload side, giving Geno time. Smith has a matchup with his tight end in the left slot on a slant but instead goes to the back-shoulder fade against press coverage.
The Patriots will need to time up their screen calls, but another potential flaw in this Rams defensive front is that they're sometimes aggressive to a fault. Verse loves to win with speed-to-power, while Fiske is an upfield rusher who wants to pin his ears back. As two young defenders in this league, they can be manipulated upfield in the screen and draw game. This season, the Rams allow +0.37 expected points added per screen pass, which ranks dead-last in the NFL.
Lastly, we'll almost always advocate for Maye winning in structure. However, this is a game where his mobility needs to be a factor. Last week, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa went 3-for-3 for 67 yards on extended drop-backs. When you play a good pass rush, the quarterback can help his line by extending plays, which Maye will have to do some on Sunday. Overall, blocking this Rams front is much easier said than done. Verse is currently the betting favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, while Shula is an up-and-coming defensive mind; it's a scary matchup.
Van Pelt should provide Maye with solutions to the problems that the Rams present, but there will be a hefty mental load on the Pats rookie quarterback and center Ben Brown to get into the right plays on Sunday.
Patriots Defense vs. Rams Offense: Readying for McVay's Bread-and-Butters
The Rams offense is one of my favorite studies every football season because of how well they marry run and pass while utilizing motion.
McVay runs a simple scheme on paper, but the details he provides to attack tendencies and how he has evolved his offense over the years are remarkable. When the Patriots played a less experienced McVay in Super Bowl 53, his offense was one-dimensional. McVay was an outside zone-bootleg sequencer. The Rams ran their entire offense out of 11-personnel (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB), really only had one run-blocking scheme they majored in, and needed to generate explosives off play-action.
Former head coach Bill Belichick put out the blueprint on the biggest stage by running a 6-1 tilt front with quarters and cover three (buzz) in the backend. The Pats game plan shut down the Rams, leading New England to its sixth Super Bowl title. But it also forced McVay to develop his off-hand. Since then, the Rams upgraded at quarterback from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford, while McVay has also incorporated more gap runs.
This season, the Rams offense has been inconsistent primarily because of injuries. They've been without top receiver duo Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for most of the year. Plus, Los Angeles's offensive line has been in flux. LA got starting C Jonah Jackson and LG Steve Avila back last week, which, in theory, was good. It's possible that the Rams could get starting RT Rob Havenstein back this week, who would be an upgrade over swing tackle Joe Noteboom. Despite getting players back, the line struggled again vs. Miami, allowing four sacks and a 34% pressure rate.
Here's a spice take for you: these Rams receivers aren't all that dynamic, and the Patriots can cover them in man-to-man. Stafford is generating -0.42 EPA per drop-back this season vs. Cover 1 (man), 31st out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. Last week, Stafford was 3-for-9 for 35 yards and a pick vs. Cover 1. On film, they don't have much team speed besides Pop Douglas clone Tutu Atwell to stretch the field vertically. Kupp is on washed watch as the injuries pile up on him. Nacua is a great fit for this offense as a YAC merchant but isn't a pure separator vs. man coverage. Lastly, their tight ends and third wideout Demarcus Robinson aren't game-changers, either. It's a gritty group that will battle at the catch point and has the muscle to run block, but they don't run away from anyone.
From this perspective, the keys for the Patriots are to limit an average run-game due to O-Line issues (18th in rush DVOA) and prevent McVay from sequencing them to death with run+play-action. It's a good matchup for the Pats defense if they can get them into third down. New England will likely focus on stopping outside zone with five-man fronts. In the passing game, the key is to take away crossers, digs, and corner routes they'll run off vertical stems. Kupp and Nacua like to run defenders off and break off routes with sharp cuts. Stafford throws crossers at a league-high rate (16.1%) and flag routes at the third-highest rate (5.6%), with his receivers sequencing those routes off one another.
As for the individual matchups, my guess is the Patriots will stick with what worked in Chicago, which was top CB Christian Gonzalez playing the boundary (X receiver), CB Marcus Jones as the base field corner and third-down slot CB, and a combination of Jonathan Jones and Marco Wilson manning the outside opposite Gonzo on third down.
As for the scheme, they still feature outside zone, but Los Angeles will also run duo schemes as a counter to defenses that play five or six-man fronts. Duo is a gap scheme where the offense tries to create as many double-teams as possible on the line of scrimmage. McVay, who is among the league leaders in motion rate and condensed formation usage, will use motion and condensed spacing to add blockers, forming large surfaces to run the ball. On Sunday, everyone will be at the point of attack for the Patriots defense.
The Rams are then excellent at marrying their run game with play-action concepts. They'll use almost identical formations and motions to give off the vibe that they're running the ball and then hit shots off play-action downfield with defenses in a bind – these schemes really test the defense's eye discipline because they look so similar to their runs.
In the drop-back pass game, McVay has some staples that put his best skill players in positions to succeed. Mainly, Kupp and Nacua.
Here is a McVay/Shanahan tree day-one install: Choice Stucko. The play pairs two outside vertical stems that convert based on the coverage with a choice/option route and a backside juke route. Typically, Stafford doesn't need to progress past his first read because Kupp is so tough to cover on the choice route. Above, the Rams shift Kupp before the snap to give him and Stafford a coverage indicator. When the coverage declares, Kupp is free to break into space.
The other drop-back concept that McVay loves is most commonly called dagger, or in his verbiage, NASCAR. On the three-receiver side, the quarterback has a slot vertical to clear out the middle of the field, with a deep dig breaking into the void. Then, McVay will have a vertical stem on the backside, allowing the quarterback to attack single coverage. Here, the Dolphins take away the dagger route in man coverage with a robber, so Stafford hits the deep stop route that's one-on-one backside.
On Monday night, the Dolphins shut down LA's passing game with a 76% zone coverage rate. Although the Dolphins mostly used zone coverage to slow down the Rams offense, you can succeed with man coverage, New England's specialty.
First, the Rams are running their "Nascar" concept against Miami's cover-two zone. The deep safety stays over the top of the vertical while the Tampa-2 defender closes off the dig. In the pass rush, Miami runs a creeper pressure, sending pressure off the left side and dropping a defender underneath Stafford's "hot" on the short route to the three-receiver side for a sack.
In this clip, Miami forced an incompletion against Choice Stucko by playing Cover-1 robber. This right here could be the way for the Patriots. The robber defender helps to Kupp's choice route, allowing the primary coverage defender to play outside leverage in case Kupp breaks out. The robber scheme takes away Stafford's first read, Kupp, and Robinson's man plays off the post-safety to blanket the corner route.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, a Shanahan tree member, had the answers to the test against the Rams offense last week. Look for the Patriots to mimic the schemes Miami was successful with on Sunday.
Key Matchups
LT Vederian Lowe vs. Rams EDGE Jared Verse - Verse is the current favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. He plays with a non-stop motor, great physicality, and incredible play strength. His signature move is an excellent bull rush right through your chest, and he'll counter that by slipping inside tackles who set outside to brace for his power rush. Lowe is susceptible to giving up the inside track, so he must stay square to Verse to give Maye a chance.
RG Mike Onwenu vs. Rams DT Braden Fiske - Anyone who studied his film at Florida State could've told you that Fiske is a baller. He ranks tenth in pass-rush win rate with 27 pressures. Fiske will mostly line up over the right guard in obvious passing situations, using his instant snap reaction and arm over move to terrorize guards. The Pats need a big game from Onwenu.
EDGE Keion White vs. Rams RG Kevin Dotson - On the other side, it's now a weekly "Where's Waldo" for the Pats defensive staff, targeting the weak link on the interior with White. Dotson ranks 45th out of 57 qualified guards in PFF pass-blocking grade, so one would expect White to target him in the pass rush on Sunday.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
