The Patriots lost their sixth game in a row last weekend and will now return home to Gillette Stadium with hopes of turning their season around with a win against a Jets team that is struggling to live up to expectations.
In Week 3 the Patriots fell to the Jets on Thursday Night Football, 24-3. New England managed just 11 first downs and 139 yards of offense while the Jets rolled up 400 yards total in a lopsided affair. However, neither team has won a game since that point and both have made significant changes to their lineups, with the Pats turning to rookie quarterback Drake Maye and the Jets making a trade for Davante Adams to help save their season which still has playoff aspirations.
Will things be different this time? Here's what to watch for as the Patriots and Jets finish out their second matchup of the season against each other.
Drake Maye: Maye showed some nice strides against the Jaguars in London, avoiding any turnovers and continuing to look more comfortable as an NFL quarterback. Head coach Jerod Mayo said that it was Maye's toughness that has impressed him the most.
"He's still out there, he's taking hits and getting back up and still stepping into the pocket," said Mayo on Monday. "I think he's doing a good job. When you talk about progress from game one to game two, no turnovers [against Jacksonville], which is headed in the right direction. He's definitely playing at a good level for us."
Things will get tougher against a Jets defense that has received reinforcements on both sides of the ball. Most importantly to Maye will be the status of Hason Reddick, who could make his season debut this weekend and provide a potent bookend pass rusher to pair with the surging Will McDonald. The Jets defense ranks 11th in points, 21st in DVOA and 14th in EPA. They're a little all over the place while battling injury attrition to their secondary but their pressure rate remains in the top-10 (6th) as getting after the passer continues to be an area of strength. There could be matchups for Maye to take advantage of through the air, but as always, protection is critical.
Kayshon Boutte – Boutte delivered another big play against the Jaguars, showing growing chemistry with Drake Maye after the two connected on a long touchdown in Maye's debut against the Texans. After spending 2023 as a depth player, Boutte is emerging as a needed outside threat for the Patriots passing attack. Clearly, Maye has confidence in Boutte on the deep balls, but can the second-year receiver develop into a more consistent threat? It's something that the Patriots offense vitally needs, as Hunter Henry, Pop Douglas and the running backs can't make up the entirety of the passing game drive in and drive out.
"Since Drake came in, and maybe we've been working day in day out, and it's safe to say that it's paying off on the field," said Boutte this week. "[Drake] first came in against the Texans, a top five defense, 230 passing yards, two touchdowns. That was a great, great start for him. Came back last week, almost 300 passing yards, three touchdowns. So just watching him improve day in and day out is great."
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson rolled up 120 rushing yards in the season debut against the Bengals, but has since failed to top 100 yards again. He's battled injuries and fumble issues, missing the Houston game, as New England's rushing offense has fallen all the way to 32nd in DVOA in the league. Like with Polk, the team must find a way to get their rushing attack back on track. The Jets are 25th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 149 yards on the ground in the last two losses. It's fair to wonder how different things for Maye might look with a complementary run game helping him out, but it's not just on Stevenson and the backs, it's also connected to the offensive line that has remained in constant flux over the first seven weeks of the season. Stevenson continues to pop up on the Injury Report and was absent from Wednesday's opening practice session. He's likely to be questionable for the game.
Vederian Lowe: A potential return to the lineup for Lowe could be the kind of personnel boost that they need, as it would allow them to return to their favored starting lineup of Lowe-Jordan-Brown-Onwenu-Jacobs. Though the protection hasn't been perfect, it's improved over the last two weeks, at least as far as pressure rate. With Brissett at starter, he was pressured on 50% of his drop backs, while Maye has been pressured on 40.6% of his. When protected with over 2.5 seconds to throw, he's thrown four touchdowns and one interception with a 102.9 passer rating. Lowe could further help things settle down around Maye, and perhaps offer a needed boost in the run game. Lowe returned to practice this week but continues to appear limited. If he can get back into the game lineup it will be a nice boost for the offense and one they could really use against the Jets defensive front seven.
Davon Godchaux: Godchaux's frustration has been palpable in recent weeks as the run defense, historically a point of pride in Foxborough, has been torn up, falling to the 28th-ranked DVOA unit in the league after last year ranking third. Just six times in 2023 did the Patriots allow a rusher to go over 100 yards and only once, in the last game of the season, did they allow over 140 yards on the ground. They've already eclipsed that number three times in 2024 as part of five 100-yard-plus performances. Simply put, the run defense is proving to be a fatal flaw. Godchaux has been one of the key cogs up front and can't do it all himself, but the run defense needs to rally around him, including his fellow defensive linemen and the linebackers in back of them. Until they start containing their opponent's rushing attacks, the Patriots will be hard pressed to keep their offense within striking distance on the scoreboard.
Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers has tallied some nice passing yardage over the last two weeks but it's the turnovers (six interceptions in the last three games) that have been hurting the Jets. This comes as New York has allowed the lowest pressure percentage in the league. Rodgers is getting the time and he's got the weapons, but somehow the Jets offense remains mired in low production and not enough consistency. They should be better than 20th in passing DVOA, 20th in EPA and 24th in points. The Patriots will have to figure out a way to break through Rodgers' protection and continue to his streak of turnovers. Of course, having success against their passing game will reflect directly on how well the Patriots run defense can slow down…
Breece Hall & Braelon Allen: The Jets top two backs combined for 109 rushing yards just five weeks ago, a key component of New York's decisive victory. The matchup doesn't bode well for a Patriots run defense that has been getting run all over in recent weeks. Hall and Allen are a nice combination and one that can hurt the defense whether they're carrying the ball or receiving it. The best way for New York to get Rodgers going is to allow their running game to put the Pats D on their heels. The twosome had just 42 combined yards against the Steelers last week, though Hall had over 100 receiving yards. The Pats would love to replicate that performance from Pittsburgh, even if Hall does some damage through the air. Most importantly, the Patriots must prevent Hall and Allen from making the big plays.
Davante Adams: It was a quiet debut with the Jets for Adams, who three catches for 30 yards on nine targets. The Patriots shouldn't expect it to be very long before Rodgers and Adams start to discover their old chemistry, they just can't allow it to happen this week. In September New England could worry primarily about Garrett Wilson but now Adams complicates the matchups to an extreme degree. Christian Gonzalez should be in line for another difficult assignment, but one that he has the size and speed to match up well for. Regardless of who's on who, the biggest key remains the same, don't allow the big plays to continue to play a part in the game.
Will McDonald: McDonald is having a breakout season, already posting eight sacks, while being held off the stat sheet just twice. He's a bendy, athletic player and the next in a seemingly continuous line of potent pass rushers who will challenge the Patriots tackles. If Haason Reddick joins the lineup it will free McDonald up even more. The Pats need a plan to deal with the ascending edge rusher. While the pass protection has been better over the last two weeks, pressure of the edges continues to be a concern.
C.J. Mosley: The biggest problem for the Patriots bringing their run game back to life is the Jets do-it-all linebacker Mosley. The Pats didn't have to deal with him in Week 3, but now Mosley is back and ramping up his contributions over the last two games. A smart, instinctive player, Mosley has the habit of destroying plays before they even get started, something the Patriots have struggled with far too much this season as their running backs have had a hard time of late even getting out of the backfield before having a would-be tackler on top of them. Perhaps Lowe's potential return can allow Mike Onwenu back inside where he can be put in position to deal with Mosley. The Jets linebacker will be a thorn in the Patriots sides no matter how well they deal with him.
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