After two-straight weeks in the NFC, the Patriots return to their own conference to take on the Houston Texans this Sunday night in front of a national audience. The Patriots haven't lost to the Texans in a decade, beating them eight-straight times, including twice in the playoffs and five times against former offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien as Houston's head coach.
Still, the Texans are perennially a team scratching the surface of being a contender and now, with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and sitting atop the AFC South, they will once again attempt to take the big step that has eluded them since January 2010 -- knocking off the vaunted Patriots with a statement win.
The Patriots have bounced back after their Week 9 loss to the Ravens with wins over the Eagles and Cowboys that were a return to what we saw for most of the first two months of the season -- a dominant defense that led the way for an offense that has struggled to consistently move the ball.
But there are reasons for optimism, not that it takes much to feel positive about a Tom Brady-led attack. This will be the first time all season we'll get a glimpse at the offense that the Patriots will aim for the playoffs with, including left tackle Isaiah Wynn, new receiver Mohamed Sanu and a possibly-rejuvenated Sony Michel.
This game will have important playoff implications for both teams as they jockey for seeding in the AFC. The Patriots grip on the top seed is perilous, with Baltimore just one game behind them and playing the best football in the league. Houston's lead in the AFC South is just one game as well and they'll have their eyes on playing a home game on Wild Card Weekend.
We should learn a lot in this AFC clash as the pupil tries to take the master once again. Here are the Keys to the Starting Lineup for the Patriots to get win number 11!
Gilmore vs. Hopkins
There won't be a better receiver-cornerback matchup this weekend than Stephon Gilmore on DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has 24 catches for 339 yards and no touchdowns in his winless five games against the Patriots and things will be even harder this time around with Gilmore playing the best football of his career. He's hasn't had much success in two prior games against Gilmore. There's little question how important Hopkins is to the Texans, he's their leading third-down receiver and already has 81 catches on the season for 839 yards and eight touchdowns. If Gilmore eliminates Hopkins like he's eliminated every receiver he's faced this season, it will be the most direct path to shutting down the Texans offense. However, that will put a spotlight on the Will Fuller matchup, as J.C. Jackson or Jason McCourty (if healthy) figures to be the primary man for the job. If Gilmore wants to continue his case for being a defensive MVP candidate, he'll have a golden opportunity by facing Hopkins.
Patriots.com's Mike Dussault shares his players to watch during the Patriots Week 13 matchup against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday, December 1, 2019.
Stephon Gilmore, CB – After shutting down Amari Cooper, Gilmore is making a push for Defensive MVP this season. This week he'll see another one of the best receivers in the league in DeAndre Hopkins and get another chance to make his case as the best cornerback in the league.
Tom Brady, QB – Brady and the offense are still looking for a breakout game but showed good signs despite being shorthanded against Dallas in a monsoon. With Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett expected to return to action this will be our first look at the 2019 Patriots will all their big pieces in place. Brady could be primed to go off.
Isaiah Wynn, OL – Wynn had a couple early bumps against the Cowboys but was generally solid in his return to action. His footwork and hand placement are already beyond what you'd hope for from a player with just three career starts, as Wynn looks like he will really help the Patriots offense. He's an exciting offensive lineman to watch which is saying a lot.
Sony Michel, RB – Michel found some consistent success last week, with some decisive fourth-quarter runs that helped seal the win against the Cowboys. If he can build on that performance the entire Patriots offense will benefit. Michel is the biggest x-factor on offense and could use another successful game before facing the Chiefs next week, when he'll be even more critical.
Jonathan Jones, DB – Gilmore has stolen a lot of the headlines this year but Jones has continued to improve in his fourth season. He's grown into a valuable matchup option who can do just about everything in the secondary. He figures to be a big piece of defending Deshaun Watson and his ability to run with the ball.
Deshaun Watson, QB – Watson is off to another solid season, throwing 20 touchdowns and rushing for five more. With their top corner expected to eliminate Watson's top target, it will be up to the defensive front seven to keep the quarterback contained and force him to beat them with ancillary options. Watson's athleticism will be a good AFC tune up.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR – Hopkins is one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL, capable of making plays even when he seems fully covered. Hopkins vs. Gilmore will be one of the must-watch matchups of the weekend and likely where the game is won or lost.
Will Fuller, WR – Fuller is the true x-factor for the Texans offense but has had trouble staying healthy. His speed is the perfect complement to Hopkins and opens up a lot more options in the passing game. The Patriots have been lucky to avoid the Fuller-Hopkins duo, as Fuller has missed three of the last four games against New England. They'll need a plan for Fuller.
Duke Johnson, RB – The Texans' receiving back has 25 catches as is averaging almost 10 yards-per-catch. The Patriots defense has had occasional problems with backs catching the ball out of the backfield, especially in the screen game. Johnson is a good safety valve for Watson that will need to be eliminated.
Carlos Hyde, RB – The Texans power back has 836 rushing yards and four touchdowns and figures to get most of the early-down work. Danny Shelton and Lawrence Guy have had outstanding seasons and will need to control the line of scrimmage to prevent Hyde from getting going and putting the Texans in favorable down and distances.
Convert and Finish on Offense
We know the Patriots have been effective with up-tempo, no-huddle in spots but what else can they hang their hats on? They'll be looking to find out against a Houston defense that is 24th in DVOA, but more importantly 31st on 3rd down and 30th in the red zone. Those weaknesses match up exactly with what the Patriots have struggled with this season, as they're 17th on 3rd down and 25th in the red zone. So what happens when an immobile force meets a movable barrier? The Patriots inability to maintain drives and, more importantly, finish with touchdowns especially when given the ball back on short fields via takeaways, has been the most troubling aspect of the offense. If they're to get on track in those critical areas the Texans should provide a friendly matchup.
No Big Rushing Plays
Despite all the attention on Watson and Hopkins, the Texans have had an effective running combo this season with Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde. Houston ranks tied for 4th in explosive runs (20-plus yards) and are the third-best rushing team on first down. They're also ranked 1st in the league in second-level runs. That kind of explosive ground success can minimize the impact of having Hopkins matched up on Gilmore and stretch the Patriots' front seven thin. The Pats run defense has had some problems this year and would have to be considered the weakest part of an otherwise air tight defense. The balance between Johnson and Hyde isn't hard to figure out, but the Patriots will also have to consider Watson's ability to run as part of this issue, he's got five explosive runs of his own compared to nine for Hyde and seven for Johnson.
The Patriots defense has allowed just 10 rushes of 15 yards-or-more this season, 5th in the NFL. Continuing that kind of performance will be a big key.
Passing Offense Resurgence
Without J.J. Watt, the Texans pass rush has fallen to 23rd in the NFL, while the Texans pass defense is ranked just 25th in DVOA. Add it all up and you'd expect the Patriots offense to get it going in this one, despite former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel usually dialing up some challenges for Brady. Now is the time for the Patriots passing offense to get into gear, they're just 12th in passing offense DVOA, their lowest ranking in 16 years, but they've been dealing with issues all season long until now. Isaiah Wynn gave the offensive line a boost in his return against the Cowboys and with Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett expected to return after missing the game against Dallas, along with Matt LaCosse finally being healthy and the rookie receivers having some success, all the pieces are now in place. If we're to expect this team to start playing their best football after Thanksgiving, this is a good game to raise our expectations.
Prediction
The average margin of the Patriots last two wins over the Texans was just five points. Houston has fought them tough in those games, both of which came in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Playing on the road provides a bit more of a challenge for New England but they've avoided their road struggles of 2018 this season. This is the most healthy and functional Patriots offense that we've had since September, while the defense has experienced little dropoff from the high bar they set in those early games and the special teams continue to make game-changing plays.
The Texans will have a good plan and there's plenty of offensive talent compared to the past opponents that The Boogeymen have destroyed but this feels like it's adding up to a Patriots statement game.
