When the schedule came out in April, this weekend's game between the Patriots and Chiefs was the first one circled. The teams had two epic games last season, with the Patriots overtime win in the AFC Championship earning a spot as one of the most impressive victories of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era.
Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, as the Patriots have had to rely on defense and special teams for the first time in over a decade. The Chiefs lost their star quarterback to injury and experienced some surprising defeats, already hitting their loss total from last season. Despite their respective drama, both teams arrive at this game needing and wanting a win every bit as much as we thought they would when the schedule was first released.
For the Patriots, this is a turning point game. Win and they'll be firmly in the AFC's second seed and re-establish their position as a team who can beat anyone, especially in their home stadium. Lose and they'll have just a one-game lead on the Chiefs for the second seed and even the division title could be in question with the 9-3 Bills nipping at their heels. A loss would also mean the Patriots will have lost to all three AFC division leaders and call into question if they have any hope of making another playoff run.
So yes, this game is every bit as big as you'd expect it to be and it will be a defining moment of the 2019 season. Here's what the Patriots need to do to get back on track with the Keys to the Starting Lineup!
Weather the Storm
The Chiefs are the best first half offensive team in the NFL, ranking first in yardage and second in points but in the second half things drop off for them, falling all the way to 18th in fourth-quarter yardage and 14th in second-half points. They've raced out to plenty of leads but sustaining their early offensive production has been difficult for Kansas City. They were up 17-3 in the first quarter against the Texans and lost 31-24. They went up 10-0 on the Titans and held a 29-20 lead early in the fourth quarter and still lost. Even without Mahomes, they led the Packers at halftime 17-14 but lost. This is a departure for the Patriots because in last year's two games with the Chiefs it was actually the second-half scoring that was the big problem.
Devin McCourty spoke about the Chiefs ability to adjust, so it will be a 60 minute game, but the Patriots must be prepared to weather an aerial assault right out of the gate. If they get the kind of start like they got last year, holding the Chiefs to nine and zero points in the first halves, they'll be on their way.
Patriots.com's Mike Dussault shares his players to watch during the Patriots Week 14 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, December 8, 2019.
Tom Brady, QB: The pressure is on Brady and the Patriots offense that failed to solve their problems against the Texans. Now comes another AFC power matchup against a division leader that will have important playoff implications. This is usually when Brady is at his best, but there are still a lot of questions about the Patriots offense, the biggest being if they can keep pace with the Chiefs scoring machine.
Sony Michel, RB: The biggest weakness on the Chiefs team has been their early-down run defense so it's pretty much now or never for the Patriots running game, led by Michel. In recent weeks, the 2018 first rounder has shown improved burst and vision but is still waiting for a game where he runs roughshod. The Pats need this to be that game to secure their place atop the AFC.
Rex Burkhead, RB: Burkhead had a surprising lack of usage against the Texans, but against the aggressive Chiefs defense there should be a more significant role for the versatile back. One way or another the Pats must get the run going against the Chiefs and if Michel can't do it, expect Burkhead to get close to 20 snaps, both running and catching the ball.
Jamie Collins, LB: The Chiefs high-flying offense is just the kind of game where Collins should excel in. After fighting an illness last week, Collins was mostly invisible against the Texans. He'll need to re-emerge and find the form that had him as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate earlier this season. If he's chasing down Mahomes and making plays in the backfield, the Patriots defense will have a chance to contain the Chiefs.
Kyle Van Noy, LB: Van Noy has been the Patriots most consistent linebacker this season and his strong play on the edge while also getting after the quarterback has given New England one of the best linebackers in the league. In big games your best players need to play like your best players and Van Noy must combine with Jamie Collins to lead the way in winning the physical battle and making life difficult for Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes, QB: With 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions, the Patriots can't expect to rely on mistakes from Mahomes to help aid their offensive struggles. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense cannot be totally stopped but the Patriots did a reasonable job containing them for large portions of last year's two matchups. Can they reproduce those results or even improve on them by not allowing 31 second-half points for a third-straight matchup?
Tyrann Mathieu, SS: Matheiu has emerged as a key playmaker on a remade Chiefs defense and figures to be in the middle of the action all game long whether he's in coverage or in the box against the run. Mathieu leads the defense with three interceptions and is second with seven passes defensed. Making sure the safety doesn't get his hands on any passes will be vital.
Travis Kelce, TE: Kelce leads the Chiefs with 68 catches and is the first weapon that must be taken away from Mahomes. That is easier said than done as Bill Belichick described Kelce as being more of a wide receiver than true tight end. That kind of matchup could see Stephon Gilmore matching up on Kelce at key moments.
Sammy Watkins, WR: Watkins doesn't get enough attention and is second on the team with 42 catches. With the speed of Tyreek Hill and effectiveness of Kelce, it's easy to lose Watkins and that's what happened in last year's AFC Championship where Watkins led the Chiefs with over 100 yards receiving. They can't lose track of him this year.
Tyreek Hill, WR: Hill missed four games but is still tied for the touchdown lead on the team with five. Hill's speed is a game-changing factor and one the Patriots will have to be constantly aware of. Between Hilll and Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs have no problem stretching the field and that could take the Patriots out of their effective Cover-0 blitz package.
Move the Ball on First Down
The Chiefs own the 30th-ranked run defense in DVOA, and are giving up the 5th-most yards-per-rush on first down with the 9th-most rushes against. If there's a clear statistical trend for Kansas City's defense it's that stopping the run on first down is their biggest weakness. Can the Patriots finally have a breakout running game? New England's 18th-ranked DVOA rushing offense is no sure bet, but in recent weeks the Pats ground game has shown some sparks.
The bigger reason to run the ball on early downs is that the Chiefs defense quickly ascends near the top of the league on third down, where they're fourth in turnover percentage and 3rd in sacks despite being 14th in third down conversions. The new-look defense is starting to find their stride. Steve Spagnuolo's unit wants to get upfield and attack just like his 2007 Giants defense did and getting into third-and-long situations will play right into their strengths. Not to overstate it but New England's chances in this game might correspond directly to how well they move the ball on first down, which doesn't just have to be straight-up runs, but include a combination of screen passes and jet sweeps.
Bend Don't Break (again)
The Chiefs are at their best when they're scoring explosive touchdown plays, but when faced with extended execution, especially on shorter fields, they're not the same unstoppable offense. The shorter fields can mitigate their explosive downfield speed. KC leads the league with 18 touchdowns of 15 yards-or-more but their red zone offense is 19th. They're 16th in red zone touchdown percentage.
The big plays are going to happen but if there's one thing the Patriots defense had traditionally excelled at, it's bending but not breaking. When the Chiefs put up 31 points the second half of the AFC Championship game it was largely fueled by explosive plays, with scoring drives that included just five plays inside the Patriots 20-yard-line. Limiting the explosive plays is important but not as much as buttoning up inside the red zone and holding the Chiefs to field goals.
Just Play
It seems like the Patriots have gotten inside their own heads a little too much in a recent stretch that has seen them go 2-2 in their last four games. The rookie receivers are overthinking and slowing down. The defense has been getting caught in no man's land. The offense seems to ping pong between complicating and simplifying, failing to find a happy medium that plays to their best player's strengths. And then there's Tom Brady, who continues to expect perfection from an imperfect collection of weapons. As Brady himself said on the sidelines during the Houston loss, they're too "robotic."
The Patriots need to get back to just relaxing and playing their game. That goes from the coaching staff all the way down to the role players. Playing uptight against the Chiefs can make for an ugly result because this one has the feel of track meet, where early leads can diminish and mistakes will need to be overcome. Being at home is a nice advantage, especially to be in manageable conditions. It was Week 3 in September the last time it wasn't rainy and miserable for a Patriots home game. The crowd should be ready to go and the team should feed off that energy, get out of their heads and just play football like they're capable.
Prediction
The Patriots usually respond with their best football when it's all on the line, especially in December, but even their best game might not be enough to match scores with the Chiefs. Kansas City is unlikely to hand over this game on a silver platter to the Patriots like so many teams have done this year, so this will be a victory New England must earn. They have the defense and special teams to do it, but no one knows for sure if they have the offense, though the Chiefs defense is not an impenetrable fortress.
Never rule out Tom Brady no matter how things have looked to this point. The Patriots get a season-defining win and get on track for the playoffs.
Patriots 28, Chiefs 27
