The 12-3 New England Patriots finish off their regular season against their divisional rivals the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at 1pm. The Patriots need a win, or a Chiefs loss, to seal up the second seed in the AFC and the valuable playoff bye that comes with it, so expect New England to be locked in despite the Dolphins unimpressive 4-11 record and bottom-of-the-league rankings across all important categories.
Despite their record, the Patriots could certainly use the opportunity to continue developing their offense. In recent weeks they've found some success in the areas that have haunted them most of the season, giving Patriots fans reason to believe this team might have another playoff run in them.
But beating the Dolphins is one thing, beating the Chiefs or Ravens will be another and this will be is a good chance to hone the things they'll need most in the playoffs -- running the ball, assimilating receivers N'Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu and stopping the run.
Here are the Keys to one last regular season win!
Patriots.com's Mike Dussault shares his players to watch during the Patriots Week 17 matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, December 29, 2019.
Tom Brady, QB: It's the last regular season home game of the 2019 season which means it's time to take a moment to appreciate getting to watch the GOAT without everything on the line. Who knows what the future holds for Brady, but there's one last game and another playoff run on the horizon this season and we shouldn't take it for granted.
Elandon Roberts, FB/LB/ST: Roberts' emergence at fullback has given the team another attack option and he had his best game against the Bills. Against Miami's 27nd-ranked run defense, Roberts should once again be a factor in the run game, along with a role on defense and special teams.
Sony Michel, RB: Michel seems to be coming on at the end of the year just like he did last year and that's a good sign for a Patriots offense that badly needs him. Another game of hard running should give them the confidence that Michel can be a playoff factor.
Stephon Gilmore, CB: Gilmore should see plenty of DeVante Parker in the final game of the season, as he tries to put a nice cap on a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season. Currently in a three-way tie for the league lead in interceptions, Gilmore could separate from the pack if he can bait Ryan Fitzpatrick into giving him a late Christmas gift or two.
Kyle Van Noy, LB: After a torrid start, Van Noy has been a bit under the radar in recent weeks but there's no denying he's been the most consistent and well-rounded linebacker on the team this season. He's been equally effective against the run and pass and has developed into one of the best defensive players in the league. He'll be eyeing a big contract this offseason.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: Fitz threw three interceptions and took four sacks in the Week 2 matchup against the Patriots and will need a much better performance if the Dolphins are to have any hope of upsetting New England this time. He's coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 419 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
DeVante Parker, WR: The Dolphins have jettisoned most of their key veteran pieces but Parker is one who remains, turning in the best season of his career with 64 catches for 1065 yards and nine touchdowns. His first matchup against New England was the only game this season he was held without a catch despite seven targets.
Mike Gesicki, TE: Gesicki is another offensive player who has emerged for the Dolphins this year with 47 catches for 536 yards and four touchdowns. The Patriots defense has had some problems with tight ends this season and Gesicki could be the primary passing target in this game.
Christian Wilkins, DT: The 2019 13th-overall pick has played every game this season and figures to be the primary defensive building block for the Dolphins going forward. A disruptive interior force with great power, Wilkins was the recipient of a goal-line touchdown pass last week against the Bengals.
Eric Rowe, CB: Former Patriot Rowe has been Miami's best cornerback this season, playing in every game and almost every meaningful snap. This will be Rowe's second 16-game season, the first was his rookie year with the Eagles. He should be a key outside matchup on rookie N'Keal Harry.
Fast Start
The Patriots can't give the Dolphins any sign of hope in this game, they must come out early, put the hammer down and never look back. The team has said all week that they're looking at this like a playoff game -- win and it essentially counts as a Wild Card Weekend win.
The Dolphins will likely come out ready to put in an effort like last week's that saw their offense throw caution to the win and throw the ball all over the Bengals, finishing with 406 passing yards, easily a season high. They're 25th in points-per-game, 27th on third down and 29th overall in DVOA, but 4-4 in their last eight games and have lost the turnover battle just twice in that stretch.
Miami has been competitive and will play with reckless abandon. Start fast, finish strong and don't let the Dolphins have any fun.
Keep the Offense Rolling
The last two weeks have given the Patriots offense reason for hope that they can be balanced and consistent against a good defense. There's no reason to think they should regress against the Dolphins, who will be looking for an early excuse to pack it in for the offseason.
It's hard to find a statistical cause for concern with the Miami defense -- they're 32nd in points-per-game, 25th on third down and 32nd overall in DVOA. The Patriots have had plenty of cupcakes this season but the Dolphins defense might be the worst unit they've faced.
The offensive line, Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and N'Keal Harry rose to the occasion against the Bills and a second-consecutive successful game for the ancillary weaponry would be a huge confidence boost as the Patriots head to the playoffs. The more they can pull back on Julian Edelman's reps in this game, the better.
Last year they Pats blew out the Jets 38-3 in the season finale, setting the stage for a Super Bowl run. That kind of offensive performance for a second year in a row would be ideal.
The Boogeymen vs. the NFL
Despite the offensive improvement of recent weeks, the strength of the 2019 Patriots is their defense and if this team is to repeat as Super Bowl champs it will be the defense to lead the way.
Can we really learn anything new about The Boogeymen against one of the worst offenses in the NFL? Probably not. But these are the kinds of offenses the Pats D has feasted on most of this season so why not turn in one more dominant performance and put an exclamation point on their standout season?
The Dolphins have been safer with the ball in the second half of the season and, as has been the case this season, the turnovers will decide whether or not this game is close for any period of time.
Adding to their takeaway totals or lowering their 13.2 points-allowed-per-game average would be a nice way to finish the 16-game schedule and send a statement to potential playoff opponents that The Boogeymen are ready to go.
Special Teams finish special
Just as the defense has been outstanding this year, the special teams and especially the punt return/block team have stood out, blocking a team-record four punts and returning two of them for touchdowns. It's been a fascinating special teams season that's seen the team use four different kickers.
Meanwhile, rookie punter Jake Bailey has had one of the best seasons in the NFL. The punt return and kickoff return teams aren't huge threats but Joe Judge has found creative ways for his special teams units to still make contributions. It's hard to remember a season where the special teams have had more obstacles and still made consistent game-changing plays. They'll be vital for field position and game-changing plays in the playoffs.
Another impact special teams play in the regular season finale would be a nice cap to what has been a fascinating season.
Prediction
The Patriots are treating this like a playoff game and that's all you really need to know. With all three units trending towards peak performance here at the end of the regular season, they should be locked in and ready to dispatch a Miami team that is ready to get going on their rebuild this offseason.
It won't be a season-defining performance but it can certainly be a building block for playoff confidence.
