The Patriots will wrap up their 2024 road schedule this weekend in Buffalo against a surging Bills team that is fresh off a big win in Detroit and has lost just once in their last nine games.
Buffalo has already wrapped up the AFC East title and are hoping that the Chiefs might slip up enough over the final three games to give up the top seed in the conference and the valuable playoff bye week that comes with it. KC would have to lose at least two games, giving Buffalo little margin for error over their own final three games that include two matchups against the Patriots.
That means New England should expect a raucous crowd flush with championship aspirations and a Bills team ready to unleash the full fury of their offense which ranks first overall in EPA, second in DVOA and second in total points.
Here are the players to watch on what is expected to be a frigid afternoon in upstate New York.
Drake Maye
Maye has thrown for 1,898 yards, 12 TDs, and nine interceptions, with a 68.5% completion rate this season, while also rushing for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He's completed over 80 percent of his passes in the last two games but both resulted in losses, while he had poor luck with two tipped-ball interceptions. Now, Maye gets a taste of the hardest place to play in the division at the worst time of year against a team that currently owns five straight division titles. It's hard to call this a measuring stick game, but it's at least a chance for Maye to get experience in a difficult environment where he'll have to play every season. Buffalo's defense has disruptive pieces up front with a heavy dose of zone defense behind them. They've allowed some yards to the NFL's elite offenses, and now Maye will see how he and the Patriots offense match up in the first of two matchups in the next three weeks.
"We're getting a chance to play against a playoff-level team and really see what it's like to, 'Hey, these guys are there and where we want to be at.' It kind of gives us a level of, 'Hey, who can make plays for us in these moments?' and it checks the gas tank for ourselves, where we're at and what we're building on," said Maye this week. "So, it's a good test for us, a big test."
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson has rushed for 740 yards with six TDs and a 3.8 yards-per-carry average, adding 32 receptions for 155 yards and a receiving touchdown. Over the last five weeks, he's seen a bit of a resurgence, averaging over four yards per carry for just the third and fourth times this season. Buffalo's run defense is stout, ranking 14th in rushing yards allowed and 6th in rushing defense DVOA, but running the ball must be key for New England to keep Josh Allen off the field. Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, who's averaged over four yards per carry in five straight games himself, will be key players if the Patriots are going to keep Buffalo contained.
Hunter Henry
Henry leads the team with a career-high 62 receptions for 635 yards and a touchdown, and he's just 18 yards away from setting a new high for receiving yardage. The veteran tight end, who re-signed with New England this offseason, is one of the silver linings from the season, as his chemistry with Drake Maye is certainly something the team can count on going forward into 2025 and beyond. Henry's leadership and consistency have easily made him the team's offensive MVP this season. Those traits will be needed going into Buffalo facing one of the best teams in the NFL.
Demario Douglas
The second-year receiver has 508 receiving yards with two touchdowns on 55 receptions but has hit a recent skid with just 31 receiving yards on seven catches over the last two games. Prior to the Colts game, Douglas has posted three-straight games of 50-plus yards and seemed to be finding his stride. Still, Douglas is just seven catches and 53 yards away from topping his rookie totals and has had a productive season. Unlocking his explosiveness in the open field with more catch-and-run plays should help him set new career highs while opening up a needed element to the Patriots attack that has lacked downfield explosiveness.
Marcus Jones
Jones has emerged as a three-way threat this season, setting career highs on defense and special teams while seeing his offensive usage rise recently. He had an 18-yard catch-and-run against the Cardinals, his second offensive touch of the season. As a punt returner, Jones has the second-best average among dedicated returners with a 14.8 yards-per-return average and already has more return yardage than in 2022 when he was named AP First-Team All-Pro. On defense, Jones has logged nine passes defended and an interception while recovering two fumbles. He's on pace to nearly double his snap count on defense from his usage in 2022 (370 defensive snaps). His 70.2 PFF grade for 2024 ranks him 53rd of 216 rated CBs, it's the highest defensive grade of his career as the third year all-around threat is quietly putting together a really solid season. Jones will once again be heavily involved against Buffalo with multiple avenues to impact the game.
Josh Allen
Allen is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season with 3,395 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 484 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. The Bills have topped 30 points in all but three of their games this season, a feat the Patriots haven't accomplished since Week 6 of the 2022 season. Most notable has been Allen's lack of turnovers, a recurring issue that he appears to have finally gotten under control with just five interceptions in 2024 after setting a career-high with 18 last season and a usual average of 13 picks per season. He's well behind that pace this year.
The Patriots beat Allen and the Bills last season for just the second time since 2019, they'll need to thread a similar needle with their best performance of the year to do it again.
"First, I don't know how much he weighs, but this is a big human being here," said Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo this week. "There are rules around tackling quarterbacks, but he also can run you over, run around you, and also still maintain being a passer as he gets outside the pocket. Those are just the challenges that he puts on defenses."
James Cook
After making the Pro Bowl last year in his second season, Cook has continued to ascend as the Bills lead back with 828 rushing yards and a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Cook had just four rushing touchdowns over the first two years of his career before this year's explosion. Stopping the balanced back will be a huge key for the Patriots defense. Cook is a dangerous back who feasts on defenders who give Allen too much attention.
"[James] Cook, they got some good backs as well," said Mayo. "They try to exploit the backs on the linebackers and even sometimes the safeties, but definitely a very explosive player."
Khalil Shakir
Shakir had a quiet first two seasons after the Bills took him in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, making just 49 grabs with three touchdowns. But he's turned into Buffalo's key pass catcher this season, leading the team with 71 catches for 774 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while averaging 10.9 yards per catch. Expect the Bills to get the ball out quick to Shakir and let him do damage after the catch. The Patriots tackling and awareness close to the line of scrimmage must be on point, as Shakir already has a 51-yard touchdown catch this season and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.
Ed Oliver
Oliver anchors the Bills defensive line, disrupting opposing quarterbacks and stuffing the run with his every-down presence. The 2019 first-rounder hasn't replicated his career-high 9.5 sacks from 2023, but remains the key cog for Buffalo's front, registering two sacks, two forced fumbles and 11 QB hits. He will be a formidable challenge for the Patriots young interior linemen that include rookie Layden Robinson and center Ben Brown. Any successful offensive play from the Patriots must include a plan for dealing with the disruptive big man inside.
"To me, it really starts with Ed Oliver," said Mayo. "I think I've been a fan since he was in college, very disruptive player, and you can tell he's really coming to his own and makes this defense go."
Gregory Rousseau
Rousseau leads the Bills with 7.5 sacks, just a half sack away from tying his career high from 2022. He also leads the team with 22 QB hits as his presence off the edge will be a major area of focus for the Patriots offensive tackles. His 82.2 PFF grade ranks 15th at the edge position, while he's in the midst of the best pass-rushing grade of his career. The 2021 first-rounder has found a solid stride in Buffalo's defense and has four sacks in his last six games. He's peaking at the right time for the playoff-hungry Bills
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
