After a difficult overtime loss on the road in Tennessee, the attention turns to the NFL's trade deadline before the Patriots move on to next week's matchup vs. the Bears in Chicago.
Disclaimer: what I'm writing here has zero shelf life. There's a chance you'll read this post after the trade deadline passes and be like, Evan, none of this is relevant anymore. Sorry. There's also the caveat that it's easy to suggest that the Patriots buy or sell at the deadline without knowing the market when these moves might not be available to personnel chief Eliot Wolf before Tuesday's 4 p.m. ET deadline.
That said, I'm in favor of the Patriots attempting to buy at the deadline. While studying the Bears defense, No. 98 for Chicago kept popping off the film. Who is this guy? He's pretty darn good. It turns out that No. 98 is Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat. At last year's trade deadline, Chicago acquired Sweat, who is only 28, from the Commanders, sending a 2024 second-rounder to Washington for the Pro Bowler.
Chicago had a surplus of picks from the Panthers in the Bryce Young trade, and it was somewhat rare that a player of Sweat's caliber was available. Still, New England could easily recoup any picks sent out in a similar trade-down scenario with a QB-needy team next offseason, while teams trade players that aren't a part of their future more often these days.
Philosophically, my stance on this stems from the fact that the Patriots are trying to build toward something here. They're no longer tanking for a top draft pick to land the next prized college quarterback prospect (thank you, Drake). They've been there and done that. Moving forward, they're in talent acquisition mode to build up this roster around Drake Maye.
At some point, New England needs to begin stacking talent on this roster. They should be about adding good football players, not subtracting or stashing draft picks for mystery box items. It's true that the best teams build through the draft, which is why the Patriots need to be smart with their resources. Still, the great teams add through all avenues of talent acquisition.
For example, Kansas City bought free agents like All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and just traded for WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans paid pass-rusher Danielle Hunter and traded for Stefon Diggs. Buffalo traded for Amari Cooper and CB Rasul Douglas. Philly is always a player in the trade market, adding star receiver A.J. Brown, among others. The 49ers traded for star RB Christian McCaffrey at the 2022 trade deadline.
Nearly every NFL contender has been aggressive in the veteran market recently. With its boom-or-bust nature, you can't solely rely on the draft to find players, and that's coming from one of the biggest draft nerds you know. If you aren't turning over every stone, you'll get left behind.
Ultimately, the Patriots are at the mercy of the market. Eliot Wolf cannot create a Montez Sweat trade out of thin air. As we always say, put a name to the claim, and I fully admit that's difficult to do in this scenario. Still, if a talented player whose career arc lines up with Maye's developmental timeline becomes available at a position of need (OT, WR, EDGE), the Patriots should be interested.
Without further ado, let's empty the Patriots Unfiltered mailbag heading into Week 10.
Q: Why does the run game look so stagnant and why aren't they having success off play-action? - Chef Dave
One of life's biggest mysteries is where did the run game go and why can't they generate big plays off play-action. If teams are selling out to stop the run, shouldn't the Pats offense be able to make them pay with play-acton? Honestly, I've been scratching my head about this for weeks.
First, I don't see defenses selling out to stop the run on film now that Maye is at quarterback. That was a problem with Brissett, but it hasn't been lately. Still, the numbers in the run game over the last several games are ugly. Over the last two weeks, the Patriots have generated -40 rushing yards before contact for their running backs, meaning the offensive line isn't generating any movement in the trenches. Lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson ranks top-10 in missed tackles forced (27) and yards after contact (415), so he's churning out yards as well as he can. This, to me, is on AVP and the line.
The outside zone run game that the Patriots wanted to build their early-down offense off of is not working. I gave this coaching staff the benefit of the doubt that it could work with this personnel, but everything happens too slowly, from the blocking to the backs. Stevenson's patience and power are great traits, but outside zone is a one-cut-and-go scheme, while you need to be able to threaten the edge to get the defense flowing. Furthermore, the Pats have struggled to reach blocks on the line of scrimmage when moving horizontally toward the sideline.
Since the outside zone rushes aren't working, the Patriots cannot marry their play-action concepts designed off those runs. For example, boot-action and two-receiver routes (post-cross) designed to hit downfield aren't as effective when they aren't paired with outside zone. As a result, the Patriots rank 22nd in EPA generated off play-action passes.
My read on the situation is that this run game needs to get downhill with duo, power, and trap/counter schemes and then put in some vintage Patriots "bang" play-action plays they used to run with Josh McDaniels. Get those linebackers firing at the line of scrimmage, and then run a second-level crosser or a seam pattern behind them.
Personally, I don't think they're built to run an outside zone scheme. It also hasn't helped that they have zero continuity on the line and are trying to run a rep-heavy system. The easiest thing to do is run block downhill, so get the line moving forward, not horizontal, and get those Brady to Gronk or Edelman play-action passes over the middle back into the playbook.
Q: We seem to be predictable on first down with Rhamondre Stevenson runs. What do the numbers show? - Brady P
At one point on Sunday, I was also skeptical that Van Pelt's early-down play-calling was too predictable, especially because the run game clearly wasn't working vs. the Titans.
New England ran the ball on four consecutive first downs to start the game and gained five yards, one yard, one yard, one yard, and one rush for no gain – it wasn't a great start. However, AVP eventually went away from the run game, finishing the game with 17 first-down passes to 11 runs. Furthermore, the Pats have been very pass-heavy with Maye at quarterback. Since Week 6, New England has the fourth-highest early-down neutral pass frequency in the NFL (59.8%) but is just 28th in EPA generated on those early-down pass attempts (-0.067).
Based on my Twitter/X mentions, it might surprise people that they've been an aggressive early-down pass offense. But the numbers are the numbers. If anything, they need to be more effective throwing the ball on first and second down.
Q: Should the Patriots try to scheme up quarterback runs for Drake Maye? - @ChurleyBoy
Although some plays might have options for him to run, Maye has yet to log a designed run officially. In other words, Maye's 210 rushing yards have solely come on scrambles.
Last week, Van Pelt was asked about incorporating more designed runs for Maye, and he shot down the idea. The Pats OC is mainly worried about subjecting Maye to more body blows.
"I've been in systems where you have quarterback runs and they've led to injury, season ending injury. I know the value of that position. In high leverage situations, fourth-and-one, game-on-the-line maybe, but he's going to make enough plays outside the pocket in normal drop-back, play-action where he scrambles," Van Pelt said last week.
"Ultimately, it's that balance of protecting your quarterback. I have to protect him as well as he has to protect himself."
It's also worth noting that Maye is a great athlete who kills teams on scrambles. But he might not be a Lamar Jackson-type runner who will take over on read-option plays. From this perspective, the Pats could call a designed run in short-yardage or goal-line situations, as they did in the preseason when Maye ran in untouched on a designed run vs. Philly.
However, on the whole, I'd side with AVP in that Maye adds enough yards on scrambles to let his legs factor into the game, while the payoff isn't worth the risk of running him by design.
Q: Are Christian Barmore and Ja'Whau Bentley returning next season enough to fix this defense? - Adam D
Good question. Obviously, having two key players returning next season will be huge. The Patriots miss Barmore and Bentley in so many ways. With Barmore, he gave them an interior penetrator and a pretty darn good two-gapper in the run game. Plus, he was their early-down pass rush last season, making their four-man rushes viable. Without him, the Pats rank 27th in overall pressure rate and 31st in pressure rate from a four-man rush. With Bentley, his ability to condense space and take on bigger blockers was huge. It allowed the Patriots to stop the run from nickel and split-safety shells, which helped their early-down pass defense.
However, there are still two areas of concern from this perspective. First, the jury is still out on DC DeMarcus Covington and Coach Mayo coordinating this defense. I have faith that Covington will grow into the role, and there's only so much a coaching staff can do when the talent is subpar. I'm not crazy about Covington playing so much base defense in response to teams putting heavy personnel on the field. I get they can't stop the run in nickel, but they're 28th in the league in yards allowed while playing base (6.1). They're also 24th in scheming up unblocked pressures at 5.5% after leading the NFL in that stat in 2023 (9.8%).
From a roster-building perspective, don't sleep on their defensive needs. The Pats need an every-down edge rusher, corner and linebacker depth are concerns, and there are still some unknowns at safety. They cannot have another offensive-only draft.
Q: How worried are you about Ja'Lynn Polk? I can't see a scenario where he becomes a regular contributor. - Devon H
Admittedly, I wasn't super high on Polk before the draft, and that's not revisionist history. Polk was ranked as WR12 in my final rankings, and the Patriots drafted him as WR10, so we weren't too far off. My biggest concern with Polk was a lack of dynamic route-running ability to create separation. He caught a lot of contested targets in college, and although he finished through contact well at UW, it's a different level of physicality in the NFL. My ceiling comp for Polk was always a complementary receiver in a good offense, like a Jakobi Meyers-type.
Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I allowed myself to be swayed after a strong training camp. Plus, I'm not an NFL scout. NFL front offices are way better at this than me, so I allow for the fact that I just might be very wrong about a player. With that in mind, I'm not giving up Polk nine games into his rookie season. My hope is that he adjusts to NFL-level coverage, and we start to see him finish through contact more consistently. Whether that skill translated would always decide his fate as a pro.
Q: Is Cole Strange returning any time soon? Another option would be nice to have on the offensive line. - Jason H
Based on conversations with Strange and reporting by others on the beat, it sounds like he could factor into things here soon. A few weeks ago, HC Jerod Mayo also stated that Strange is looking more like an "NFL player" in his rehab, meaning he's getting closer. The question is, where does he play? My film studies recently have shown some drop-off for LG Michael Jordan, so maybe Strange, an athletic guard who fits this scheme, could slide back in there. There's also a chance that the Pats experiment with him at center. But that's probably more of a training camp thing rather than a mid-season move. It wouldn't be surprising to see Strange rep at center in training camp next summer.
Q: Any concerns about going after Tee Higgins in the offseason with his re-occurring hamstring injury keeping him out of games? - BM
Higgins has had some nagging soft tissue injuries over the years, which is mildly concerning. However, this is life as an organization that doesn't draft well at wide receiver. If he's an unrestricted free agent, do the Patriots really have a choice but to be in the running for Higgins? They should explore the veteran trade market to make sure Higgins is their best option, but eventually, they'll need to take a plunge on a veteran receiver.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
