The good news for the Patriots is that it appears they've hit on a quarterback with rookie Drake Maye. Although he's still in the development phase of his career, Maye's talent is undeniable, as the third-overall pick is beginning to win over even his biggest detractors. Maye needs to clean up certain aspects to round out his game, like cutting down on turnover-worthy plays, but you still have to feel good about his franchise quarterback potential moving forward.
As for what's around Maye, that's where things are more murky. There are several different directions that personnel chief Eliot Wolf could take things this offseason. New England currently holds the fourth overall pick in the 2025 draft at 3-9. The Patriots are also projected to have a league-high $132.5 million in cap space. With one of the largest war chests in the NFL, Wolf will have options to improve this roster during the four-year window when Maye will be affordable on his rookie contract.
That said, the first step New England must take is identifying where their biggest roster holes are before they can start trying to fill them. After taking in the first 12 games of the season, the Patriots defense is suddenly further away than the offense. You could argue that they'll get a fully healthy Christian Barmore, Ja'Whaun Bentley, and possibly Jabrill Peppers back next season to get this unit back on track. But there are still holes to fill, and the numbers are becoming increasingly alarming.
After allowing 34 points in a 19-point loss to the Dolphins, including 24 straight in the second quarter, the Patriots defense is now 28th in EPA per play, 30th in EPA per drop-back, 18th in points allowed, 19th on third down, 17th in red zone defense, and 26th in team pressure rate. It's fair to say they're multiple pieces along the offensive line and at least one bonafide No. 1 receiver away on offense. Still, with Maye's potential, you can add finishing pieces around him at left tackle and receiver.
Defensively, there are areas where they lack talent, and the coaching is going through its growing pains. From this perspective, Wolf cannot afford another offensive-minded offseason. The Patriots need to go into the offseason with their eyes wide open about the issues on defense, with three clear needs in my book: cornerback depth, edge rusher, and inside linebacker depth.
At corner, the Patriots should feel good about top CB Christian Gonzalez. Like with Maye on offense, they have a stud in Gonzo who can shadow star receivers. However, veteran Jonathan Jones is on the back nine of his career and is entering free agency. Marcus Jones can be a top-three corner in a rotation, but he's undersized to play on the perimeter, with his best role being in the slot. Next, second-year CB Alex Austin has battled injuries and has yet to take a year-two leap.
On the edge of the defense, New England must find a finisher in the pass rush who is a worthy replacement for Matthew Judon. The Pats rank 31st in pressure rate from a four-man rush. They're struggling to get home without blitzing while starting outside linebackers Keion White and Anfernee Jennings are better early-down edge setters than pass rushers. The Pats at least need a Joshua Uche type to kick White inside or take Jennings's spot in the third-down pass rush.
Lastly, the Patriots surrender too many yards in the middle of the field, ranking 28th in EPA per pass between the numbers (+0.43). Depending on Peppers's long-term standing with the team, you could point to a potential hole at safety while their linebackers are also vulnerable in pass coverage. Furthermore, when they lost Bentley for the season, they struggled to fill his shoes. Bentley is great, but you have to be better prepared to lose key players to injuries than the Pats were at linebacker.
The good news is that impact defenders often become available in the veteran market. At corner, names like Charvarious Ward, Carlton Davis, and D.J. Reed are pending free agents. Pass rushers also get moved frequently, like the Patriots signing Judon a few years ago or Danielle Hunter landing with the Texans last offseason. There will be vets available to bolster the defense as a team that can compete at the top of the market.
As for the draft, this is considered a strong class on defense. There are several big-name prospects at corner, such as Travis Hunter (Colorado) and Will Johnson (Michigan), while the edge rusher class is considered deep into day two in the 2025 draft. Although it's a bad year to need a quarterback and possibly an OT, it's a great year to fill holes on defense.
Many of you will read this take as a call to arms. Look, nobody is saying the Patriots are set on offense. They're probably two tackles and a No. 1 receiver away, and that might be being generous. However, building a stout defense so that Maye doesn't need to score 30-plus points every week to win games is also helping out your young quarterback.
Let's empty the Patriots Unfiltered mailbag heading into Week 13.
Q: Are the Patriots underachievers with this roster, or are they exactly what they're supposed to be? - Yrocaj S
This is a question that I'm asking myself every week. The bottom line is it's a little bit of everything right now for the Patriots. The coaching, especially in certain competitive losses, has hurt them. I'm on the record with my feelings about how they handled the Titans game (O-Line shake-up, end-of-half, overtime approach) and didn't like their defensive game plan against the Rams (blitzing Stafford). However, it's a bit surprising that everyone is freaking out about where they're at after a loss like Sunday's to the Dolphins: what were you expecting this season?
Right now, the Pats have three wins with five games to go, meaning they've got a real chance to tie or exceed last year's win total with a green coaching staff, a rookie quarterback, and a roster that wasn't one offseason away from competing. Ya, it's been ugly at times. Still, this is about where I thought they'd be. Maye is showing flashes of a franchise-caliber quarterback, but the roster is still too far away to be competitive while the coaches are learning on the job.
Belichick was 5-11 in his first season in New England, Andy Reid was also 5-11 in Philly, Dan Campbell went 3-13-1 in his first year in Detroit, and Kyle Shanahan went 6-10 in year one with the Niners. If they're in the same spot next year, we can start talking about where they're heading under Mayo. For now, you're being unrealistic if you thought this would be a one-year turnaround.
Q: Is QB Drake Maye simply doing too much on these turnovers, or is it something that he's doing or seeing incorrectly? - Owen
Although there are some similarities, Maye's turnovers aren't all the same. My read on his two turnovers in Sunday's game was that he was trying to do too much to get his team back in the game. On the strip-sack fumble, it looked like Maye was trying to spin out of the sack, losing his ability to protect the ball. On his fourth-quarter interception, Maye wanted to throw to Pop Douglas, but the receiver didn't look for the ball vs. the blitz. Maye then tried to check it down with a free blitzer bearing down, and the pressure caused a tipped INT.
My hope is that his turnover worthy-plays lessen when Maye doesn't need to press to make plays. Hopefully, the Pats stop putting him in positions where he needs to risk it because they're trailing in games. I'd also chalk the third-and-13 pick to end the Rams comeback bid up to a "need a play" mindset. I'm okay with shooting from the hip occasionally in the name of being a playmaker. However, Maye is committing TWPs at a league-high, and something has to give there. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a rookie quarterback with a limited supporting cast.
Q: With very little hope of making the playoffs, is it time to experiment with rookies in the lineup? - @TheHotHandPicks
We're nearing a point where the Patriots might want to prioritize getting some reps for their rookies over vets, but we might be a few games away from the rookie takeover. Although it seems like a no-brainer to let the kids play, you have to remember that you still want to compete and don't want to leave others in vulnerable positions, especially Maye, for long stretches. Using the last few weeks as a test for the rookies is one thing, but a lot can go wrong in a five-game sample.
Plus, the coaching staff might feel like they owe it to some guys to finish out the string. Remember, these vets have been grinding away since back in the spring, so benching them for the rest of the season might not go over well in the locker room. We could see the first-year guys play in January for evaluation purposes and to get them some in-game experience for 2025. However, in fairness to the vets, they should be allowed to finish what they started to an extent this season.
Q: Hi Evan, using Schooler on defense has been a successful trick. Do you believe he can be used more on defense to give them an injection of speed? - Clare C
First of all, hello Claire (best British accent). Out of everything this staff has done this season, the "Longhorn" package with Schooler is my favorite wrinkle. He played a coverage rep as a flat defender and sacked Tua on a blitz on Sunday. The sack was one of the few bright spots for the defense in a rough performance. It was a good scheme and execution.
Schooler can be useful on third down as a spy/blitzer in their man coverage schemes. I wouldn't mind seeing him play five or so snaps a game in that role, and my guess is he will with mobile quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen on their schedule to close out the season.
Q: It seems like the last few years the Patriots were among the league-leaders in nickel or big nickel defense. Why are they playing so much base defense this year? - Alan W
Alan, this is one of the more perplexing coaching decisions the Patriots have made all season. Despite being ranked 30th in yards per play (6.3), they're playing base defense at the second-highest rate in the NFL (43.4%). Big nickel package might be off the table without Jabrill Peppers, but they could get to the same grouping with Kyle Dugger, Marte Mapu, and Jaylinn Hawkins/Jonathan Jones at free safety. For a defense that lacks team speed in their base package, playing so much base is one thing that I'll continue to ask Mayo and DC DeMarcus Covington about.
Q: With so many holes on the team, at what point is it worth it to just trade draft picks for NFL-caliber players? - David J
To be clear, I'm not a screw-them-picks guy completely. The Patriots first-round pick this year is off the table, while it would take something major to part with their second-rounder. Still, the veteran trade market can be fruitful. Teams have added some great talent over the years by trading non-premium draft capital for proven veteran talent. For the Patriots, especially with how rocky the draft has been, I'm all for shopping around their draft picks to see if they can trade for talent. Like I said at the trade deadline, this team needs to start adding talent to the roster by any means necessary. They should be open to all avenues of player accusation, even if that means parting with picks.
Q: Where do the Patriots go from here? Will there be coaching staff changes or is it chalked up to inexperience? - @BBallBryan22
One thing that stood out to me when Coach Mayo introduced his coordinator hires was that he said he might not get it right with every coach on the first try. Hearing Mayo admit that some of his coaching hires could fail was interesting. From his own words, we have to assume that shake-ups to the coaching staff will be a possibility if Mayo thinks a position group or an entire unit isn't performing to the standard. He should have an open mind about that, even if it means cutting ties with coaches he has a relationship with dating back to the Belichick era. With each coaching cycle comes different free-agent coaches who might not have been available last offseason, so all options to improve the Patriots should be on the table.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
