With the Patriots season winding down, the focus quickly turns to the 2025 offseason in New England.
Although they have several holes to fill, the one the Patriots absolutely cannot ignore is the offensive line. Every discussion about offseason plans at 1 Patriot Place should start and end with, "What is the best way to upgrade the offensive line for our young quarterback?"
The Patriots offensive line is dead-last in both pass-blocking and run-blocking win rates, per ESPN analytics. Here are the win rate rankings for the top-five teams in the NFL (Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Vikings, and Bills): 2/2, 10/13, 3/8, and 6/20. The Pats starting group features the 72nd and 80th-rated tackles in Pro Football Focus's grading and the 41st-ranked center. They need not one but two starting tackles, have an open competition at left guard, and are banking on a 32-year-old David Andrews returning next season — they've got a long way to go before they're fielding a competitive unit.
Football is won and lost in the trenches, which might sound cliche, but the metrics back it up. Right now, the Pats are losing in the trenches on a weekly basis, and until that changes, it's hard to envision their offense being viable, even if Drake Maye is paired with a stud receiver.
The most important offseason question for personnel chief Eliot Wolf is, what's the best way to rebuild their offensive line? In the draft, the top OTs have question marks about their best positions in the NFL. Top offensive line prospect Will Campbell (LSU) is expected to be right on the 33-inch threshold for arm length to play tackle at the next level, while some teams reportedly view Texas's Kelvin Banks as a guard as well.
In free agency, the Broncos locked up stud left tackle Garrett Bolles, so that's a top target off the board. One would also expect the Ravens to maintain control on starter Ronnie Stanley, possibly with the franchise tag, leaving current Vikings stop-gap Cam Robinson as the top projected free-agent tackle.
Unless the draft process reveals that Banks or Campbell is a more sure-fire solution, Wolf will need to choose wisely in an iffy tackle market. Still, the Pats EVP of Player Personnel has to aggressively pursue upgrades along the offensive line, with the onus on the personnel department and player development to make it work.
Without further ado, let's empty the Patriots Unfiltered mailbag heading into Week 16.
Q: With the Raiders and Giants being QB-needy teams, there's a real possibility that Travis Hunter could be on the board for the Patriots. Do you see him as a wide receiver or corner in the NFL? - Cory P
Although the Raiders (first overall) and Giants (second overall) are QB-needy teams, I'm skeptical that they'll both take quarterbacks. The Sanders family is lobbying Vegas hard to take Shadeur, so maybe that happens. Sanders has the raw skill set that NFL teams covet at the position nowadays: arm talent, mobility, poise, and off-script play creation. Still, Sanders and Miami QB Cam Ward aren't considered to be in the same weight class as Maye, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels in what's a weaker year for quarterbacks. I'm wondering if the Giants, in particular, look for the Baker Mayfield career revival-type move before taking a swing in the draft. If they retain Daboll, maybe it's throwing a short-term starter contract at Sam Darnold. If it doesn't work out, they'll likely be picking in the top-10 again next season to get a quarterback.
As for Hunter, his body type and movement skills appear to be a more natural fit at corner. He's got the foot quickness to mirror in man coverage while possessing elite closing burst to make plays on the ball. However, there's a positional value conversation here that could push Hunter, who is likely being advised by Deion to maximize his earning potential, to wide receiver. Receivers get paid more than corners in today's NFL. Hunter has the separation ability, ball skills, and feel for zone coverage to be a great receiver at the next level. But the whispers around the league suggest that NFL teams view him as a cornerback.
Q: Would you rather have Travis Hunter or trade down for more picks? Personally, I'd rather end up with one of the stud tackles, but that's just me. - Joel L
My feelings on this draft class haven't changed. To compare this year's class to last year's draft, there were eight blue-chip prospects in 2024: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison Jr., Nabers, Odunze, Alt, and Bowers. I'm struggling to find blue-chippers in the 2025 draft. Hunter certainly is one, Penn State's Abdul Carter is trending up, Campbell will be if he measures out as a tackle, and you could make a case for both Michigan defenders (Mason Graham, Will Johnson). But, outside of Hunter, this draft has more concerns than the 2024 class.
Considering that, this feels like a trade-down year for the Patriots. The talent discrepancy between the No. 3 overall pick and, let's say, picking in the 8-10 range isn't all that much. It would make more sense to trade down into that range for Campbell (pending arm length), Texas OT Kelvin Banks, or Arizona WR Tet McMillan while accumulating more draft capital. However, without a prized quarterback prospect, it's harder to envision a scenario where New England gets a haul for their pick. Maybe a team falls in love with Hunter, but you won't get the compensation for Hunter that you would if a team were trading up for a quarterback. If they have to stick and pick, my feeling is take the cleanest prospect, which might end up being Hunter or Carter, even if neither plays offensive tackle or wide receiver at the next level.
Q: Convince me that Tee Higgins is "the guy" for the Patriots deserving of a lucrative free-agent contract. - Griffin D
Some fans are lukewarm on the idea of giving Higgins $25-30 million a year in free agency next March. It's understandable to have some hesitations about paying Higgins, a likely mid-tier WR1, at the top of the market. However, a top receiver entering his age 26 season rarely hits unrestricted free agency. Higgins is in a unique situation where a smaller market team like the Bengals has to pay monster contracts to QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja'Marr Chase, so there might not be enough money left over for Higgins.
To get a player of Higgins's caliber for the prime years of his career for just money rather than via trade would be huge. When he's on the field, Higgins's 17-game pace is 95 catches for 1,234 yards and 11 scores this season. He projects perfectly into an 'X' receiver role, giving the Pats a true alpha on the outside who can win in isolation or dictate coverage as an intermediate separator and downfield ball-winner. Higgins's skill set also doesn't overlap with the pieces they currently have (tight ends, Pop Douglas, Kendrick Bourne) and would give New England a much-needed outside presence that defenses would have to respect.
Is there risk to signing Higgins? Yes. But the Pats don't have the luxury to be picky. Higgins would instantly be their best receiver.
Q: With AJ Brown's sudden issues with Hurts, do you think it is possible we could be able to get Brown in a trade? I'd also love to hear other possible WR trades that you may have your sights on! - Anthony P
My guess is that cooler heads will prevail in Philly, with Brown and Hurts getting on the same page. In terms of the realistic trade targets, I'll give you one: Packers WR Christian Watson. Watson, who needs a new contract, would pair excellently as a field stretcher with Maye. Watson is a soft-tissue injury guy, so there's some risk, but he's an explosive, physical specimen who would immediately upgrade the wide receiver room. Plus, personnel chief Eliot Wolf has the Green Bay connection to broker a deal with old pal Brian Gutekunst. Watson might not move the needle for everyone, but he'd add a much-needed big-play threat on the outside.
Q: What do you think the likelihood is that the Patriots will target Browns OT Jedrick Wills in free agency? Any other free-agent tackles stand out? - Jimmy M
There's an obvious connection between Wills and the Patriots current offensive staff, with OC Alex Van Pelt and line coach Scott Peters coaching him in Cleveland. Wills has legit starting experience in this system at left tackle. However, he has struggled to stay healthy, with his last fully healthy season coming in 2022 (eight games in 2023, five so far in 2024). If that's their move, Wills is a more proven commodity on the left side than Chuks Okorafor was, but it has to come at the right price, and Wills can't be the only tackle with starter upside they acquire. They'd have to also use a top-50 pick on an OT for me to feel comfortable with that plan.
I'd make a run at current Vikings LT Cam Robinson, who will likely be the top OT in free agency but would bow out if the money gets crazy. Robinson would be an upgrade over Vederian Lowe, but you have to be careful about paying a premium for average starters. The other bridge-type tackle that I'd kick the tires on is Alaric Jackson. He's in a similar West Coast offense with the Rams as he would be with the Pats and could hold down the position until their prospects are ready.
As you can see by these options, acquiring OTs via free agency is always a dice roll. You're not getting a franchise left tackle on the open market. That'll have to come via the draft.
Q: Do you really think all the sudden hate for Dugger is justified? Yes, he's had a rough few games, but he hasn't been 100% healthy this season, either. Isn't it fair to assume he's better than his last few games and might still be an impact player next season? - Ed L
I've always been a Dugger fan. He has his warts in coverage, but he was making up for those limitations with consistent splash plays on the ball. Dugger can be an impact player if you pair him with a steady partner, like he had with Devin McCourty. But the less he's see-ball-get-ball, the more problems arise, and I wonder how much a more mentally taxing role is causing his struggles. Could having Jabrill Peppers back next to him help? Sure. Shaking off his ankle injury and whatever else has hurt his confidence would also go a long way. I'm not ready to give up on Dugger. He's a much better football player than what he has shown since returning from injury, and he'll be better in 2025.
Q: What do y'all think Alex Van Pelt's future is with the Patriots? The route trees for these receivers are too often bunched and easy to defend, and his play calling is far too conservative and predictable in key moments. Most importantly, it appears that he and Drake Maye are incompatible. For example, Maye doesn't have a single designed run despite leading the league in YPC. - Stephen M
My general feeling on Van Pelt is that he has done his job relatively well considering the limited roster. It was a rough start, but the offense is building toward something with Maye, and Van Pelt deserves credit for more creativity in the second half of the season and for Maye's development. Specifically, Maye's footwork and in-structure timing have improved from his UNC days, and some of the credit goes to coaching.
My read on the lack of designed QB runs is that it's a philosophical choice at 3-11. The coaches have spoken about using designed QB runs in high-leverage situations. I wonder if we'd see more of that, like the Bills do with Josh Allen, if these games down the stretch had bigger stakes. Exposing Maye to more body blows might win them a game or two, but is it worth the injury risk? When they're hopefully competing for a playoff berth in the future, that's when it's worth the risk to run Maye by design.
Your nitpicks about the routes and conservative play-calling are fair. We are going on three years now where the Pats have spacing issues with their routes, while I've been on AVP for the lack of production off play-action, which I believe to be a design issue. I'd also like to see the Patriots be more aggressive offensively. Let Drake loose and see what he can do. What have you got to lose? They'll be good learning experiences for him if he fails, and if he succeeds, then great.
Barring a complete collapse in the final three games, my guess is they'll move forward with Van Pelt in 2025. He has done well with Maye, the offense is showing more schematic wrinkles and has been more productive with Maye at QB. That said, they can't have four straight games like the one in Arizona to end the season. Then, you have to consider making changes to the coaching staff.
Q: How much do we trust Eliot Wolf to run the draft and free agency next offseason? - Robert E
If you're feeling wary of Wolf after last offseason, which has admittedly not produced much outside of Drake Maye and role players like Austin Hooper and Antonio Gibson, it's understandable. Until he proves otherwise, Wolf is going to have doubters.
My pro-Wolf argument would be this. First, last offseason wasn't the year for the Patriots to go all-out in free agency. They had a first-time head coach, a completely new coaching staff, and were drafting a rookie quarterback. The time to push your chips in the middle is when you're in a win-now window, which the Pats are about to be with Maye looking like a hit. Secondly, you also need multiple good drafts to build a winning team, and when you're using the No. 3 pick on a quarterback, it impacts the timeline to build up the rest of the roster. You couldn't realistically draft a franchise quarterback, a No. 1 wide receiver, and a starting left tackle in one year. As someone who pours a lot into draft prep every year, it's very challenging to find starter-level talent outside the top-50, trust me. You're talking about a 25 percent hit rate on day two, and we're playing the lottery after that. It's tough.
To me, this is the big offseason for Wolf. He has the quarterback, a projected league-high $132 million in cap space, and likely another top-five pick with four draft selections in the top 100 (one via ATL). New England should be major players this offseason, and with the freedom to build around their young QB, it's go time for this regime.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
