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The New England Patriots will close out the season with at home against the Buffalo Bills. It will be the second meeting of the 2024 season between the two teams and the second meeting in a three-week span. The Patriots traveled to Buffalo on Dec. 22 and fell, 24-21, after taking a 14-0 lead

SERIES HISTORY

New England and Buffalo will meet for second time in a three-week stretch, an occurrence that has happened in 1977, 1983, 1998 and 2021. Last season, the Patriots and Bills split the annual series with the Patriots taking a 29-25 win at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 22 and Buffalo winning 27-21 in the rematch in Orchard Park on Dec. 31. The Patriots lost in the first meeting, 24-21, on Dec. 22.

This week's game will be the 131st meeting between the two teams. New England holds a 78-51-1 edge in the series and has won 37 of the last 49 regular season games between the clubs, dating back to 2000. The Patriots are 40-24 all-time in games played against Buffalo at home, including 17-5 at Gillette Stadium.

The series between the AFC East rivals began in 1960. The Patriots' 78 wins over the Bills are their highest victory total over any opponent, four higher than their next highest win total against the New York Jets (75).

After seven-straight series sweeps and 15-consecutive Patriots wins from 2003-10, Buffalo ended the streak with a 34-31 victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium in the first meeting between the teams in 2011. The 15-game win streak is tied for the longest streak over a single opponent in team history with 15-straight wins over the New York Jets.

The teams have had many memorable matchups over the years, including a span from 1999 to 2001, where four-of-six contests were decided in overtime

SERIES BREAKDOWN

Home Record: 40-24

• Record in Foxboro: 34-19
• Foxboro Stadium: 17-14
• Gillette Stadium: 17-5
• Record in Boston: 6-5

Road Record: 38-27-1

• War Memorial Stadium: 7-6-1
• Ralph Wilson/Rich Stadium/New Era/Highmark: 31-21

Largest Margin of Victory: 46 points (2007)

Largest Margin of Defeat: 35 points (1970)

Longest Win Streak: 15 games (2003-2010)

Sean McDermott vs. New England: 8-8

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots

Matchups are extremely hard to predict in Week 18 games with nothing on the line, and that's exactly where the Patriots and Bills themselves to close the season. For New England it's simply a case of playing out the string, although with possession of the No. 1 overall pick there is at least one item at stake. For Buffalo, which is locked into the 2 seed in the AFC, it's about staying healthy and getting ready for the playoffs. When healthy and engaged, the Bills run defense hasn't been great for most of the season. Many opponents have tried to establish the run against a Bills front that allows 4.7 yards per carry, which ranks 25th in the league, but early deficits have often eliminated that portion of the game. That's one reason why the Bills only allow 117.9 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them in the middle of the pack at 13. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots play it in the finale with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Does Alex Van Pelt lean on the veterans to run the ball, or does he give rookie Terrell Jennings some carries to see he has potential for more in 2025?

When the Patriots pass - Edge: Bills

This matchup may be even tougher to call considering the status of Drake Maye. The rookie took a shot early in the loss to the Chargers but cleared concussion protocol and returned to the game. But he also took a number of big hits in the second half of that loss, and he was slow to get up after a couple of them. Might Jerod Mayo opt to keep his young quarterback healthy heading into the offseason? That's certainly in play, and that might give an opportunity to fellow rookie Joe Milton, who could get an audition for the backup role in 2025. Either way, they'll likely be facing some new faces in the Bills secondary, one that Maye exploited in the first quarter two weeks ago in Orchard Park. The Bills secondary of Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson with safeties Damar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis has struggled, as has former first-round pick Kaiir Elam. Elam had three penalties in the first meeting and likely will be in action on Sunday with the Bills expected to get some rest for key starters. Regardless of the quarterback, the Patriots haven't been able to get the necessary protection from the guys up front nor the separation from the receivers to get significant production in the passing game.

When the Bills run - Edge: Bills

Buffalo's ground game has been outstanding all season long, and even without the legs of Josh Allen the Bills can be successful. Even if Allen plays it's unlikely that he would build upon his gaudy rushing numbers – 102 carries, 531 yards and 12 touchdowns – since Sean McDermott will want to make sure to keep him healthy. James Cook is just 19 yards short of 1,000 so McDermott will likely try to get his third-year back that milestone before holding him back as well. Cook also has a league-leading 15 rushing touchdowns. Even if Cook has a short day, rookie Ray Davis (98-378-3) and third-down back Ty Johnson (39-200-1) have been productive as well. Johnson closes out the win over the Patriots two weeks ago with four straight carries to kill the clock. The Chargers racked up 147 yards on the ground a week ago, and the Bills will likely want to keep the clock moving on Sunday as they head toward the postseason. Given the Patriots struggles stopping the run this season, including in the first meeting, expect Buffalo to move the ball on the ground in the finale.

When the Bills pass - Edge: Bills

Expect McDermott to allow Allen to extend his streak of consecutive starts to 113 straight games, but don't expect him to get much more than a preseason-like cameo. That would put Mitchell Trubisky in the lineup, which should give the Bills at least the opportunity to move the ball through the air with an experienced backup. Rookie Keon Coleman should see some targets while the Bills likely look to lessen the load on Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper. Tyrell Shavers took the first reception of his career 69 yards for a touchdown off a screen from Trubisky last week against the Jets and he should see some action as well. Christian Gonzalez left the Chargers game in the second quarter with a concussion and his status is uncertain for the finale. Without him, the Patriots secondary will struggle even against the Bills backups, especially considering the lack of pressure they've put on opposing quarterbacks most of the season.

Special Teams - Edge: Patriots

The Patriots best performer on special teams all season has been Marcus Jones, and now the dynamic punt returner is on injured reserve. He was replaced by veteran Alex Erickson, who hasn't had many opportunities in his two games with just a pair of returns under his belt. The punt coverage unit was fortunate that a long Chargers touchdown was called back for an illegal block last week, as there was ample room for Derius Davis to elude tacklers. Both kickers have settled down after some periods of inconsistency this season as Tyler Bass and Joey Slye have been perfect the last two weeks. Buffalo's Brandon Codrington handles punts and kicks and has some big plays to his credit. He took a kick back 53 yards earlier in the season and averages 27.1 yards on nine attempts, and 11.6 yards on 27 punt returns including a 29-yarder. Ray Davis also handles kicks for Buffalo but hasn't been able to turn in any big plays in that department.

QUICK HITS

• The Patriots have recorded 78 wins over the Bills, the most by the Patriots against any one opponent. The Jets are second on that list with 75 wins by the Patriots.
• The Buffalo Bills snapped a streak of 13-straight road losses to the Patriots, including 12-straight wins by the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with their 17-9 win in the 2014 regular season finale on Dec. 28, 2014.

TALE OF THE TAPE

CONNECTIONS

FORMER PATRIOTS

• None

FORMER BILLS

• DB Alex Austin: 2023 (Rd. 7, Pick 252)
• TE Coach Bob Bicknell: 2010-11 (Tight Ends), 2012 (Wide Receivers)
• Off. Coord. Alex Van Pelt: 1994-03 (QB), 2006-07 (Off. Quality Control), 2008 (Quarterbacks), 2009 (Off. Coord./Quarterbacks)

WHAT TO LOOK FOR...

• QB Drake Maye has thrown a touchdown pass in eight-straight games after his 36-yard touchdown pass to WR DeMario Douglas in the second quarter vs. the L.A. Chargers, the longest such streak by a rookie in franchise history. He entered the game tied with Jim Plunkett (1971) for seven-straight games with a touchdown pass. The NFL rookie record is 13-straight games by Peyton Manning with Indianapolis in 1998 and Baker Mayfield in 2018 with Cleveland. Maye's streak is the longest for a rookie in the NFL since Justin Herbert had a streak of 10 in 2020.
• Maye connected on a 36-yard touchdown pass to WR DeMario Douglas in the second quarter, his fourth touchdown pass of at least 30 yards. Maye's four touchdown passes of least 30 yards are the most by the team since Mac Jones had five such passes in 2022. The only other rookie quarterback with at least four 30-yard touchdown passes this season is QB Jayden Daniels of Washington, who also has 4.
• Maye has a 66.8 completion percentage (225-of-337) so far in 2024. The highest completion percentage for an NFL rookie quarterback was 67.8 in 2016 by Dallas QB Dak Prescott. The highest completion percentage in a season for the Patriots is Tom Brady in 2007 with a 68.9 completion percentage (398-578).
• Maye is averaging 7.80 yards per rush with 54 rushing attempts for 421 yards. The highest rushing average for an NFL quarterback in a single season is 8.45 by Michael Vick in 2006 with Atlanta when he had 123 rushing attempts for 1,039 rushing yards. If Maye holds that average, it would be the sixth-highest among all NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 rushing attempts.

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson moved into ninth place on the New England all-time rushing list with 3,066 yards and needs 115 rushing yards against Buffalo to move past Corey Dillon (3,180) into eighth place on the all-time list.
• Stevenson has a career-high 7 rushing touchdowns in 2024 and needs 3 rushing touchdowns against Buffalo to reach 10 touchdowns for the season. If he does, it will mark the 17th time in team history that a player has reached at least 10 rushing touchdowns in a season. The last Patriots player to have 3 rushing touchdowns in a game was RB Damien Harris vs. Buffalo on Dec. 26, 2021.

• TE Hunter Henry enters this week's game fifth on New England's list among tight ends with 19 touchdowns. If he registers 1 touchdown reception this week against the Bills, he will be the fifth New England tight end to reach 20 touchdown receptions with the team.
• Henry has two games with 8 receptions in 2024 – vs. Seattle (9/15) and at Jacksonville (10/20). If he records 8 or more receptions against the Bills, he will be the first New England tight end since TE Rob Gronkowski in 2017 with at least three 8-plus reception games.
• Henry enters this week ranked fifth among New England tight ends with 199 receptions and needs 1 reception against the Chargers this week to become the fifth New England tight end to reach 200 receptions.

• CB Christian Gonzalez returned a fumble 63 yards for a touchdown at Miami on Nov. 24. If Gonzalez scores on defense this week, he will be the first Patriots player with at least 2 defensive touchdowns in a single season since S Kyle Dugger had 3 defensive touchdowns in 2023, the most for the team since the 1970 merger.

BROADCAST INFORMATION

TELEVISION: This week's game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Spero Dedes will handle play-by-play duties with Adam Archuleta as the color analyst. Aditi Kinkhabwala will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Jason Ross and directed by Mark Grant.

LOCAL RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub is the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. A complete listing of the network's 33 stations can be found here. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.

For information on how to stream the game please visit our Ways to Watch guide.

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