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Game Preview: Patriots at Bills

The New England Patriots travel to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday, December 22 at 4:25 PM.

2024-GamePreview-wk16-bills

WEEK 16 · Sun 12/22 · 4:25 PM EST

Patriots

New England Patriots

AT

Bills

Buffalo Bills

CBS / WBZ
98.5 FM The Sports Hub
HIGHMARK STADIUM

PATRIOTS: Game Release (PDF) | Roster | Depth Chart | Stats
BILLS: Roster | Depth Chart | Stats | Roster Flip-Card (PDF coming soon)

The New England Patriots will head for their final road game of the 2024 season when they travel to Buffalo to face the AFC East Division Champion Buffalo Bills. The Patriots and Bills will face each other in a rematch in the final week of the season at Gillette Stadium. The time and date of that game has not been set. Last season, the two teams split the annual series with each team winning at home.

SERIES HISTORY

Home Record: 40-24

  • Record in Foxboro: 34-19
  • Foxboro Stadium: 18-14
  • Gillette Stadium: 17-5
  • Record in Boston: 6-5

Road Record: 38-26-1

  • War Memorial Stadium: 7-6-1
  • Ralph Wilson/Rich Stadium/New Era/Highmark: 31-20

Largest Margin of Victory: 46 points (2007)

Largest Margin of Defeat: 35 points (1970)

Longest Win Streak: 15 games (2003-2010)

Sean McDermott vs. New England: 7-8

SERIES BREAKDOWN

New England and Buffalo will meet for the first of two scheduled contests in 2024 within a three-game span, an occurrence that has happened in 1977, 1983, 1998 and 2021. Last season, the Patriots and Bills split the annual series with the Patriots taking a 29-25 win at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 22 and Buffalo winning 27-21 in the rematch in Orchard Park on Dec. 31.

This week's game will be the 130th meeting between the two teams. New England holds a 78-50-1 edge in the series and has won 37 of the last 48 regular season games between the clubs, dating back to 2000. The Patriots are 38-26-1 all-time in games played in Buffalo, including a 31-20 record at Highmark Stadium.

The series between the AFC East rivals began in 1960. The Patriots 78 wins over the Bills are their highest victory total over any opponent, four higher than their next highest win total against the New York Jets (75). After seven-straight series sweeps and 15-consecutive Patriots wins from 2003-10, Buffalo ended the streak with a 34-31 victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium in the first meeting between the teams in 2011. The 15-game win streak is tied for the longest streak over a single opponent in team history with 15-straight wins over the New York Jets.

The teams have had many memorable matchups over the years, including a span from 1999 to 2001, where four-of-six contests were decided in overtime.

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots

The Bills run defense hasn't been great for most of the season, and the Patriots have run it better as of late. The problem for Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson may be the Bills offense. Many opponents have tried to establish the run against a Bills front that allows 4.7 yards per carry, which ranks 24th in the league, but early deficits have often eliminated that portion of the game. That happened to the Lions last week as Buffalo raced out to an early 14-point lead and never allowed Detroit to establish its vaunted ground game. That's one reason why the Bills only allow 117.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them in the middle of the pack at 14. But make no mistake, Buffalo can be run on. That will be important for the Patriots as they try to possess the ball with Stevenson and Gibson, who both ran well in Arizona at times. Gibson in particular has been effective with limited touches so perhaps it's time to increase his workload to see if he can build off that. Buffalo should improve in this area with the return of linebacker Matt Milano, who's played the last two games after missing the entire season with a biceps injury. He is still working back into form. Look for Alex Van Pelt to run it early in an effort to shorten the game.

When the Patriots pass - Edge: Bills

The numbers for the Bills secondary aren't much better, but like the run defense the offense sometimes dictates those scenarios. Buffalo has allowed 40-plus points in each of the last two games as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff lit it up through the air. But much of Goff's success came in comeback mode as the Bills played the entire second half with at least a two-score lead. Still, the Bills secondary of Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson with safeties Damar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis has struggled. Douglas missed the Lions game with a knee injury, so his status is uncertain. The problem for the Patriots may be pass protection as the Bills can apply pressure with Greg Rousseau (7.5 sacks), A.J. Epenesa (5) and the ageless Von Miller (4). They can be especially tough when the opponent is one-dimensional playing catchup, which is often the case against Buffalo. Drake Maye will also be playing his first career game in bad weather (presumably), so that's an element worth watching for the rookie. The receivers haven't been able to create many plays in recent weeks, and Buffalo won't make it easy on Sunday.

When the Bills run - Edge: Bills

Buffalo's ground game has become a weapon thanks to the stellar play of third-year running back James Cook. He leads the team with 828 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has done a great job of balancing the Bills offense since taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 season and the Bills offense has taken off under his direction. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have Josh Allen's legs to fall back on as well. Allen averages 5.3 yards per carry, many on designed runs, and has 484 yards and 11 touchdowns to his credit. Rookie fourth-round pick Ray Davis (357 yards, 3 TDs) also contributes to the running game. Meanwhile, stopping the run has been a going concern for the Patriots all season. After a couple of outings where the performance showed signs of slight improvement, Arizona's James Conner dominated last week in the desert with 110 yards on just 16 carries and the Cardinals averaged 5.1 yards on 32 carries. Things won't get any easier against a physical Bills front that is perfectly content to play power football and grind it out between the tackles, especially in bad weather.

When the Bills pass - Edge: Bills

Allen is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season and is playing arguably the best football of his career. After losing his top two targets in the offseason (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis), Allen has been even better without them. Former fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir has emerged as his top option with 71 catches for 774 yards and four touchdowns, but he is by no means alone. Allen loves his tight ends and uses both often. Dalton Kincaid is coming off a knee injury that shelved him for a month but still has 38 catches for 409 yards and a pair of TDs while Dawson Knox (19-285-1) chips in as well. Rookie Keon Coleman also has dealt with injuries but is a big-play threat who averages almost 21 yards per catch on 23 receptions. The backs are involved in the passing game as well with Cook (29 catches), Ty Johnson (16) and Davis (13) all contributing. Allen also benefits from solid protection and has been sacked just 13 times this season. As a result, he's in the midst of his best season, completing 65 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns against just five picks. The Patriots secondary has struggled lately, especially against tight ends as Jonnu Smith and Trey McBride enjoyed huge days in recent weeks. The one exception has been Christian Gonzalez, who was outstanding against rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. in Arizona. Gonazlez may have played the best game of his career, limiting Harrison to two catches on six targets, but he'll need some help from his mates in this one.

Special Teams - Edge: Patriots

Neither team has been terribly consistent on special teams this season, but the one bright spot for the Patriots has been Marcus Jones on punt returns and that's enough to earn the edge. Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass has struggled most of the year after ending the Bills season in the playoffs last January when he missed a potential game-tying field goal in the final minutes. That has carried over to 2024 as he's missed nine kicks (five field goals, four PATs) thus far. In fairness, Bass is 21 of 26 on field goals and 50 of a whopping 54 on PATs. As a point of comparison, Joey Slye is 19 of 20 on PATs and 23 of 30 on field goals, so he is struggling on far fewer attempts. Bills punter Sam Martin doesn't get much work but has 21 kicks downed inside the opponents' 20 against just four touchbacks. Bryce Baringer averages 50.4 yards on his 60 punts for New England but the net drops to just 41.2 due to his eight touchbacks and some shaky coverage. Buffalo's Brandon Codrington handles punts and kicks and has some big plays to his credit. He took a kick back 53 yards earlier in the season and averages 27.8 yards on eight attempts, and 11.2 yards on 25 punt returns including a 29-yarder.

QUICK HITS

  • The Patriots have recorded 78 wins over the Bills, the most by the Patriots against any one opponent. The Jets are second on that list with 75 wins by the Patriots.
  • The Buffalo Bills snapped a streak of 13-straight road losses to the Patriots, including 12-straight wins by the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with their 17-9 win in the 2014 regular season finale on Dec. 28, 2014.

TALE OF THE TAPE

2024 REGULAR SEASON NEW ENGLAND BUFFALO
Record 3-11 11-3
Divisional Standings 4th 1st
Total Yards Gained 4,095 5,174
Total Offense (Rank) 292.5 (30) 369.6 (7)
Rush Offense 119.3 (14) 130.8 (9)
Pass Offense 173.2 (32) 238.8 (7)
Points Per Game 17.0 (31) 31.8 (2)
Total Yards Allowed 4,818 4,837
Total Defense (Rank) 344.1 (21T) 345.5 (23)
Rush Defense 127.4 (21) 117.7 (14)
Pass Defense 216.7 (16T) 227.8 (25)
Points Allowed/Game 24.1 (23) 22.1 (12)
Possession Avg. 29:20 29:53
Sacks Allowed/Yards Lost 45/301 13/61
Sacks Made/Yards 27/151 32/214
Total Touchdowns Scored 24 55
Penalties Against/Yards 92/763 86/660
Punts/Avg. 60/50.4 44/46.6
Turnover Differential -7 (25T) +18 (1T)

CONNECTIONS

FORMER PATRIOTS

  • None

FORMER BILLS

  • DB Alex Austin: 2023 (Rd. 7, Pick 252)
  • TE Coach Bob Bicknell: 2010-11 (Tight Ends), 2012 (Wide Receivers)
  • Off. Coord. Alex Van Pelt: 1994-03 (QB), 2006-07 (Off. Quality Control), 2008 (Quarterbacks), 2009 (Off. Coord./Quarterbacks)
Patriots defensive lineman Christian Barmore sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17).
Patriots defensive lineman Christian Barmore sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17).

WHAT TO LOOK FOR...

  • QB Drake Maye had his second-straight game completing 80% of his passes after finishing 19-of-23 for 202 yards for an 82.6 completion percentage at Arizona last week. In Week 13 vs. Indianapolis on Dec. 1, he finished 24-of-30 for 238 yards for an 80.0 completion percentage. The only other Patriots quarterback to ever have back-to-back games with an 80-percent completion percentage was QB Mac Jones in 2021 (11/14) at Cleveland with an 82.6 completion percentage and at Atlanta (11/18) with an 84.6 completion percentage.
  • Maye can become the first rookie in NFL history to complete at least 80% of his passes in three-straight games. QB Jayden Daniels from Washington has also completed at least 80% of his passes in his last two games. QB Jared Goff of Detroit was the last quarterback to complete at least 80% of his passes in three-straight games, a milestone he reached earlier this season.
  • Maye is averaging 8.5-yards per rush with 42 rushing attempts for 359 yards. The highest rushing average for an NFL quarterback in a single season is 8.5 by Michael Vick in 2006 with Atlanta when he had 123 rushing attempts for 1,039 rushing yards (minimum of 30 rushing attempts).
  • Maye has a 68.5 completion percentage (191-of-279) so far in 2024. The highest completion percentage for an NFL rookie quarterback was 67.8% in 2016 by Dallas QB Dak Prescott.
  • RB Rhamondre Stevenson moved into ninth place on the New England all-time rushing list with 3,005 yards and needs 176 rushing yards over the final three games to move past Corey Dillon (3,180) into eighth place on the all-time list.
  • TE Hunter Henry enters this week's game against Buffalo with a team-leading 62 receptions for 635 yards. His 62 receptions are a single-season career high. He needs 18 receiving yards to set a new career-high mark. He had 652 receiving yards in 2019 when he played for the L.A. Chargers. Henry is fifth in receptions and sixth in receiving yards among tight ends in 2024.
  • Henry has two games with 8 receptions in 2024 – vs. Seattle (9/15) and at Jacksonville (10/20). If he records 8 or more receptions against the Bills, he will be the first New England tight end since TE Rob Gronkowski in 2017 with at least three 8-plus reception games.
  • Henry enters this week ranked fifth among New England tight ends with 195 receptions and needs 5 receptions against Buffalo this week to become the fifth New England tight end to reach 200 receptions.
  • Henry has a streak of 17-straight games with at least one reception and will look to extend that streak with a reception this week against Buffalo. His streak is the longest streak for a Patriots tight end since Martellus Bennett's streak of 18 games extending from 2016 to 2017. The last game when Henry did not have a reception was on Nov. 26, 2023 at the New York Giants.
  • CB Christian Gonzalez returned a fumble 63 yards for a touchdown at Miami on Nov. 24. If Gonzalez scores on defense this week, he will be the first Patriots player with at least 2 defensive touchdowns in a single season since S Kyle Dugger had 3 defensive touchdowns in 2023, the most for the team since the 1970 merger.
Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) against the Buffalo Bills.
Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) against the Buffalo Bills.

BROADCAST INFORMATION

TELEVISION: This week's game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with Charles Davis as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will provide analysis from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Kimani Morales and directed by Andy Freedman.

LOCAL RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub is the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. A complete listing of the network's 33 stations can be found here. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.

For information on how to stream the game please visit our Ways to Watch guide.

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