The Patriots are heading to Orchard Park for their first matchup this season with the Bills, a model organization for New England's rebuild.

While times for the Patriots right now, Buffalo has won five consecutive division titles and is vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. But, as we know for our division rivals in western New York, the shoe used to be on the other foot between these two teams.

The Bills fortunes began to change for the better when they selected QB Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Beyond the Patriots hoping for the same lift from their young QB, there are several comparisons to draw between the two. Allen was a raw but incredibly talented prospect. Like Patriots rookie Drake Maye, Allen didn't have instant success in the league, finishing his rookie season with comparable stats to Maye's numbers. Many of his teammates have referred to Maye as "Josh Allen 2.0" due to his similar skill set. Both quarterbacks have great size, elite arm talent, plus-mobility, and poise. The two passers can win from the pocket, but their superpower is creating plays out of structure.

The hope is that Maye, who has flashed franchise quarterback potential, will develop into the Patriots version of Allen. However, the steps the Bills took to get Allen to this point were critical to his success. Even as an Allen fan, you have to admit that it easily could've gone the other way for him. Allen was a volatile prospect who needed the proper development early in his career. Many pundits doubted that Allen would develop into a starting quarterback, let alone the current MVP frontrunner.

On a positive note, Maye is slightly ahead of Allen at this point in his career. For example, in Allen's first-ever start vs. the Patriots, he completed just 48.8% of his passes with two interceptions and a QBR of 16.5 out of 100. Allen's accuracy was erratic, he didn't see the field well, and although the raw ability was there, putting the whole package together was considered a stretch at times. To Allen's credit, he worked at his craft to improve.

Along with pairing him with quarterback developer Brian Daboll for his first four seasons, the Bills traded for star receiver Stefon Diggs to expedite Allen's development. They then continued drafting talent on offense and pivoted away from Diggs in the second stage of Allen's career, leaning more on explosive RB James Cook, first-round TE Dalton Kincaid, and shifty slot receiver Khalil Shakir while acquiring veteran Amari Cooper via trade. Buffalo has also built up its offensive line to sixth in pass-blocking win rate and 16th in run-blocking win rate this season.

Daboll became the head coach of the Giants due in some degree to his work with Allen. Buffalo initially got their replacement for Daboll wrong with Ken Dorsey but quickly course-corrected to up-and-coming play designer Joe Brady. As we'll explain, the Allen-Brady pairing is on a heater. It's the perfect blend of an elite quarterback peaking with a play-caller who can maximize Allen's immense physical tools.

In this week's preview, we'll give you a sample of how Allen and Brady have propelled the Bills to the second-ranked offense in DVOA and points per game (31.8) this season. Plus, we'll discuss Maye's first matchup against Sean McDermott's defense -- ranked 10th in DVOA through 15 weeks -- a system that even Tom Brady problems.

Let's break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and the Bills on Sunday.

Patriots Defense vs. Bills Offense: How the Bills Built a Scheme Around QB Josh Allen

After studying the Bills offense on film, the number one takeaway was how well Brady designs plays to put defenses in binds by leveraging Allen's physical traits.

Following last week's loss to the Cardinals, New England's hesitancy to use Maye's mobility as an advantage was a big talking point. The Pats have dabbled in play designs where Maye's rushing ability is a factor, and the rookie ranks fourth among quarterbacks in scramble yards this season (361). However, it's not something they've majored in yet, and a debate about how much the Patriots should feature Maye as a runner more came to a head when they were stuffed on consecutive traditional under-center runs, resulting in a turnover on downs at the Cardinals four-yard line last week.

When you watch the Bills offense, it's intriguing to see what the Patriots might do in the future with Maye. Brady is a play-designing darling because he uses motion and formations to create space and numbers, which are advantages for Buffalo's offense. The Bills rank fifth in motion rate, which they use to pull defenders out of the space they're trying to attack in the defense. They're also the league leader in trips (3x1, empty) usage and tap into 4x1 formational spacing. Although they have a great passing game, Buffalo is third in rush DVOA, and a lot of that revolves around Allen.

In the run game, the Bills go-to scheme is a long (tackle) trap play where they often pair a read-option for Allen with a bubble screen on the perimeter. By putting three receivers to Allen's right, the defense must match that side with three defenders, or they'll be short numbers on the screen, triggering a throw to the outside. On the run action, Allen is reading the unblocked front-side end. When the end stays outside, Allen hands it off to Cook giving the Bills numbers to the backside for a 41-yard touchdown.

Buffalo punches the ball into the end zone using similar concepts in the red zone. Above, the Bills are running their "bash" scheme. As you can see, the play's options puts the defense in a blender, and Allen walks in for six. Later in the game, the Bills ran a similar scheme where Allen got a "give" read, so he handed the ball off to Cook, who walked in for an easy touchdown of his own.

Buffalo is also very creative in the passing game, using Allen's ability to run the ball as a threat to the defense. This time, the Bills put six offensive linemen on the field, which they do at a league-high rate (15.4%) and then mimic the long (tackle) trap scheme shown above. The defense has to respect the run threat, which gets the second level flowing away from the delayed release by the tight end, and Allen throws a "pop" pass for a chunk gain.

In this clip, the Bills run a fake orbit sweep into a running back wheel. The Lions match the motion, which tips off Allen that it's man coverage, clears the space for the wheel, and Allen drops a dime in the bucket to RB Ty Johnson.

Like in all sports, talent always wins. It's certainly fair to say the Bills offense is loaded with talent. Still, Allen's elite traits and Brady's schematic chops are a perfect blend of offensive football. The Patriots must similarly maximize Maye's abilities to compete with the Bills.

Patriots Offense vs. Bills Defense: Drake Maye's First Matchup vs. McDermott's System

Moving over to the other side of the ball, Maye will face a Bills defense that has been statistically good since McDermott took over as head coach in 2017.

Over the last five seasons, Buffalo has ranked 11th, first, second, and 12th, and this season, they're 10th in DVOA despite being in a transition period at multiple positions. The Bills moved on from longtime defensive backs Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White last offseason. Plus, they've played most of the year without star LB Matt Milano, who is back after tearing his biceps during training camp last summer. Although they've allowed 86 points in their last two games, the Bills defense is top-10 again in DVOA.

Schematically, Bill Belichick once pointed out that McDermott's defenses aren't game-plan defenses. The Bills are a 4-3 over nickel defense that plays a lot of zone coverage. Buffalo only plays man coverage on 21.9% of their coverage snaps, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. They'll play slightly more man-to-man on third down as most teams do, but McDermott's defenses specialize in split-safety zones.

Mainly, the Bills major in split-safety coverages like cover two or cover six and cover three "buzz" coverages, where they start in two-high and then rotate into a single-high coverage. Buffalo doesn't blitz much, ranking 31st in blitz rate (18.5%) with the fourth-highest four-man rush rate (77.8%). They're also not a heavy disguised pressure defense, using creepers or simulated pressures at a below-average rate. Rather than overwhelming you with scheme, this is a very structurally sound defense.

The question is: will the Bills be more aggressive? Last week, Arizona played more man coverage than they typically do because they didn't fear New England's outside receivers. The Cardinals played a 50 percent man coverage rate in the first quarters, which might've surprised the Patriots. Buffalo has man and man-blitz schemes in their bag, so we'll see if they bring them out. My guess is the Bills won't want to put their man schemes on film this late in the season, opting to play the Pats straight-up knowing they're more talented. But we'll see.

Assuming the Patriots see Buffalo's typical brand of football, Maye has fared well against split-safety defenses this season. According to NextGen Stats, Maye has the third-highest yards per pass attempt (9.3) and is first in EPA per drop-back against cloud coverage, which Buffalo uses at the second-highest rate in the NFL (34.2%). You never know what you're going to get from these Patriots, especially along the offensive line. But, on paper, Maye has done well against split-safety zone defenses.

The passing concepts the Patriots have used most frequently against split-safety zones are their high-low combinations (bow), four-strong flood concepts, and cross-sit out of 12 personnel.

Here, New England is running a staple scheme in the Maye offense against a cover-two defense. To Maye's right, the idea is to put the linebacker (hook) in conflict. The linebacker can connect to the arrow route or stay in the dig window but can't cover both. When the defender connects to Hunter Henry's route, Maye briefly holds the MIKE in the middle of the zone and then fires the dig route to Kendrick Bourne by anticipating the zone window.

In London, the Pats faced a less effective but similar cover two-heavy defense in the Jaguars. One concept that worked well was creating a four-receiver side to stretch out Jacksonville's zone structure. They then ran post-wheel-stick to that side, and Maye fit the ball into a tight zone window to Henry on the stick route for a nice again.

Lastly, New England has spammed this cross-sit concept out of 12-personnel throughout the season. By running one of their two tight ends across the field, the crosser serves as either a man-beater or a way to stretch out zone coverage. This time, the crosser stretches out the short zones over the middle of the field, and Austin Hooper sits down in the void for Maye.

Ultimately, this week's starting point for the Patriots offense is playing fundamentally sound football. For example, the first three drives vs. the Cardinals were sloppy, with a litany of errors along the offensive line and conservative play-calling. Before they can start worrying about game-planning the Bills, they must get their own house in order.

That said, Maye has picked apart defenses that play a similar style to the Bills. In his first time seeing Maye, it'll be interesting to see how McDermott game-plans him and if the Patriots rookie can solve a defense that has given New England's quarterbacks problems.

Key Matchups

LT Vederian Lowe vs. Bills EDGE Greg Rousseau

The Patriots need a bounce-back performance from their left tackle after a rough game in Arizona. Rousseau, who leads the Bills with 7.5 sacks and 59 pressures, is a long-armed rusher who can use his length to separate from blocks and dent the pocket. The Bills edge rusher is an up-and-coming player in this league who won't be an easy matchup for Lowe.

LG Layden Robinson vs. Bills DT Ed Oliver

During his Wednesday press conference, head coach Jerod Mayo said, "It really starts with Ed Oliver" when discussing the Bills defense. Oliver is a twitched-up interior rusher who makes up for being undersized with explosive movements, like a discount Aaron Donald (no disrespect to Oliver. He's really good, but nobody is Donald). Oliver ranks second on the team with 32 pressures. My guess is Oliver will rush as a three-technique over Robinson's outside shoulder. That'll be a huge test for the Pats rookie.

Patriots Safeties vs. Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

After allowing nine catches for 87 yards to Cardinals TE Trey McBride, Kincaid is up next for a defense that ranks 23rd in yards per game allowed to tight ends (57.0). Kincaid doesn't put up huge numbers, but he's one of Buffalo's best answers vs. man coverage. My guess is the Bills will attack the Pats linebackers and safeties with Kincaid and their backs like everyone else does, staying away from Christian Gonzalez, who will likely cover Amari Cooper on Sunday.

DT Davon Godchaux vs. Bills OTs Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown

Since signing with the Patriots in 2021, Godchaux has had some monster games against Buffalo by picking on their old center, Mitch Morse. The Pats NT has put up games with 5, 5, and 3 run stuffs vs. the Bills, a gap-run heavy team as we highlighted above. With the long trap being their staple play, the thought here is that Godchaux could see more time playing the 4i (B-Gap) or five-technique (over the tackle), where he can compress the point of attack.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer