The Patriots wrap up their season in Sunday's regular-season finale vs. the Bills at Gillette Stadium, and it's fair to wonder how meaningful this game is for the two AFC East rivals.
For Buffalo, the division champs are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs with a 13-3 record. The Bills have nothing to play for, with head coach Sean McDermott acknowledging that he'll rest his starters. According to McDermott, star QB Josh Allen will play vs. the Patriots to keep his consecutive starts streak alive, but Allen will exit the game for backup Mitchell Trubisky quickly, with Buffalo playing a mix of starters and backups.
From a Patriots angle, New England missed its opportunity to build any late-season momentum heading into the 2025 offseason with a disappointing loss to the Chargers. They were more competitive in Buffalo two weeks ago, but that moral victory was erased by a 40-7 loss to LA. At this point, the ship has sailed on finishing the year on an upward trajectory, and beating the Bills backups won't make anyone feel better.
The other angle to Sunday's game is New England being in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft. Although it's not where they want to be, the Patriots benefit greatly from securing the first-overall pick in next April's draft. With the Bills resting their guys, you don't get much of a moral bump from winning this game, so there's an argument to be made that losing the finale to Buffalo is in the best interest of the franchise long-term.
With the franchise's future already rostered, the Patriots can use the top pick to build the roster around rookie QB Drake Maye. Ideally, the Pats could trade the pick to a QB-needy team, moving down in the top 10, where they can still secure a blue-chip prospect while receiving a haul for the No. 1 pick. However, you can't expect the players and coaches participating in Sunday's game to tank. They're coaching and playing for their futures in the NFL, whether that's with the Pats or elsewhere. Earlier this week, head coach Jerod Mayo gave the only answer he could when asked about the goal on Sunday.
"100 percent focused on beating the Buffalo Bills," Coach Mayo said. "I've never been a part of a team, as a player or as a coach, going into a game not wanting to win. It's not going to change today, so that's my message to the team." Fans might be disappointed with that answer, but Mayo isn't going to say, "We are purposely going to lose this game to get the No. 1 pick." It's not how it works at the player and coach levels in pro sports.
On Wednesday, Coach Mayo and Maye indicated that the rookie will start vs. the Bills. However, Coach Mayo's answer, combined with Maye popping up on this week's injury report with an injury to his throwing (right) hand, left the door open for all possibilities.
"Drake is our starting quarterback. If he's healthy and ready to go, as we go through this week of practice, then he'll play," Mayo told reporters.
All signs point to Maye starting vs. the Bills. After getting his "bell rung" last week, Maye is not currently in concussion protocol. However, Maye's banged-up throwing hand gives the team a reason to sit him, while it also wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots play multiple quarterbacks on Sunday, possibly to get a look at sixth-rounder Joe Milton.
For those who do play, it's one last audition for the 2025 roster, with this scribe evaluating a specific list of younger players: C Cole Strange, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, LG Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker, TE Jaheim Bell, S Marte Mapu, S Dell Pettus, CB Alex Austin, CB Isaiah Bolden, CB Marcellas Dial, and Milton.
Ultimately, one good performance in Week 18 won't sway you into thinking anyone is suddenly an impact player. But, almost like the preseason, it's a constant evaluation process in the NFL. Furthermore, we must discuss some specifics about this matchup as we do every week. At the end of the day, the Patriots coaches can't abandon the players. They're going to game plan for the Bills and try to put players in positions to succeed.
For one last time this season, let's break down the chess match between the Patriots and Bills in Week 18.
Patriots Offense vs. Bills Defense: Prepping QB Drake Maye, Assuming he Plays, for his Second Start vs. Buffalo
Although it sounds like the Bills will treat Sunday's tilt like a glorified preseason game, it's still important for Maye to play well against whoever is out there for Buffalo this week.
The argument for playing Maye is to build confidence and end the year on a high note after a rough performance for the team a week ago. Coach Mayo's decision to play Maye seems to stem from the fact that nobody in the organization wants a lopsided loss to the Chargers to be the lasting image of the quarterback's rookie season. That said, if Maye lights up Buffalo's "B" team, we have to keep it in perspective. Obviously, any success Maye has won't necessarily mean much in the bigger picture.
Given that the Bills aren't going all in to win this game, it also stands to reason that Buffalo won't throw the kitchen sink at Maye. The guess here is that the Bills will call the game similarly to the Week 16 matchup while possibly mixing in even more base coverages, seeing that some players participating won't have as much experience as their regulars.
In Week 16, the Bills spun the dial on the rookie quarterback. Buffalo used disguised pass rushes while making him read out post-snap coverage rotations. Buffalo also learned that Maye is very successful even as a rookie against split-safety or cloud coverages, like cover-two, quarters, and cover-six, which they played 15 times. In those 15 drop-backs, Maye was 12-for-12 for 150 yards and a touchdown. When the Bills played post-safety structures, like cover one (man) and cover three, Maye was just 10-for-21 for 111 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Maye has been one of the best passers in the NFL vs. split-safety coverages this season. According to NextGen Stats, the Patriots quarterback ranks eighth in EPA per drop-back (+0.14) with a league-best +7.5% completion percentage over expectation. This week, it just so happens that Buffalo ranks fourth in split-safety coverage usage (52.4%).
When the Bills played their staple split-safety schemes, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt called things like HOSS Juke, the bow concept (high-low), and four verticals to give Maye answers. Above, Maye throws the outside hitch in HOSS against a bailing corner in quarters, hits the spot route in the bow concept, and splits the safeties on the seam by throwing off the Tampa-2 linebacker in the middle of a cover-two zone.
Although he had his moments, the Bills were more successful with single-high safety coverages vs. Maye in Week 16. The most common reasons those coverages worked better were because of New England's receivers struggling to defeat man coverage (4-for-16, 65 yards, TD, INT) and Buffalo effectively blitzing the rookie in man coverage (70.6% blitz rate, 58.8% pressure rate).
In his four completions vs. man coverage, the theme was Maye completing passes while under pressure. Above, the Pats give Maye a man-to-man indicator and run a Y-cross scheme for tight end Hunter Henry. The twist blitz from the second level wins, as does pass-rusher Von Miller off the right edge, and Maye stares down the barrel to hit Henry to move the chains on third down.
The most important thing is for Maye to get out of Sunday's game healthy. The last thing the Patriots need is for Maye to sustain an injury, putting a healthy offseason to work on his craft in jeopardy. From this perspective, it's debatable whether or not Maye should play in this game at all. Still, those decisions are above our pay grade, so New England ought to make it worth it.
Along those lines, you don't want to see Van Pelt being reckless with his play-calling for Maye. Still, since he will likely play, you might as well use Sunday's game as a confidence builder. To make that a reality, New England has to be ready for Buffalo to replicate the aspects of their Week 16 plan that worked against the Pats QB1, like man-blitz schemes.
Hopefully, we all come out of Sunday's game feeling better about the direction of the offense.
Patriots Defense vs. Bills Offense: Anticipating the Bills Plan for Backup QB Mitch Trubisky
Moving over to the defense, it'll be Trubisky getting the majority of the reps for Buffalo, with MVP candidate Josh Allen resting up for the Wild Card playoffs next week.
Trubisky started against New England last season in Pittsburgh, a 21-18 win for the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots squad. Trubisky struggled in that Thursday night matchup, finishing 22-of-35 for 190 yards with a touchdown and an interception while subtracting -0.19 expected points per drop-back. As we head into draft season, Trubisky, a former second-overall pick by the Bears, is a cautionary tale on reaching for a quarterback in the first round.
In college, Trubisky ran an RPO-heavy offense at North Carolina that didn't ask him to execute pro-style footwork or progressions. His ball placement was sporadic, he wasn't asked to make throws into NFL-sized windows, and there were concerns about his pocket awareness. However, Trubisky was a top-10 lock because he looked the part: great size, big arm, and athletic. Casuals compared Maye to Trubisky, but the reality is that Maye, under a different coaching staff in Chapel Hill, had far more translatable reps to the pros than Trubisky at UNC. Frankly, it was lazy helmet scouting that's already being debunked by Maye's rookie season.
As for the Bills offense with Trubisky, Buffalo ran their base stuff with their backup QB in the preseason. Trubisky isn't the athlete that Allen is, but he can run a bit, so the Bills still baked him into their run game with tackle-trap RPOs and other staples they run with Allen.
The Bills will likely run the ball plenty to keep this clock running and get out of Foxboro healthy. Then, they'll probably script play-action off their runs. For example, Buffalo likes this fake tack-trap play-action scheme where they'll hit the crossers over the middle after moving the linebacker level out of the passing lane with the run action. They'll usually have Allen as a "spinner" with orbit motion with their starters, but Trubisky ran a more basic version of the same scheme in the preseason.
In the drop-back passing game, expect the Bills to give Trubisky man-beaters like mesh-rail and bunches/stacks to give him easy answers. Trubisky isn't accurate enough to consistently fit the ball into tight windows, but he did well with the stagnant routes in Bills OC Joe Brady's system, like outside hitches, the "sit" route in mesh, and rub routes underneath the defense where receivers sat down for him on easy completions.
Last season, the Patriots sat in zone coverage on 70.7% of Trubisky's drop-backs to limit his mobility and force him to pick them apart from the pocket. Then, they turned to man coverage on third down, often bringing pressure in those situations. With Coach Mayo and DC DeMarcus Covington still around, my guess is they'll try something similar, knowing that Trubisky doesn't have the accuracy from the pocket to beat zone coverage.
Schematically, there won't be any major takeaways from this game. However, the Pats young defenders in the secondary could make one last positive impression in an audition for roles in 2025. For example, safeties Marte Mapu and Dell Pettus have come on of late, while corners Isaiah Bolden and Alex Austin have the skill sets (length+speed) to be viable depth.
With the Patriots needing to use high-end assets on the offensive line, wide receiver, and in the front seven, it would be good to build out their depth in the secondary with their current group.
Key Matchups
RT Caedan Wallace vs. Bills EDGE Javon Solomon
We're making two assumptions here. First, the Patriots will start the third-rounder at right tackle, and second, Buffalo will rest Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, and Von Miller. Wallace had some nice moments in the run game but had a tough loss against a power rush in 14 snaps vs. the Chargers. The rookie's pass-blocking ability is the biggest question right now. It appears that he can run block at this level, but Wallace still needs to prove himself in pass protection. Solomon is an undersized, high-motor edge rusher with juice in the pass rush in a Joshua Uche mold, so it's a good test to see if Wallace can handle Solomon on passing downs.
C Cole Strange vs. Bills DT DeWayne Carter
After a solid first start at center, Strange's goal this week is to cut down on mental errors like a snap kerfuffle and blocking assignments. On a positive note, the former first-rounder looked the part at the pivot, where his athleticism adds the versatility to reach, pull, and send the center on second-level climbs. Carter, a hard-charging downhill interior rusher, is another Bills rookie who will likely get extended playing time on Sunday. We'll see how many true one-on-one matchups Strange has where he's covered up on the line of scrimmage.
CB Alex Austin vs. Bills WR Keon Coleman
Buffalo only has four healthy receivers on their active roster. With three wideouts on the practice squad, they could elevate one to eat up snaps. For now, we'll assume that some of their regulars will play, and as the rookie in the room, Coleman could be among those in the mix. We'd also guess that vet Mack Hollins will play. With the Pats looking for a long-term CB2 opposite Christian Gonzalez, Austin has one last audition to compete for that role in 2025, with Gonzo potentially sitting out due to a concussion. Austin has been solid since returning from injury, allowing three catches for 26 yards with two pass breakups in man coverage since Week 12.
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
