As we turn the page to a Thanksgiving weekend matchup with the Colts at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, a disappointing loss to the Dolphins lingers in one particular way for the Patriots.

For head coach Jerod Mayo's program, the season's final five weeks are about setting a standard for New England Patriots football. There will be games where the team doesn't have it that day. Even in pro sports, it happens, especially to a rebuilding team. You can chalk it up to a bad loss in a venue where the Patriots haven't played well for decades against a quarterback who is now a perfect 7-0 in his career vs. New England in Miami starter Tua Tagovailoa.

We can give the Patriots a mulligan or start talking about setting a higher bar for this team's compete level and attention to detail. Miami was a bad matchup, but that isn't an excuse for going down 31-0 to a division rival with a host of self-inflicted wounds, from 13 total penalties to coverage busts that led to walk-in touchdowns and more moving backward on offense than forward at certain points.

The big thing for the Patriots in the final five weeks is that losing cannot become habitual. New England cannot let that be the new norm, and we all want to see this program moving on an upward trajectory as the season comes to a close. That doesn't necessarily mean winning five in a row, but now is the time to lay the groundwork for building a winning culture around your young franchise quarterback in the making.

This week, the Patriots have an opportunity to put a more competitive product on the field when they host the Indianapolis Colts. We are a long way away from Brady vs. Manning for both these teams, as Indy has lost four of its last five trying to navigate its own ebbs and flows with a second-year quarterback. Although the numbers don't back it up, the combination of Colts HC Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson can be dangerous if you're unprepared for Indy's unique scheme.

After two straight weeks where motion-heavy offenses filled with smoke and mirrors put the Patriots defense on their heels, here comes another offense where New England will see some different wrinkles. Steichen is a good play designer who has an option package featuring Richardson's athleticism with a wide variety of schemes. This isn't an easy matchup for a defense that has struggled recently to be assignment-sound.

Although we all want to talk about Maye and the offense, we will start on defense this week because that side of the ball isn't working right now. The Pats are now 28th in total EPA and 30th in drop-back EPA this season. Offensively, New England should have some opportunities against Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's zone-heavy defense, but this is a big week for Mayo and DC DeMarcus Covington.

Let's break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Colts in Sunday's post-Thanksgiving showdown at Gillette Stadium.

Patriots Defense vs. Colts Offense: Which Anthony Richardson Do the Patriots Get?

The Colts offense was an entertaining study, both schematically with head coach Shane Steichen and with their young quarterback.

Starting with Steichen, the Colts head coach is a bright offensive mind. As a lover of the X's and O's, Steichen's offense hits all the notes of a "modern" NFL offense with a dual-threat quarterback. The Colts HC essentially calls his entire offense out of the shotgun, as Steichen did with Jalen Hurts in Philly. Indy doesn't major in motion, ranking 26th in motion rate (53.5%), so it's a small reprieve from that for the Patriots defense. The Colts are also primarily a three-receiver offense but will sprinkle in 12-personnel on early downs.

From a presentation standpoint, the Colts offense isn't overly exotic like the Dolphins or Rams. However, Steichen is an excellent play-designer and play-caller who can attack opponent tendencies. The Colts head coach will be ready for man coverage from New England, and his early-down option package is as good as any in the NFL.

With an alien playing quarterback, the Colts have it all in their bag from an option-game perspective. Richardson is one of the most uniquely gifted athletes we've ever seen. He tested as the most athletic quarterback in the league's history, posting a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-4, 244 pounds, which is why he went fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Steichen has taken that rare athleticism and built a monster of an option package.

Before we get into the film, the Colts are expected to be without slot receiver Josh Downs, Drake Maye's college teammates, due to a shoulder injury. That's a big loss for Indianapolis, as Downs is a chess piece and chain mover in their offense. The Colts healthy receiver present a difficult size matchup for New England's smaller cornerback room with Michael Pittman Jr. (6-4), Alec Pierce (6-3), and rookie Adonai Mitchell (6-2). Still, Downs is a weapon who Steichen moves all over the formation to find matchups for the shifty wideout. We'll see how the Colts replace that element in their offense.

The Colts run everything from triple-options, gap-read plays, zone-read concepts, quarterback-designed runs, and Philly-style RPO concepts. Along with Richardson, Indy has a healthy Jonathan Taylor at running back to play a two-man game in the backfield. The production hasn't been there for the Colts, but the schemes are challenging to defend.

From this vantage point, the Patriots ability to slow down the Colts early-down offense, specifically their option-run game, is the biggest concern in this matchup. Although he's an inconsistent passer, Indy's rushing attack can be dominant, while keeping the offense on schedule lessens the burden on Richardson's drop-back passing ability.

Call me crazy, but I'm not ready to quit Richardson as a franchise quarterback prospect. Unlike the Pats rookie QB, who was a media-created project, Richardson was an actual project in the draft. He only made 13 collegiate starts, where he was very inconsistent, and that has continued into his pro career. The former fourth-overall pick ranks in the top three in big-time throw rate (6.5%) and the bottom three in turnover-worthy play rate (4.6%) – he's boom or bust.

Maybe film watchers like myself should quit Richardson, who might never be an accurate enough passer to put it all together. However, as it was against the Jets in Week 12, the tape can be terrific. Richardson can make those "wow" throws when his process is clean. There are pinpoint passes versus man coverage, hole shots against zone structures, and moments of coverage manipulation with pump fakes and moving coverage with his eyes.

Plus, Steichen is very good at timing up his play calls to give Richardson the right answers against the coverage the Colts are anticipating. When they play man defenses, Steichen has his fair share of man beaters: mesh crossers, nasty bunches, matchup beaters, and slot verticals where Richardson can attack single coverage downfield.

When it's all working together, the option run-game and a mechanically tied together Richardson, the Colts offense looks viable. The potentially fatal flaw for the Colts QB is inconsistent accuracy stemming from shaky footwork in the pocket. According to NextGen Stats, Richardson's completion percentage over expectation is the lowest in the NFL over the last three seasons (-10.3). The last quarterback to finish a season with a lower CPOE was Zach Wilson in his rookie season with the Jets in 2021.

To cause Richardson to self-destruct, the key is to muddy the pocket. When he has to deal with pressure, Richardson gets bouncy in the pocket, and all the moving parts make it difficult for him to hit the layups. For example, above, the Colts are running the same angle route out of the backfield that he hit Downs on vs. the Jets. This time, Richardson's feet get sloppy, and he misses the open receiver over the middle.

If you could bottle up the big-time plays and hit some more of the layups, Richardson would be a franchise quarterback. But he hasn't put it all together, and that's where the doubt creeps in for him. Still, the Patriots cannot sleep on Richardson and Steichen. The Colts QB is capable of taking over games with his mobility and big-time throws, while Steichen's scheming can put defenses in a blender, especially on early downs when eye discipline and playing assignment-sound football is a must for New England this week.

If the Patriots can handle the Colts early-down offense and force Richardson into a drop-back game, the key becomes making the Colts QB feel the heat to get his feet moving, negatively impacting his accuracy.

Although it's been a bumpy ride for the Colts offense, their scheme and quarterback present plenty of challenges for the Patriots defense.

Patriots Offense vs. Colts Defense: Can AVP Take Down a Predictable Colts Defense?

Moving over to the Patriots offense, Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley runs a system that should be easily game-planned for this week.

Understandably, the confidence level in the Patriots coaching staff out-scheming an opponent right now might be low. However, New England is facing one of the last remaining defensive minds that runs the Seattle-3 system popularized by the Legion of Boom in the early 2010s. Most defenses from the Seahawks coaching tree have evolved into a mix between the Fangio and Seattle-3 systems as buyers into the quarters (cover four) and three-buzz (cover three from an initial split-safety shell) revolution. Those defenses are also adopting pressure schemes to get to exotic four-man rushes rather than relying solely on a four-man rush.

Bradley is staying true to his roots as a Seattle-3 guy. The Colts have the lowest man coverage rate in the NFL (13.3%), majoring in cover three, which they call at the highest rate in the league (45.3%). Indy also doesn't scheme up pressure much, relying on a four-man rush. Simply put, this zone-based defense doesn't blitz quarterbacks much. To that end, this is a game where the defensive scheme shouldn't take the Patriots by surprise, so it should be relatively easy for Van Pelt to have a successful plan for QB Drake Maye on Sunday.

As always, the key to the game will be whether or not New England can block the Colts defensive front. Indy pressure numbers don't jump off the page (16th in pressure rate), but this front has given the Patriots problems in the last few years. Mainly, star DT DeForest Buckner is a mismatch on the interior, with excellent size and initial quickness to get into gaps with his patented arm-over/swim move. If, and it's a big if, the offensive line can give Maye time, there are vulnerabilities in how Indy plays coverage.

For example, the Lions attacked Indy's staple cover three "mable" coverage between the numbers. In this coverage call, the boundary corner is locked into man coverage with the X receiver, while the right safety (to the QBs left) is responsible for any crossing routes coming from the passing strength. Then, the field side plays the down like a standard cover three zone (hook, curl-flat, deep third). In the play above, the Lions attack these coverage rules by running two in-breaking. The right safety has to take the first crosser, so that leaves the zone side to handle the second crosser, and it's a nice gain for Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Jets also attacked the Colts zone coverages by using bootleg schemes. The play fake is a good way to put zone droppers into conflict since they can't drop and play the run simultaneously while moving the pocket is a good way to protect a shaky offensive line.

In the first clip, the Jets are in 13 personnel with three tight ends on the field, lining up in a nub formation where the tight ends are the furthest players out on the right side. New York then throws out of heavy personnel, running boot-action. One of the tight ends vertically releases upfield to run off the deep zone defenders. At the same time, the nickel CB (No. 23) bites on the fake, vacating his coverage responsibilities in the flat, and it's an easy touchdown. Next, Indy appears to be playing more of a match zone, matching vertical stems and passing off shallows. The Jets have the slot from the tight split run a vertical to clear out the nickel, while Davante Adams runs a short spot route. The outside corner over Adams thinks he's passing him off to a short zone defender, but the play fake has the linebackers late to their zone assignments, so Adams is wide open.

With all due respect to Bradley, who runs a sound scheme that has mostly held up over time, the Colts don't put much on tape that surprises offenses. When you play zone-based defenses, the onus is on the play-caller to scheme open receivers, whereas it's more on the players to beat their defender when it's man-to-man.

This week, it's on Van Pelt to push the right buttons against a do-what-they-do defense on Sunday.

Key Matchups

Pats Interior O-Line vs. Colts DT DeForest Buckner

Among interior defenders with at least 100 pass-rush snaps, Buckner ranks fourth with a pass-rush win rate of 15.5%. If that doesn't tell you how dominant he is, Buckner's had two sacks and 10 total pressures in two games vs. the Pats over the last two seasons. His excellent size, length, and power are overwhelming traits, with his patented arm over/swim as one of the most dominant rush moves in football – a huge test for Brown, Onwenu, and whoever starts at left guard (Strange/Robinson).

LT Vederian Lowe vs. Colts EDGE Laiatu Latu

After being selected with the 15th overall pick in last year's draft, Latu is having a nice rookie season, logging four sacks and 31 quarterback pressures. The explosive rookie made waves in college with excellent burst, bend to turn the corner, and a nasty inside rush move to counter over-setting tackles. He's now adding some nuanced hand-fighting to his bag as well with different chops and rips. Lowe needs a bounce-back performance versus an emerging rookie.

S Brenden Schooler vs. Colts QB Anthony Richardson

Long live the Longhorn package! This is one of the best wrinkles this coaching staff has shown all year, and we'll likely see more of it on Sunday. We might even see Schooler in some base packages to combat the Colts read-option/RPO concepts, but even if we don't, he'll surely be out there on third down to spy Richardson.