Following a Patriots loss and Giants win over the weekend, New England enters the final week of the regular season holding the number-one overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The expectations weren't high for the Patriots. Heading into the season, Pats Nation knew that the team had a first-year head coach, a rookie quarterback, and a roster years away from contender status. However, that doesn't mean everyone gets a mulligan, especially after a major letdown in a 40-7 loss to the Chargers on Saturday. Now, as the favorites to land the No. 1 pick with one week remaining, there has to be some soul-searching at One Patriot Place.
Before we can move forward, New England must determine the key reasons for 3-13 and who is a part of the solution. From this perspective, while studying the film each week, the coaching discussion starts on defense. There are issues on both sides of the ball, with a lack of blue-chip talent all over the roster, so maybe my priors are clouding my judgment about this defense. Still, the defense is doing less with more compared to the offense, which we knew was in for a multi-year rebuild around the third-overall pick Drake Maye.
Yes, head coach Jerod Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington have dealt with injuries. Defensive pillars Christian Barmore (blood clots) and LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (shoulder) essentially missed the entire season. Starting safety Jabrill Peppers (off-field) hasn't been available, defensive captain Kyle Dugger is playing through multiple injuries, and the defense also lost top CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) early in the second quarter vs. the Chargers.
If you want to give them another season with a cleaner bill of health, you can certainly play the injury card for head coach Jerod Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington. However, Covington, who joined Bill Belichick's staff in 2017, with Mayo joining two years later, was supposed to carry over a successful defensive system that ranked ninth in DVOA in 2023. Instead, this group has regressed mightily with a defensive-minded head coach and many of the same staffers that were on Belichick's final coaching staff with the Patriots in recent years.
Statistically, New England is now 30th in expected points added per play through 17 weeks. When discussing schemes, third down and red zone defense are where coaches make their money, and the Pats rank 27th and 23rd, respectively, in those areas. While digging deeper into the numbers, a scheme and talent deficiency really emerges when it comes to the defensive front seven for the Patriots.
According to NextGen Stats, the Patriots rank 30th in team pressure rate (28.6%) and have the fewest sacks generated by a four-man pass rush (14). Furthermore, they've plummeted in unblocked pressure rate, or the scheme's ability to create free runners. In their last season under Belichick, the Pats generated unblocked pressures at the highest rate in the NFL (9.8%). This season, that number has almost been cut in half to 5.8% (24th in the NFL).
New England lacks pass-rushers that dictate pass protection schemes, particularly without Barmore. For personnel chief Eliot Wolf, finding a game-changing pass rusher is a top offseason need. Still, when the Patriots dealt pass-rusher Matthew Judon to Atlanta for a 2025 third-round draft choice, a trade that is looking like a win for Wolf, here is what Coach Mayo said about the pass rush without the four-time Pro Bowler:
"We've gone years without having a premier rusher – Chandler Jones, the Judons of the world – but we were able to manufacture pass rush through our stunts and games and our game planning," Coach Mayo said in August. "It's not going to be one person."
To that end, the Patriots have failed to manufacture a pass rush. On Saturday, the Patriots only pressured Chargers QB Justin Herbert on eight of his 41 drop-backs, or 19.5%. And this wasn't a mush rush to keep the quarterback in the pocket game plan. New England blitzed Herbert 13 times and only generated one pressure on those blitzes. Herbert was 8-for-12 for 90 yards when the Patriots blitzed on Saturday.
For example, the Patriots sent pressure on the first third down of the game with a fire zone. New England simulated pressure with six defenders on the line of scrimmage, and Herbert alertly canned the original play call to get LA into the proper protection. Then, the Pats ran a boundary corner blitz, sending top CB Christian Gonzalez from the short side of the field. Despite overloading the right side with droppers off the left to get the protection to slide, the Chargers block the blitz, and Herbert is kept clean to move the chains on the hitch route.
Here's another late-down schemed pressure by the Patriots. This time, it's 4th-and-2, and the Pats send another overload pressure over the right side that the Chargers block well. With time in the pocket, Hebert progresses all the way through his reads to get to the backside dig against a split-safety zone structure with the middle of the field open. Given the down-and-distance and play call, New England is expecting the pass rush to get home to force the ball out. Instead, Herbert has all day to go through his reads until he finds an open receiver against a six-man zone.
Along with sending simulated pressures, the Patriots have always majored in five-man rushes with man coverage on third down. By creating one-on-one matchups with five defenders in the rush, the Pats use line stunts to get guys free in the pass rush. However, those line games haven't been effective this season. In this clip, the Pats run a three-man stunt over the left side that is well-blocked. Herbert, once again, has the time to hit the man-beater on a crossing route to move the chains.
The defense must marry the rush and coverage together to play good pass coverage. The secondary can't be expected to cover all day, while the pass rush needs competitive coverage to force the QB to hold the ball long enough for the rush to get home. That marriage between rush and coverage hasn't been consistent enough, which is why the Patriots rank 31st in EPA per drop-back with one week remaining in the season.
In the interest of fairness, the Patriots have lost key pieces to their defense and lack a pass-rusher who can win without scheme or draw extra attention. That said, New England's schemed rushes are ineffective, which falls on coaching. As the Pats set a course for 2025, they must ask difficult questions about the direction of the defense, which has performed worse relative to expectations compared to the offense.
Here is a review of the Patriots offense and quick-hit film notes from the loss to the Chargers After Further Review.
Patriots Offense Review: What Went Wrong for Maye and Company vs. the Chargers?
After reviewing the film on offense, there are two big-picture takeaways about what went wrong against the Chargers on Saturday.
First, this was my worst-graded game for rookie QB Drake Maye. That, of course, is not all on Maye. His afternoon got off to a shaky start when he was briefly removed from the game to be evaluated for a head injury. He then saw a 48.4% pressure rate, the highest Maye has faced in a game this season, and was blitzed 10 times (32.3%). Along with the Chargers heating Maye up, the Patriots offense obviously lacks talent around the quarterback. Their offensive line features two backup tackles, a rookie left guard, and a new center playing the position for the first time. Besides starting RG Mike Onwenu, there isn't a single other proven starter on the O-Line. Then, there's also a lack of difference-making skill talent around Maye.
There's a play-calling angle with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt as well. My biggest gripe with Van Pelt this week is that he called a few exotic plays that his personnel cannot execute. In Week 17, the Patriots should be able to call double moves, slot passes, and more exotic run schemes with multiple moving parts. However, this group can't do those things, and Van Pelt has to know the offense's limitations and be realistic with the play-calling.
Back to the quarterback, Maye was a net-negative in my grading, with 10 minus plays to six plus plays. Most of the rookie's downgraded plays were due to him struggling against pressure, either leaving the pocket prematurely or not seeing the field well against the blitz. As we explained above, not every pressure is on the offensive line. Sometimes, the defense brings more rushers than the line can block, so it's on the quarterback to beat the free runner by throwing "hot" vs. the blitz. Overall, Maye was 1-for-6 for seven yards, two sacks and two scrambles vs. the blitz.
In some ways, Maye's film this week was reminiscent of Bears QB Caleb Williams's struggles on Christmas Day. Both highly-drafted rookies are learning how to be efficient vs. the blitz. Rather than beating the blitz by making quick decisions as throwers, the two rookies got themselves in trouble by bailing out of the pocket. Maye and Williams are learning that running away from the pressure might've worked in college, but it's harder to outrun NFL defenses.
To be clear, the offense's issues aren't on Drake Maye. It's much bigger than that. But it's a copy-cat league, and if defenses sense that Maye isn't seeing blitzes well, they'll keep blitzing him until he figures it out. Hopefully, these experiences will benefit him in the long run. Maye is still developing, and as a young quarterback, he has shown that he learns best by playing. Every rep gets downloaded into the computer between Maye's ears, and he's better the next time he drops back.
As for the coaching, Van Pelt's two worst plans recently were against Arizona and LA. In both instances, the Pats tried things that were too complicated for this group. It would be nice to graduate to higher-level schemes, but this unit isn't there. As is the case everywhere in pro football, every team wants to upgrade when possible. But it would seem odd to scapegoat Van Pelt, who has Maye's trust with the rookie pointed in the right direction and has very little to work with personnel-wise.
Until the personnel department upgrades his supporting cast, this is what you're going to get on offense: a flashy quarterback who doesn't have the tools to be consistent. Get the kid some help.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Chargers After Further Review
Offense
- Although he technically started this game, lead-back Rhamondre Stevenson only had two rush attempts on 20 total snaps compared to 12 attempts on 28 snaps for Antonio Gibson. Gibson, who has been the Pats best back of late, has cut into Rhamondre's workload. Stevenson's three-lowest snap rates have come in the last five games: Week 12 vs. Miami (42%), Week 16 vs. Buffalo (44%), and this weekend vs. LA (45%).
- Cole Strange didn't look out of place at center. It was far from perfect, with a jailbreak sack on him for snapping the ball early being the most egregious error. Strange was understandably unsure of his assignments at times, hanging onto a double-team too long on a third-and-1 stuff and allowing a free runner from the second level. Furthermore, since he'll be uncovered often, he has to be more active looking for work in pass protection. But, overall, Strange's issues were mostly correctable mental/timing errors. From a long-term viewpoint, I'm still wary of Strange's ability to dig out bigger DTs in the run game. Some of it was on the ball cutting back when he was leveraging blocks to the outside, but Strange is inconsistent in moving those bigger bodies, and that's the name of the game as an interior lineman.
- LG Layden Robinson opened the game with a nice run block on outside zone to catch the second-level blitzer and drive him out of frame – showing off his physicality and play strength. However, Robinson gave up two pressures by being late to pick up second-level blitzers, which has been an issue for him, and didn't ride the backside cut-off long enough on a four-yard run TFL on a pin-pull RPO. Robinson is improving and has good raw power, but the rookie is still a work in progress in pass protection.
- LT Vederian Lowe was competitive for the second consecutive week in 10 one-on-one matchups vs. stud EDGE Khalil Mack. Mack beat Lowe once with power, causing a key incompletion where Bourne was open past the sticks on third down. Those are drive-killers that can't be ignored. Still, Lowe was clean besides that and has done a nice job since bottoming out in Arizona.
- RT Trey Jacobs mostly saw Chargers veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa. Jacobs allowed a pressure to Bosa and one to Mack when he was over his side. The pressure by Bosa came on the Douglas TD, where Jacobs was late off the ball (the rest of the line wasn't). Jacobs's issues getting initial depth in his kick-slide and playing with proper pad level show up every week.
- Mike Onwenu has settled in at right guard in recent weeks. He allowed a hurry when Morgan Fox got too deep into the pocket with power. But, on the whole, Onwenu won his assignments, and the lack of movement in the run game to his side is primarily due to those around him. Onwenu should be the starting right guard moving forward. The tackle experiment needs to be over. Draft/sign a starting right tackle and leave him be, please.
- Rookie RT Caedan Wallace played 14 snaps in garbage time. He had a terrific two-for-one block on a 20-yard run by Gibson and turned out the backside on a four-yard run. However, Wallace also had a rough rep vs. Bud Dupree's power rush, where he ended up on the ground and whiffed on a second-level climb. I'm not going to look too much into 14 snaps in mop-up duty. I'd like to see Wallace start next week.
- WR Kendrick Bourne was open multiple times on this film, with his two catches for 22 yards not doing him justice. Bourne was open for a big play on two vertical routes, one on James's first sack and another on a double move where Maye didn't have enough time in the pocket. Bourne still has occasional mental lapses, but his separation ability is on this tape.
- WR Kayshon Boutte finished through some contact on his four grabs on hitches/slants/unders. However, he continues to let Maye down by giving up on his vertical routes. The Pats dialed up a shot play for Boutte on a double move, where Boutte was supposed to sell a break (dig) and then get vertical. Boutte seemed to slow on the route while the ball was in the air, nearly leading to an interception. This isn't the first time where Boutte hasn't finished his route.
- WR DeMario Douglas made a terrific adjustment back to the ball on his 36-yard touchdown and separated on the first third-down attempt, but Maye wasn't looking his way before leaving the pocket. It would be interesting to see Douglas in an offense where he was complemented by outside receivers who can draw coverage away from the middle of the field.
- The same goes for vet TEs Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Defenses are sitting all over their stick routes and keying on Henry on third downs. The Pats TE duo has become the focal point of opposing defense's game plans.
- QB Pressures allowed: Maye (two sacks), Strange (sack), Gibson (sack), Robinson (four hurries), Jacobs (two hurries), Lowe (QB hit), Onwenu (hurry), Wallace (hurry), Stevenson (hurry).
Defense
- Watched the McConkey touchdown several times, and to be honest, it's unclear exactly what the coverage was. It's zone, so I was wrong in game observations about it being a bracket call (mea culpa). My best guess is cloud coverage (cover-six), where Jones has the deep quarter or is at least supposed to match a vertical from the slot. Dugger's eyes were in the backfield the entire time in his zone drop, so I don't put that on him. Here's how I see the assignments: Bolden (deep-fourth), Jones (deep-fourth), Tavai (curl/flat), Dugger (hook). Jones just got beat.
- The Patriots run defense was more competitive through three quarters. Besides a few third-and-short mishaps, where they were in pass personnel on third-and-3 conversions, the players seemed to take on the challenge of facing a "tough" run game. New England allowed only one explosive run for the game and held the Chargers to 3.75 yards per rush in the first three quarters. There were some run-fit nitpicks from the second level, with LBs again ending up in the same gaps and opening cutback lanes, but on the whole, it was sufficient run defense.
That said, the Patriots continue to leave plays on the field with poor tackling and rallying to the ball. Above, LB Sione Takitaki blows up the lead-blocker in the backfield, forcing the ball to stop, which should lead to a swarm of Pats defenders rallying to the ball to make the third-down stop. Instead, Dobbins stays alive, breaks a tackle attempt by S Marte Mapu, and gets the edge for an eight-yard gain. This happens way too often for this defense, where a play is there to be made in the backfield or at the LOS, but the runner somehow gets out for a positive gain.
- After having his best game of the season a week ago, CB Jonathan Jones really struggled in Sunday's loss. Jones allowed a team-high 91 yards into his coverage, and there was more meat on the bone there. For example, McConkey dropped a back-shoulder throw by Herbert on the Chargers second third down and Herbert missed McConkey on a double move that should've been six in the second half. On McConkey, Jones seemed to be surprised by the rookie's ability to get vertical, anticipating mostly second-level breaks from the LA wideout.
- DE Keion White played a season-low 51% of the defensive snaps, logging two QB pressures with a nice bull rush on rookie RT Joe Alt and a stab-rip move on Chargers LT Rashawn Slater. Those are two good tackles to beat as an edge rusher, but White's run defense regression again popped up on his film. Although he still played a rotational role, White's snaps were decreased.
- LB Anferenee Jennings was the Patriots most effective defender, logging two run stops and four pressures. Jennings set the tone early with a run stuff on LAC's first play from scrimmage and had another one later on in the first quarter. He also had an effective wrap rush on a T/E stunt for a pressure and pushed the pocket well. The only nitpick was that he didn't get enough of a jam on McConkey on a third-and-2 conversion. Jennings is a solid role player and brought it this week vs. the run.
- S Kyle Dugger is still thumping when he gets downhill in the run game (three stops), but his struggles in coverage continued on Saturday. Dugger allowed a 14-yard reception in man coverage and wasn't providing the help his teammates seemed to be expecting on three LAC touchdowns. Austin wanted to pass off Davis to Dugger on the 23-yard TD and was responsible for McConkey's first score. It doesn't seem like Dugger's eyes are in the right places in coverage, and his recovery ability isn't there, likely due to his nagging ankle injury.
- CBs Alex Austin and Isaiah Bolden had some good moments working as outside corners. Austin logged a pass breakup, and Bolden had a screen TFL. However, both also gave up some plays. Mainly, Austin had safety help over the top on LA's first third-down conversion, so he was free to drive that hitch to Johnston and could've come up with a PBU there. Bolden allowed a 15-yard completion on a backside dig with the safety attention on McConkey. They missed Gonzo on that particular play, with Bolden having to take the "X" receiver in single coverage so that the Pats could double McConkey on third down. Overall, these two have promising skill sets as long, fluid corners with the straight-line speed to play on the perimeter.
- LB Sione Takitaki's struggles against the run exemplify the entire defense's regression this season. Takitaki was in the mix on runs of nine yards, six yards, and a third-and-1 conversion, where he didn't play the run blitz well. He was baited out of gaps and over-ran the ball several times to set up cutback lanes. Takitaki was a useful player with the Browns before signing with the Patriots, but partially due to the fact that he didn't have a training camp, his game has regressed. They should be getting more out of Takitaki.
- Although he missed a run tackle (shown above), S Marte Mapu is making some strides. Since getting back in the rotation, Mapu has been much better at being in the right places as a help defender and in "cut" coverage against crossers. He made two key coverage stops, including one on third-and-3 in the red zone, and has been much more mentally locked in lately. With some uncertainty at safety moving forward, hopefully, Mapu has turned a corner.
- Pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue's roughing the passer penalty was a back-breaker with the Chargers in the two-minute drill. The Pats had a perfectly covered passing down to force a throw-away, and Ngakoue hit Herbert late for no reason to put LA into field goal range. Maybe the Chargers get into scoring territory anyway, but that killed any chance at momentum following the lone Pats touchdown drive of the game.
- The interior defensive line was mostly up to the task in the run game. Ekuale had a nice swim move for a run stuff, Godchaux played his game at NT, and Pharms had some nice two-gapping reps. However, this group lacks juice in the pass rush, with only three combined pressures (two by Wise and one by Johnson).
- QB pressures: Jennings (hit, three hurries), White (hit, hurry), Wise (hit, hurry), Johnson (hurry). Run stops: Dugger (3), Tavai, Ekaule, Jennings, Godchaux (2), Pharms, Mapu, Johnson, Takitaki, J. Jones, Ngakoue (1).
- Coverage: JJones (10/8/91 yards/TD), Dugger (4/3/43 yards/2 TDs), Bolden (9/6/38 yards), Tavai (3/3/25 yards), Gonzalez (2/1/19 yards), White (1/1/19 yards), Austin (4/2/17 yards/PBU), Elliss (1/1/14 yards), Pettus (1/1/9 yards), Mapu (1/1/3 yards), Dial (1/0/0).
DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don't necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer
